Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Much of the forecast area (except extreme west and east) caught
underneath mid level dry slot this afternoon which has greatly
diminished precipitation coverage. This looks to continue into the
early evening hours before an increase in moisture moves across the
southern half of the area from southern Colorado around midnight
associated with the approach of an upper trough. After midnight the
plume of moisture slowly lifts northeast favoring areas east of a
line from Norton to Gove and Tribune. With little to no instability
rain showers will be the primary precipitation type. Low
temperatures should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s in far
eastern Colorado with low to upper 50s east of the border.

On Thursday the upper trough and better moisture slowly move east
through mid to late afternoon before ending late in the day.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid 70s to near 80 across
the area. It should be noted that the 18z NAM has come in more
aggressive with qpf tonight and tomorrow. If it verifies
temperatures across the southern half of the area would be much
cooler given extensive low cloudiness and a bit better chance of

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

H5 trough digs in across the region Thursday night, bringing slgt
chc PoPs to the CWA overnight into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances increase as we head into the midday on Friday with a few
strong storms possible mainly during the afternoon/early evening
hours. The trough axis will push to the east late Saturday morning
and limit thunderstorm chances to the eastern most portions of the
CWA. A shortwave will form in the wake of the first trough and bring
another chance of showers and storms to the region on Sunday with
chc PoPs beginning around midday and persisting into the evening,
especially in the eastern portions of the CWA. There could be a few
lingering showers in the region early Monday morning with dry
weather expected to move in during the afternoon. High pressure will
build into the region as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below normal on Friday with highs reaching only
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For Saturday, we can expect warmer
temperatures near normal in the middle 80s. Near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are in the
forecast Sunday through Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period at MCK and
GLD with winds becoming light out of the north northeast and
mostly cloudy skies due to a moist layer mainly between 10kft-
15kft AGL through the overnight hours. After 15Z, winds will
increase some and turn more easterly as high pressure moves into
the region, moisture decreases, and skies become mostly sunny.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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