000
FXUS63 KGLD 120453
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
953 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW STILL IN
PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW US. AT THE SURFACE 1037MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
WITH A LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED WAA ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING NORTH AND EAST
WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HOW WARM TO MAKE TEMPS. AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH SW FLOW SUPPORTING GOOD WAA. MODELS SHOW
H85 TEMPS IN THE 5-7C RANGE...WHICH IF THE GOOD MIXING/WARMING
OBSERVED THE LAST FEW DAYS IS ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE LOW 50S OVER SNOW FREE AREAS. WITH SW WINDS ADVECTING
THESE WARMER TEMPS TOWARDS SNOW COVERED LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WEST
AND NORTHEAST WE SHOULD SEE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE SNOW
PACK. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT HIGH TEMP ON THURSDAY OVER
MCCOOK/ATWOOD/OBERLIN...BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW PACK. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF AFTER TOMORROW THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK LEFT
OVER OUR CWA EVEN IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW 4-5" IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL TAP
INTO SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE VARYING DEGREES OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH COULD REACH THE 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 70S
IN A FEW LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS LOOMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS UPSTREAM WHICH WILL ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB