Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 220827
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Midday analysis of satellite and radar indicate only partial
clearing for the western half of the CWA with very light isolated showers
in the eastern portions of the area. High resolution data does not
develop much in the way of precipitation through the afternoon
hours with only isolated slgt chc to chc showers expected through
the afternoon and into the evening. Should start to see some
isolated activity in the east and southeastern portions of the CWA
with areas west and northwest remaining dry.
Temperatures have been steadily rising through the morning and we
remain on track to reach our afternoon high in the lower 90s. Lows
tonight should fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s but this
will be cloud cover dependent as the temperatures will be slower
to respond in areas with persistent cloud cover.
Another warmer than average day is in store tomorrow with high
pressure positioned just far enough west to continue the influence
on our temperatures. Subsidence on the western fringe of the ridge
combined with relatively dry air at the surface will keep
precipitation out of the forecast through Thursday afternoon.
Highs should once more reach the lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016
The long term period is looking to be dry for the entire period.
Yet, there are some major discrepancies between the GFS and EC. The
current model run for the GFS has an exiting deep trough impacting
the region through Tuesday night with a ridge building in behind it.
The EC is much different, with the bulk of that trough moving out of
the region Sunday and then developing a closed low off the trough
over the southwestern states. That closed low is embedded under a
ridge that is over the region. So as far as the models go, there is
little confidence in which one will hold true at this point. One
thing to mention is that Sunday and Monday nights could potentially
see temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s in some locations.
Will keep an eye on this due to the possibility for a frost
advisory. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s
and 70s through the entire period, which is about average or just
under for this time of year.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016
Main aviation concern will be the possibility of low clouds and
reduced visibility in fog overnight and into Thursday morning. A
cold front will sag southward tonight and both are expected to
develop in the post frontal low level upslope environment.
Conditions will gradually improve through Thursday morning.