Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper ridge will rebuild across the region today resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures should be able to warm to near normal if
clouds can break, which latest SREF shows happening, so bumped up
highs a tad. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moves over the ridge
bringing scattered light rain showers. Measurable precipitation
amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. The
ridge axis shifts slightly east on Wednesday resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures will depend on cloud cover. SREF
probabilities suggest Kansas and Nebraska will be stuck in clouds
through most of the day which will inhibit warming, but northeast
Colorado could see afternoon sun. As a result, might see a large
west to east temperature gradient across the area Wednesday
afternoon. Four Corners system gets organized Wednesday night,
with a lead shortwave trough moving in late. Enough mucape to
mention isolated thunder, but best chances will wait until
Thursday afternoon. Still considerable differences on where
exactly the dry line will set up for possible initiation. Deep
layer shear quite good, but limiting factor for severe threat will
be instability, which will be moderate at best. Rain chances will
only increase Thursday night as the system cuts off as an upper
low near or just south of the area, with northeast Colorado in the
favorable location.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The upper closed low pushes east passed the region on Friday and
rain chances decrease throughout the day as the system moves further
away. Winds shift to the north and strengthen in the afternoon,
gusting up to 40 mph in some locations. Highs are currently forecast
in the 50s to low 60s, but will not be surprised if temperatures
stay cooler due to cloud cover. With temperatures dropping into the
30s Friday night, some snow cannot be ruled out.

Upper ridging moves over the High Plains on Saturday behind the
exiting low, keeping the forecast dry into Sunday. However, another
wave moves onto the west coast, and precipitation chances return
late Sunday into Monday as this system travels across the Plains.
Temperatures warm through the weekend, reaching the 60s region wide
by Sunday. Lows will predominantly be in the 30s throughout the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

For KGLD...satellite imagery showing low clouds rapidly
developing in northeast Colorado early this morning. Latest hi res
model guidance suggests that trend will continue and the low
clouds will expand into northwest Kansas with MVFR cigs reaching
KGLD by around mid morning. Given the low level upslope flow,
clouds may be slow to erode and MVFR cigs may continue at KGLD
well into the afternoon. Tonight, scattered light rain showers
will develop during the evening and continue into the overnight.
Might see some lower cigs developing towards dawn.

For KMCK...expecting primarily VFR, though there is a chance that
the low clouds may reach the KMCK area by late morning or early
afternoon. However, confidence is low and model guidance does not
show the lower cigs reaching KMCK, so will keep it VFR. Tonight,
scattered light rain showers will develop around midnight and
continue through the overnight.




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