Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132355
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.

LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY DURING THAT
TIME. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGIONS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

ONE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS LEAVING THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA...AFFECTING THE KMCK TAF SITE...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. AT KGLD...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN AFTER 06Z THE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY 15Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ALMOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

AT KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AT AROUND 03Z. BY 06Z
THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT JUST LIKE
KGLD...THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR KSZ001>004-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER






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