Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 311922
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.