Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis showing
broad ridging across the souther plains and zonal flow across
the northern plains along the northern apex of the ridge. At the
surface lee trough is in place near the front range with southerly
gradient in place over our CWA.

Today-Monday night: A very deep dry air mass remains in place
precluding any precip chances. Above normal temperatures will
prevail through these periods along with dry conditions. A weak
front will move through the region tonight. Highs today with
good WAA will be in the low 80s across our CWA. A weak cold front
tonight will bring slightly "cooler" temps Sunday and Monday in
the 70s (still 10F above normal).

A shortwave trough along the western extent of the H5 ridge moves
toward the Central Rockies by Monday night and return flow from
the southeast will allow for an increase in BL moisture/surface
Tds. This could result in fog development, and NAM/SREF are
already showing this potential late Monday night/early Tuesday
morning. I held off on introducing this to the forecast for now as
increasing mixing due to BL winds could result in mainly stratus.
If fog signal remains in place we can add as we get closer/more

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The axis of a ridge will be in place just east of the CWA on
Tuesday with southwest flow at the surface and aloft. H5
shortwave will push into the area as we head into the afternoon
with dry air in place across the vast majority of the CWA with
slightly better moisture in the far eastern counties. There could
be a few thunderstorms in the easternmost counties with most of
the activity remaining well east of the region. Flow will shift
northwesterly as the shortwave passes to the east with more dry
air being advected into the area.

Northwest flow once more becomes southwesterly as we head into
Thursday with a ridge building into central and western Texas.
Several weak shortwaves will rapidly move across the CWA along the
northwest periphery of the ridge with no PoPs expected with the
passage of these disturbances. As we head into Friday and Saturday,
a deep trough and area of low pressure will move northeastward out
of the southwestern States. The GFS weakens this feature rapidly
as we head into Saturday; however, there is a bit of
disagreement with regards to the timing and strength of the low.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above average
with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...South 10-20kts thru 20z...then
West/Southwest 5-10kts thru 09z Sunday. 09z-15z Sunday...Northwest
around 10kts. 15z Sunday onward...North around 10kts. For
KMCK...Southeast 10-20kts thru 00z Sunday...then light/variable.
By 05z Sunday West/Northwest around 5 kts becoming North around
10kts by 11z Sunday.


Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A warm and dry air mass in place will result in RH values dropping
to near 15 percent or lower across the western half of our CWA this
afternoon. At the same time a LLJ maximum will translate from our
central CWA around midday eastward through the afternoon.
With increasing daytime mixing there will be a brief period of winds
around 25 mph from midday through the early afternoon that could
last 1-2hr.

Lower RH values will tend to correlate with areas where winds are
much lighter in the west, or will trend eastward as the winds are
trending below critical fire weather criteria in our central CWA.
At this point only 1 hr of possible critical fire weather
conditions may occur between highways 25 and 27 in the early
afternoon. Due to the lack of confidence in 3hr crossover of
RH/wind I will not be issuing RFW, but will keep near critical
fire weather mention in HWO.




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