Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251909
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A RATHER WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATES TWIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  SOUTH OF THE TROUGHS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WAS PUSHING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ONTO THE PLAINS.  OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FLOW AROUND THE TWIN TROUGHS.

TODAY THE STORMS WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A 500MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA.  THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA SO EXPECT THE STORM COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST
THERE...WITH STORMS FILLING IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.  DUE TO MEAN STORM MOTION
BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AM EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT
DEEPENS.  DURING THE EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PLUME OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH IT.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30+KTS INCREASES OVER THE AREA.  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SINCE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW IT CLOSED AT 500MB. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES IN
NORTHERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TIMING OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS. THROUGH THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH. AFTER STORMS END, STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO
BOTH SITES WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS



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