Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280851
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THE AFTERNOON
AS GRADIENT RELAXES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SINCE IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO REACH THIS
FAR NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS ON THURSDAY WHEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RETURN TO THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RETROGRADING
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PERSISTENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER HUDSON BAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SETUP LOOKS TO BRING
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FILTER WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LEFT
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE TAFS
WILL BE TIMING THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...WINDS
TURNED WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TIMED THE
FRONT OUT TO EACH OF THE TAF SITES AND ADJUSTED THE WIND DIRECTION
ACCORDINGLY. IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR WINDS DO NOT TURN AS
FORECAST EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST BY 12Z. WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SITES BEFORE 12Z DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ANY CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
MORNING THEN DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



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