Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AND EXTENDED
HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY BY ONE HOUR (NOW EXPIRING AT 8 PM CDT). SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISED AREA TODAY WERE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
TIME OF EXPIRATION...HOWEVER TEMP TRENDS HAD ALREADY BEEN
DECREASING SINCE LAST OB CYCLE AND CONDITIONS WOULD ONLY CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE HOUR. FOR THE ADVISORY MONDAY...I COULD SEE
A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH CONDITIONS STILL RIGHT AT OR AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER 00Z...AND WANTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER
TREND IF THERE IS A REPEAT SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON
COUNTY (FLAGLER AREA) FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS A FEW OF THE MODELS PUSH SOME CONVECTION OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE TOWARD THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION AROUND 06Z FOR A FEW HOURS. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE FAIRLY LOW CIN ON NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FROM MCCOOK TO SAINT FRANCIS TO KIT
CARSON. GFS PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THAT AREA BUT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 17-18C CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

MONDAY...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE NORTHWEST BY DAYS END AS THE
PLUME SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. SFC TROUGH AND INSTABILITY AXIS JUXTAPOSED
UNDERNEATH BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE PARAMETERS AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH FAVOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND THE CHANCE THAT
IT MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT OTHERWISE EXPECTED FULL MIXING.
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM/GFS/UKMET DO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO
BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE AHEAD OF IT. WILL GO FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...100-104
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

AS FAR AS CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY...STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 103-106 SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE
ORIENTED DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FA. FORCING IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL KEEP POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING WITH NIL POPS OVERNIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THE GFS HAS
IT WELL TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HAS IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA.
PLAN TO GO WITH THE NAM SOLUTION RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FA.  POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NIL WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER, WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE FRONT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL VERY WARM, WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS SINCE THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
FA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM AROUND 100 ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO.  CONDITIONS
WILL BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FLATTEN SOME BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW.  A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.  ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA WITH
DECREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN COOL TO 60 TO 65 SATURDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S COOLING TO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...HOWEVER BETTER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE TERMINALS (WHEN I INTRODUCED VCTS MENTION TO BOTH TAF SITES).
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KGLD AND WINDS ARE
RESPONDING WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. THIS WILL BE BRIEF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS
12KT OR LESS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ003-004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.