Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level low pressure center currently located over north
central Arizona is generating showers and thunderstorms in the four
corners area. This low and its associated moisture is forecast to
move northeast tonight into the Colorado front range. Not expecting
precipitation to reach the west and southwest portions of our area
til about midnight then a bit further northeast through sunrise
Wednesday morning. For the afternoon hours the low and its moisture
are expected to move slowly east continuing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms for much of the area.

North to northeast winds around 10 mph or so tonight will veer to
the northeast at 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts during the day

Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s for far eastern
Colorado with mid 50s to low 60s east of the border. High
temperatures Wednesday will be tricky given the expected cloud cover
and precipitation. Currently shooting for low to mid 70s in far
eastern Colorado with mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Rising temperatures are expected during the extended period as
unsettled weather continues, with thunderstorm chances almost every

On Friday, upper high pressure is located over the southeastern
CONUS while a trough persists over the northwestern portion of the
country. The trough advances from Montana and Wyoming towards the
northern Plains Friday night, bringing the region its best chance of
precipitation during the extended. West to southwest flow continues
into the weekend, filtering monsoonal moisture northward towards the
High Plains. Occasional disturbances pass through the flow near the
area, generating thunderstorm chances. Guidance indicates a
shortwave advancing over the High Plains Sunday night, which may
bring another decent shot at precipitation. Drier conditions are
anticipated on Monday as upper level ridging builds further north.

Temperatures gradually increase throughout the extended as a ridge
amplifies over the CONUS. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low
80s on Friday and rise into the upper 80s for Monday. Lows remain
generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For KGLD and KMCK vfr conditions expected through the period.
There is a chance of mvfr or ifr visibilities in
showers/thunderstorms. For KGLD and KMCK the best chance is in
the 14z-18z time period. Otherwise for KGLD expect winds at the
beginning of the period from the north and northwest near 11kts
through 13z before veering to the northeast and gusting 20-25kts
from 14z-18z. For KMCK winds begin the period from the southwest
under 10kts shifting to the northwest at similar speeds around
21z. From 00z-14z winds generally from the north with an
occasional gust over 15kts, after 15z winds from the northeast
gusting near 20kts.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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