Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240833
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
133 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

This evening light freezing drizzle and light snow will move in from
the west ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough.
Precipitation should extend over most if not all the Tri-State Area
by midnight local time.  Meanwhile a band of frontogenesis will
develop over the northwest part of the Tri-State Area.  Once this
band forms it will not move for several hours.  Theta-e lapse rates
indicate convective snowfall is likely, which may lead to locally
higher amounts than forecast for Yuma County.

Southeast of the band of moderate to possibly heavy snowfall,
freezing drizzle will occur.  Have moderate confidence regarding
where the cross over from snow to freezing drizzle will be.
Currently have the transition zone extending from Burlington to
Atwood and McCook, with freezing drizzle being the dominant
precipitation type southeast of this line.  If the low level
temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than currently shown, snow
will end up being a bit further south than forecast. However, did
try to take this into account.  If the freezing drizzle ends up
being further north, ice totals will increase for this part of the
Tri-State Area.  Vise Versa if the snow extends further south.  Most
of the freezing drizzle will occur after midnight through Saturday
morning before changing to snow.

Meanwhile the band of snow will move east early Saturday morning.
Precipitation will change to all snow as the band moves east.
Precipitation will end from west to east behind the band Saturday
morning.

As the snowfall ends Saturday morning, northwest winds will
increase, gusting 25-35 MPH, and the sky will clear.  The gusty
winds, combined with the weight of the ice on tree limbs and power
lines, may lead to power outages.

Impacts... Snow packed and/or icy roadways.  Visibility may fall to
less than half a mile under the band of snow during the night. Roads
may become impassable due to the ice.

Looking back at the freezing drizzle event from 12/21/17, only a few
hundredths of an inch of ice occurred that day.  The glaze of ice
lead to hazardous driving conditions, with many slide offs and a few
rollover accidents.  This upcoming event will have much higher ice
totals, so the impacts from ice will be greater.  Foresee roadways
becoming a sheet of ice if they are not already treated.

Due to freezing drizzle impacting the rest of the Tri-State Area
not already in the advisory, have expanded the advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Dry conditions persist into Tuesday when southwesterly flow develops
aloft ahead of a deepening trough on the west coast. Meanwhile at
the surface, a weak cold front approaches the High Plains, bringing
a decrease in temperatures. The upper trough travels from southern
California to the Four Corners region Tuesday night. However,
confidence is low on the timing and track due to model differences.
At this time, this system looks to bring a slight chance for some
rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. Could see some light snow in
the evening if temperatures are cold enough. Fair weather returns
for the end of the work week as ridging builds into the Plains.

High temperatures range from the mid 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday as
the cold front pushes into the area, followed by highs in the 40s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures rebound nicely into the 50s on
Friday. Lows remain in the 20s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1055 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR-LIFR ceilings and visbys associated with stratus/fog,
freezing drizzle, and snow will prevail through ~18Z Sat. Expect
VFR conditions to return 18-21Z Saturday afternoon from west-east with
rapid clearing and NW winds increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts
up to 30-35 knots mid/late afternoon, then decreasing to ~15 knots
after sunset.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...VINCENT


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