Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 102024
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA...WITH A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF YUMA
COUNTY. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEVELOPING CLOUDS WERE MOSTLY
HIGH BASED WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND MINUS 40 CELSIUS. THIS AREA OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH AS MODELS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.  THIS ZONAL
TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE MID
LEVELS...A SMALL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS BEGINS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR TROUGH SYSTEMS OR STRONG JET WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
FROM KDNR...KDDC AND KLBF INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOWER AND MID
LEVEL PROFILES WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTH WIND FIELD...WHICH COULD SPARK
CONVECTION AROUND SUNDOWN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH DRY PROFILES...850 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND INVERSION
ALOFT...ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAK AND NOT LAST LONG PAST EASTERN COLORADO. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 30S THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN/SNOW THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY
MELTING...SO ONLY EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY
SURFACES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY SO COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON AS
IT STARTS TO ACCUMULATE. NONE OF THESE IMPACTS APPEAR THEY WILL
WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE. STORMS COULD BECOME ELEVATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT MUCAPE VALUES
ONLY FORECAST AT AROUND 500 J/KG SUGGESTING ONLY SLIGHT RISK OF
SMALL HAIL IF THAT SCENARIO DEVELOPS. GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MK






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