Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 242001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
As of 4 am CDT, 3 am MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast. Temperatures range from the upper 50s in northeast
Colorado to near 70 in parts of northwest Kansas. Winds are
generally light and variable. However, an outflow boundary is
providing temporary winds from the west for locations east of
Highway 25. Latest WSR-88D radar imagery indicates a band of light
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms moving north along the
Colorado border. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended
from southeast Colorado, across central Kansas, and north toward the
Canadian border. Aloft, an upper level trough is progressing slowly
east from the Four Corners region. It is this trough of low pressure
that will bring the Tri-State Region precipitation chances today.
For today through tonight, an upper level disturbance is forecast to
move across the High Plains. This disturbance should bring scattered
showers, perhaps an isolated storm or two. Overall, instability is
quite poor today in a post-frontal airmass and dry air advecting in
from the north. This dry air is problematic to today`s precipitation
chances and thus leads to a somewhat uncertain forecast. Am more
certain of precipitation chances this evening. High-resolution
guidance members suggest an area of showers and storms developing
over southeast Colorado, sliding northeast across western Kansas
this evening and tonight. With instability remaining quite low, do
not anticipate any severe weather. A strong storm or two, capable of
small hail, can not be ruled out due to the strength of upper level
forcing and development of a low level jet to assist updrafts.
A quiet weather day appears in store for tomorrow in the wake of
today`s passing upper level trough. A few showers/storms may be
ongoing tomorrow morning across northwest Kansas but anticipate
these to quickly slide east by late tomorrow morning. Persistent
cloud cover may keep temperatures cool throughout the day,
particularly along and south of I-70. Made an adjustment to high
temperatures to lower them due to the expected cloud cover.
Precipitation chances return once again late tomorrow night through
Friday night as the next upper level disturbance swings through.
Current guidance indicates higher instability and higher lapse rates
than today/tonight`s system. Therefore, decided to forecast mainly
thunderstorms rather than showers with isolated thunderstorms.
Atmosphere still leaves much to be desired for potential severe
weather. Thus, am not presently anticipating any severe weather.
For tomorrow night/Friday morning, fog may be the bigger story in
terms of hazardous weather. According to mixing ratios, a strong
moisture surge is expected from the southeast. As boundary layer
moisture increases and temperatures cool, am expecting fog and
stratus development. Am somewhat uncertain on fog potential at the
moment due to concerns about radiational cooling potential. For now,
mentioned patchy fog in the forecast but would not be surprised if
some areas of dense fog are realized.
Friday`s temperatures will be impacted by any lingering fog/stratus
from the morning hours. Do expect cloud cover to persist across
locations east of the Colorado border and north of I-70. Therefore,
decided to lower high temperatures from Superblend guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
H5 trough digs in across the region Thursday night, bringing slgt
chc PoPs to the CWA overnight into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances increase as we head into the midday on Friday with a few
strong storms possible mainly during the afternoon/early evening
hours. The trough axis will push to the east late Saturday morning
and limit thunderstorm chances to the eastern most portions of the
CWA. A shortwave will form in the wake of the first trough and bring
another chance of showers and storms to the region on Sunday with
chc PoPs beginning around midday and persisting into the evening,
especially in the eastern portions of the CWA. There could be a few
lingering showers in the region early Monday morning with dry
weather expected to move in during the afternoon. High pressure will
build into the region as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will be below normal on Friday with highs reaching only
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For Saturday, we can expect warmer
temperatures near normal in the middle 80s. Near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are in the
forecast Sunday through Wednesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
However, should a shower or thunderstorm move directly over the
terminal mvfr/ifr visibilities in moderate to heavy rain possible.
Best chance albeit rather low is from taf issuance through the
overnight. Otherwise expect winds from the northeast to north
through the period. Speeds generally around/under 11kts but could
see gusts near 20kts from taf issuance through late this