Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
555 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This afternoon-Tonight: Stratus, patchy fog, and drizzle have
lingered in region of BL moisture pooling in southerly flow just
east of surface trough. HRRR shows this pocket of better moisture
slowly drifting north-northwest. This stratus should hamper severe
threat this afternoon further east, and if this lingers through the
evening as long as SREF probabilities may indicate it may. There has
been enough clearing in eastern Colorado to allow for better
instability to develop, though this is still just outside our CWA.

Short range guidance still favors enough clearing and instability to
support activity developing transitioning eastward into our CWA.
Good deep layer shear (possibly decent low layer shear where there
is clearing) may support more organized cells (primarily in CO).
Beside elevated convection further east, confidence is higher in
severe threat primarily in our far west late this afternoon/evening.
Better forcing is still expected o slide north of our CWA, though
with WAA ahead of surface low and LLJ we may see convection
maintained eastward and this is still favored by all guidance. I was
not confident enough to increase coverage beyond 30 percent despite
overlapping precip signals.

Saturday: There is a chance we may see stratus linger Saturday
morning behind the weak cold front (behind surface low), but this
should burn off as drier air is shown to finally overspread our CWA.
WAA during the day should also support warmer temperatures (assuming
clearing skies), and highs should approach 80F for most (low to mid
80s possible). At this point lack of forcing (generally subsident),
less instability, and lack of surface feature should support dry
conditions during the day Saturday once main precip chances end early
in the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Going into the extended period...the passage of a shortwave across
the region Tuesday will allow for nearly zonal flow to set up over a
good portion of the country...with H5 ridging over the southern
tier. Zonal flow lasts into the Thursday night timeframe w/ only a
quick moving shortwave passing just north of the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The track of this system will focus
any potential precip along the extreme northern border.

This shortwave will give way to a much stronger system that
initially comes out of the Pacific NW...then SE off the Rockies as a
closed low before shifting into Plains region across Kansas.
Following its ride off the Rockies the system does slow into the
Plains and will allow for potential area-wide precip lasting from
Thursday night into Saturday morning. System slowly clears region
thru the day way to H5/H7 ridging for the
remainder of the weekend into next Monday. There is a weak shortwave
that follows the ridging on next Monday...but latest model runs keep
the system dry as it shifts into the western/central Plains.

For QPF purposes...the late week system has potential to bring 0.60-
1.00" of rain to the area. Some thunder potential during this time
that could enhance local amts. The northern tier system could bring
a few hundredths of an inch of rain.

Extensive cloud cover will play key role in area temps in the
extended. For Wednesday ahead of main precip/cloud shield mainly 70s
for highs with a few 80s in the SE. 50s and 60s for Thursday into
Saturday. Coolest on Friday as exiting system brings in cooler air
on return flow. Upward trend going into the latter portion of the
weekend into next week with 60s giving way to low 70s. Overnight
lows will peak near 50F Tuesday night...dropping into the 30s at the
end of the week before rebounding into the 40s by end of weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 426 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2017

The moist southerly near surface flow is keeping the low clouds
in place across much of the central high plains region this
evening. Expect the surface trough moving across the region to
change the wind direction to a north or northwest direction after
14Z with winds turning southeast again by late in the day as the
surface lee trough retrogrades back to the front range.

KGLD will start out MVFR, but will become VFR after 02Z.
MCK should remain VFR through the TAF period.




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