000
FXUS63 KGLD 060517
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1017 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

THE ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO BECOME NEAR ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW.
THIS MORNING THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160KT UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE SHORT TERM COLD AND DRY.

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S FROM
SOLAR RADIATION...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD AND THE COLD AIR MASS
STICKING IN PLACE MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER
TEENS TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE FOR A FLURRY OR TWO. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LATEST
RAP...SO IT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE COLUMN
HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. STILL...IN AN AIRMASS THIS
COLD DEVELOPMENT OF FLURRIES DOES NOT TAKE MUCH...SO ADDED IN SOME
NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME OR COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS...BUT STILL LESS THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS. WHILE TONIGHT IS COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT WHERE WE BROKE ONE RECORD...THE RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW
APPEAR OUT OF REACH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MID-MORNING AT
LEAST...WITH A CHANCE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK/FOG COULD LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/SREF HINT TOWARDS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AS A SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ARCTIC ARI MASS STILL IN PLACE WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...INCREASING IN THE WEST TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE WIND
CHILLS VALUES AS LOW AS -20F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF AN
ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONGOING WIND CHILL CONCERNS IN THE
NEAR TERM.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. ECMWF STILL HAS THE MOST
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR OUR CWA...THOUGH GFS/NAM/GEM STILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. ECMWF SUPPORTS BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN KS...WHILE GFS/NAM ARE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN KS...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH ECMWF SOLUTIONS...AND QPF VALUES
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS MODEL AS WELL. EITHER WAY I WAS
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. USING A CONSERVATIVE MODEL BLEND AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
IN THE 15/20 TO 1 RANGE I ENDED UP WITH SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
ONE INCH IN THE WEST TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
VERY COLD AIR MASS WE SHOULD SEE A VERY DRY SNOW EVENT...THUS THE
HIGH RATIOS. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK THAT WE COULD
STILL END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...POSSIBLY
BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS LEANING TOWARDS SUB
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY OVER THE
PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
HIGHS BY WED WILL FINALLY MAKE IT TO AROUND FREEZING...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVING THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO MODIFY
TEMPS ON THU AND CURRENT MODELS WOULD ACTUALLY INDICATE HIGHS AROUND
50F. HAVE KEPT WARM UP A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE (HIGHS IN THE 40S)
CONSIDERING THE RUN-RUN SPREAD AND ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM COULD STILL
KEEP COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS AT KGLD FRIDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. PLAN TO KEEP JUST A SCATTERED LAYER TO
KEEP THE POSSIBLE TREND GOING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR KSZ013.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS