Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 152005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Have just updated to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the northwest
portion of the area. Much of this area had a lot of rainfall last
night. That combined with precipitable water values up to 1.5 over
this area will bring an increased threat of flash flooding through
the night.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

A series of short wave troughs that have been moving through the
base of the main upper trough over the intermountain region begin
lifting out east of the Rockies today and across the Central High
Plains over the Plains states from tonight through Wednesday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop an move
across the forecast area this afternoon and tonight as the
deepening surface low stretching from southeast Wyoming to
eastern New Mexico today moves east across the High Plains tonight
and drags a cold front along with it. Severe storms are expected
with hail and wind as the main threats with isolated tornados
possible near boundaries.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area
through the day on Wednesday as the short wave troughs aloft
continue to lift across the region with some stabilization of the
atmosphere Wednesday night in the wake of the exiting upper short
wave trough.

The remainder of the upper trough over the western U.S. begins to
lift out east of the Rockies on Thursday, and appears to come
into phase with a short wave trough extending southward from a low
center over south central Canada through the northern plains into
the central high plains on Thursday night. Moist return flow along
with some instability with warmer temperatures will produce
isolated to scattered thunderstorms that will move across the area
late Thursday into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Over the extended period there will be a change in the upper level
pattern that will keep temperatures warmer and drier than the last
few weeks over the Tri-State region. To start off on Wednesday
night, precipitation chances are low as a shortwave trough moves east
of the region. As for Thursday, this is the best day during the
period that could see precipitation and storms. There is a broad
trough over the region and then a small shortwave passes over. This
will create uplift for storms to develop.

The remainder of the period will see ridging with southwest flow.
Mostly every day are showing signatures for precipitation with
moisture from the desert southwest being pulling into the region.

Temperatures are expected to remain the 80s for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Main issue to address is when and where thunderstorms will be
later today into tonight. For Kgld, southerly winds will continue
through the early evening with gusts to near 20 knots. Some
discrepancy as to timing. Majority of the output says the best
chance for storms to affect site this evening. So at this time
chose to just add vcts from 02z to 06z. Wind shift with the front
occurs around 06z with sustained winds near 12 knots. At this time
vfr conditions are expected until 12z when mvfr conditions are

For Kmck, looks to be a better/more certain chance that
thunderstorms will affect site late this afternoon into this
evening. Mvfr conditions could occur with storms. Beginning at 07z
vfr conditions are expected as the front moves through around 10


KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001-002-013.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090-091.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.



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