Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 090925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Today-tonight...little if any cloudiness expected with the caveat
being possibly some cirrus clouds per 300mb relative humidity if the
models can be believed. Otherwise am expecting northwest winds
across the western 1/2 to 1/3 of the area to increase into the 15 to
25 mph range with higher gusts today with lesser winds across the
east. Winds quickly decrease below 10 mph by sunset then increase
into the 10 to 20 mph range with some gusts by mid evening and
continue overnight. High temperatures in the low to upper 50s. Low
temperatures in the upper teens to around 30 and could be tricky
given the expected increase in west-northwest winds. If enough
mixing develops with the winds lows should be milder then currently

Sunday-Sunday night...little if any cloudiness during the day with
some mid and high clouds moving in from the north during the night.
850mb temperatures warm about 3F to 10F across the area supporting
highs in the low to possibly mid 60s. Low temperatures in the low
20s to low 30s.

Monday-Monday night...some cooler air backs into the area during the
day with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F to 10F across the
area. This would support highs in the low to mid 50s. Low
temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. Northwest winds increase
into the 20 to 25 mph range with higher gusts by late morning and
continue through mid to late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

For the extended period...the region will see amplified H5/H7
ridging over the western portion of the country...w/ a cutoff upper
low/trough combo over the east. The Tri State region lies between
these two systems.

From Saturday night right on thru next Friday...the area will be
under mainly NW flow aloft with WNW flow at the surface. Latest
models runs do bring several shortwaves up and over the upper
ridge...but carry the dynamics north of the area before getting
caught in the circulation of the trough/low to the east.

This is going to bring dry conditions to the area thru the period.
What will be brought to the area though are several periods of windy
conditions on Monday and again on Wed/Thurs. For now with models
showing potential mixing to near 700mb Monday...this looks to be the
strongest potential around 25-35 mph with higher gusts.

West-northwest downslope conditions from the surface up to 500mb
will also bring surface RH readings down to 15 percent or less for
Sunday...and mainly 20 percent or less for areas west of Highway 25
on Monday and Tuesday. Lacking will be the wind criteria to be met
at this time for Fire Wx concerns.

The area will see above normal temps thru the period with highs
Sunday in the 60s tempering down to the 50s for the
remainder...reinforced by CAA with the passage of each shortwave
next week. Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. For KGLD
northwest winds today should gust near 30kts while at KMCK
northwest winds look to be around 13kts with a few higher gusts.
For tonight west to west-northwest winds in the 10 to 15 kt range
for both terminals. Little if any cloudiness expected.


Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for areas generally west of
highway 27. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
are expected and will combine with afternoon humidity values at or
slightly below 10 percent.

For Monday near critical fire weather conditions are expected over
far eastern Colorado and possibly adjacent counties in Nebraska
and western Kansas.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for NEZ079.



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