000
FXUS63 KGLD 210847
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies for all
areas as area remains in cooler airmass on north side of front.
Temperatures are currently ranging in the mid 60s in the far
west...up to the mid 70s in far eastern zones along with light
variable winds.

For the rest of the afternoon on thru the evening hours...high
pressure remains in control during this timeframe providing
another nice cool and dry night. Looking for overnight lows to
range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. With high pressure
nosing southward thru the Plains Region overnight...area will see
a wind shift to the southerly direction.

Going into Thursday...another round of hot weather returns to the
region. High pressure sets up to the east of the area thru the
day...with low pressure/lee-side troughing over the eastern
Rockies. Strong surface gradient/WAA develops by midday over the
entire area. With H5/H7 winds coming from the SW...expecting
strong downslope drying conditions giving the region critical fire
wx conditions. Please refer to the Fire Wx section below.

With the area forecasted to see lower and mid 90s for high temps
Thursday...near record/record high numbers are possible...
especially for locales along and east of Highway 25. Please refer
to the Climate section below for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Sunday-Monday: Very little change in the weather pattern from
Saturday. Will see rounds of showers and storms through Monday.
There will be a chance of some severe storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Model soundings show the main threat to be damaging winds
and hail to around one inch. Models continue to show very high
PWATs, therefore, will have the threat of flash flooding. Current
QPF values show 2-3 inches for the weekend, but could see isolated
higher amounts in any area where training storms set up. Threat of
rain will decrease from west to east through the day and night
Monday. Temps cool into Monday when highs may not reach 60 in
western portions of the CWA. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the
40s, with portions of Yuma County, CO seeing upper 30s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Tuesday should remain dry with temperatures below
normal. Models are depicting our next weather maker in the form of
another closed low/longwave trough forming near the Four Corners
region. Will have a chance of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Temperatures warm to near normal values by the end of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

LLWS will be a concern for the first half of the TAF period. Both
the Goodland and McCook terminals could see strong LLWS up to
40 knots with conditions out around 15Z at both terminals. CIGS
and visibilities are expected to remain VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8
     PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8
     PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...EV