Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1054 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...another hot day ensues
as temps are ranging from the upper 80s thru the mid 90s. This range
has been dependent on the amount of high clouds moving thru the area
over the past several hours. Any locales currently seeing temps in
the 80s could see a several degree jump fairly quickly if any breaks
occur in the cloud deck this forecasted highs do
remain intact and will not adjust.

Going into tonight...the cloud deck...which extends back into the
southern Rockies will continue to push across the region. This is
going to keep overnight lows well above normal to the tune of 15 to
20 degrees. Looking for overnight lows to range from the upper 50s
west to the upper 60s in far eastern zones as a result.

For Wednesday...with an upper low digging south along the Pacific
coast and H5/H7 ridge amplifying into the eastern portion of the
country...this puts the CWA under a continuous SSW gradient.
Moisture funneling up between these two systems along a
boundary...will keep increased cloud cover over the area. Potential
for a weak shortwave to move close to the area during the day...but
most of the energy associated with it remains to our SW until after
00z will hold off on mention of rw/trw at this time.
Despite cloud cover...looking for highs to range in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Warmest areas in the SSW where models hint at thinner
cloud cover for more diurnal heating and placement of boundary
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Main weather player during the extended period is the upper trough
now approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will
stall and amplify along the West Coast Wed-Thu before moving over
the Central Rockies Fri-Sun. GFS/ECMWF guidance is fairly
consistent on both the strength and movement of the upper low
through Friday, after which significant differences arise. By
Monday the GFS splits the low and retrogrades one part to Arizona
and subsequently builds an upper ridge over the Central Plains.
The EC meanwhile keeps the trough axis essentially intact over the
Plains. As a result, significant 500 mb height differences exist
late weekend into early next week, ranging from 574 to 588 gdm,
and therefore forecast confidence is low.

The main period of active weather remains in the Fri-Sat evening
timeframe where both models still mostly agree on the placement of
the upper low over the Rockies west of the forecast area.
Precipitation will be focused along and ahead of a slow-moving
cold front which moves from eastern Colorado Friday to central
Kansas Sunday. Low level moisture will increase ahead of the front
in strong southerly flow, enhancing the potential for widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Forecast instability is not forecast to
be all that great, but strong synoptic forcing will likely yield
some severe storms.

Temperatures will continue well above normal Thu-Fri with highs
in the upper 80s ahead of the cold front. Highs will cool into
the 70s Sat-Mon with significant cloud cover as well as precipitation


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions anticipated to persist over the next 24 hours at
both sites. The advertised low level jet has developed and is
already quite vigorous, exceeding 50 kts according to latest KGLD
VAD wind profile. Surface winds are not as elevated as previously
advertised so criteria is likely being met for LLWS. Winds may
shift to southwest this morning as a lee trough edges in. However,
the lee trough retreats to the west by late morning, allowing
south winds to return and increase in speed. With abundant dry air
still in place, clouds below 10 kft are unlikely.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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