Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230912
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
312 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWS GOOD LIFT.  A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. CAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THAT PART OF THE FA AND SHEAR IS
AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA BUT CAPE IS
LOWER.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SIMILAR TIMING OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE
is ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHEAR OF
45KTS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

For kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. Some
thunderstorms will be near the site for a couple of hours and have
only a vcts mention. Sustained winds near 20 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots will occur ahead and behind a cold front as it moves
through the area. The gusts will stop by 12z. Late tomorrow
afternoon and especially tomorrow evening there will be a chance
that thunderstorms will affect the site so included a vcts mention
at this time.

For kmck...Currently a cold front along with showers/thunderstorms
are through this area. Mvfr conditions are expected for a couple
of hours before vfr conditions move in. Gusty winds northwest
winds will end by 10z. Just like kgld thunderstorms should affect
the site late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening so have
inserted a vcts mention at this time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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