000
FXUS63 KGLD 211910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
110 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE AIDED BY DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 850/700 MB TO PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...20 TO 35 KNOTS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL HAVE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT AND
NEGATE THE LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SILENT POPS. ON THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. NO MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB AND NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STABLE SHOWERS OR MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A LULL TIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. WARMER FRIDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST...LOW TO MID 80S WEST. LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN SETS
UP. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS