000
FXUS63 KGLD 031018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
318 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION PHASE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE/NEARLY
ZONAL FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND EXITING STORM SYSTEM. VERY
COLD AIR MASS HAS NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE SREF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE ECMWF...
GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...IN REGARDS TO CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ONLY A
FEW PLACES HAVE REACHED WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO COOL DOWN. SO PLAN ON KEEPING THE ADVISORY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND SPREAD SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOP DUE TO THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN SOME PLACES
WILL HAVE A COLD START. MORE MODELS SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MAKING IT INTO THE WEST. MORE OUTPUT IS SHOWING WARMER AIR MAKING
IT FURTHER AND FURTHER EAST BUT AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS. DID
RAISE MAXES SOME BUT TO THE FULL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OUTPUT IS
SHOWING. KEPT THE FAR SOUTH MUCH COLDER DUE TO SNOWCOVER. WILL END
UP BEING QUITE A GRADIENT.

FOR MINS TONIGHT...WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST. SO
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FIT THAT GRADIENT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING IN A SURFACE OR WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OCCUR PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING. MODELS ARE SLOWER AND WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. CAN SEE THAT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SO WARMED UP MAXES WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH AND COOLEST
IN THE NORTH WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN EARLIER.

MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE JET ACROSS THE AREA. IN
GENERAL THEY ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF INCOMING JET DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. FLOW IN GENERAL APPEARS CHAOTIC AND UNORGANIZED.
DESPITE SHOWING THIS THEY DO INDICATE A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY
MOVING IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES APPROACHING ZERO
ARE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ABOUND AND ALSO SOME CHANGE IN WHAT THEY
WERE SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE. ALSO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS
IN REGARDS TO THE THE MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILES. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE HUGE. THIS AND OTHER DIFFERENCES REALLY LOWERS THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WHAT PHASE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN. IN GENERAL THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF COLD AIR
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE AREA OF CHANCE POPS.
ALSO THERE LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN LIFT/PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION...IN WHATEVER PHASE IT WILL BE IN...
TO BE DONE BY 18Z. AS STATED ABOVE...THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT
OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BIG
COOL DOWN. DID KEEP THE COOL DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
PLACE BUT DID RAISE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE LOW WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST...PLACING LARGE SCALE LIFT EAST OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTH...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING THE PRECIP. TO AN END. THIS PATTERN LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AREA THAN WHEN MODELS HAD THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
USHERING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE SEASONAL AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO REMAIN SO TIL 14Z OR SO THEN
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS IN THE 17Z-20Z TIME FRAME THEN FALL BELOW
12 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...MAINLY BY AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10KTS BY SUNRISE THEN
GUST TO 25KTS BY 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z. AFTER 23Z WINDS
BELOW 10KTS AND EVEN BELOW 5KTS AFTER 05Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DDT