Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The overall pattern that has kept the Central High Plains region
wet over the weekend will begin to shift eastward by late Monday
as the upper low over the Great Basin begins to lift out across
the Rockies and into the northern high plains. This will push the
frontal boundary that had stagnated over the forecast area east of
the region on Monday, taking the area of heaviest rainfall with
it. Until the widespread area of rain moves further east, the
potential remains for locations mainly in closer proximity to the
front, to experience moderate to heavy rain showers that could
train over the same locations and produce localized flash
flooding. High temperatures on Monday should remain in the 50s
while the overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to
middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Thursday-Friday: Models are in better agreement for this period when
compared to yesterday. ECMWF has come in line with the GFS`s idea of
moving the closed low over the Four Corners, northward into southern
Wyoming. Will see chances of rain and storms through Friday morning,
mainly along and west of the KS/CO border. Daytime highs should
remain below normal with nighttime lows near normal.

Saturday-Sunday: Models are not in agreement for this portion of the
extended. Most global models agree on a closed low and longwave
trough developing over the Northern Plains and deepening
southward. The issue is placement of this feature. ECMWF has it
east of the CWA which would leave our area under the influence of
upper level ridging and dry. GFS brings the feature into Colorado
which would put our area downstream of the trough with better
chances of rain and storms. Forecast is a blend, but leans more
towards the GFS solution. Temperatures should remain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to rotate from the
south to the north across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
Trend is towards IFR and LIFR cigs, however vis has been highly
variable due to ample low level moisture and complications from
moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity. This pattern
should remain in place through most of the TAF period, with
gradual improvement late Monday afternoon and Monday evening
(particularly at KMCK). Confidence is low on exact timing of
possible improvement or deterioration in vis/cigs, so prevailing
conditions were based on persistence and short range model
consensus. Winds should prevail out of the north, with gusts
possible late tonight through tomorrow (around 15-21kt).




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