Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AND THE ADVISORY
WAS NO LONGER NEEDED.

WILL BE WORKING ON POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO TO PIN DOWN SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CALLED AROUND TO
OBSERVATION SITES AT WRAY COLORADO...NORTON...OBERLIN...ATWOOD AND
ST FRANCIS KANSAS AND DETERMINED DENSE FOG WAS PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO NEBRASKA. GRIDS AND PRODUCTS ARE UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS.

PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
THIS EVENING.  THERE IS GOOD FORCING, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
ENOUGH SHEAR FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  THIS REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE
FRONT.  CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THAT EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONS NEARBY
ARE REPORTING FOG.  THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET IN THE EAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
NEAR 100.  PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO NEAR 100
IN THE EAST.  ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GET HOTTER IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.  LOWER TO
MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.  COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA AND
AN SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES... HIGHS IN THE 80S... AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...
FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND... AS THE SYSTEMS... THAT PRODUCED THE
BRIEF COOL SPELL... CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS. ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH... DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE... WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH HIGHS
REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. MANY PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE SCATTERED STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...BECOME NUMEROUS...FORMING AN ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW DOMINANT COMPLEX. STORMS MOST LIKELY REACH KGLD AND
PREVAILED VCTS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIKELY IMPACT TIMING. STORMS
MAY MISS KMCK TO THE SOUTH. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH MAY PREVENT REALIZATION
OF LLWS CRITERIA. FINALLY...IF SKIES CLEAR...STRATUS/FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THINKING PRIME LOCATION FOR THIS THREAT IS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND DO NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE FOG/STRATUS AT TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH



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