Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 162338
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
538 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A Red Flag warning is still in effect into early this evening.

Dry conditions are solidly in place across the region this
afternoon with many locations near or below 10% RH. Breezy west
winds have been a little slow to migrate across the forecast area
this afternoon likely due to the mixing being limited by the
higher clouds that are more extensive than initially expected
today. Breezy conditions are still expected to continue to expand
across mainly the northern sections of the forecast area in the
clearing area in the wake of the higher clouds, but may be coming
up against the developing night time inversion as we approach
sunset. Have held on to the Red Flag warning through 01Z.

With cooler air moving in overnight, expect high temperatures only
reaching into the middle 60s on Friday. Dewpoints are also
expected to be a few degrees higher. These elements will result in
RH values in the 20s of percent. While still dry, it should be
enough to warrant not issuing any fire weather highlights. Winds
are also expected to be lower as high pressure moves in at the
surface.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The long term period will show two patterns. Warm, dry conditions
will start and then transition to normal temperatures with chances
for precipitation.

The first half of the period will show above normal temperatures
(potentially record breaking on Sunday). Friday night a high
amplitude ridge is moving east towards the region. Through the
weekend this ridge will be placed right over the CWA. Temperatures
will be in the 70s Saturday and then reach the 80s on Sunday. Near
critical fire danger is possible Saturday in eastern Colorado and
over a good portion of the region Sunday.

The remainder of the period will show a shift. Beginning Monday, a
cold front will move over the region and lower high temperatures into
the 50s and 60s. These temperatures will stay consistent for the
remainder of the period. Quick moving shortwaves will impact the
area Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave that will move past the region
late Monday will create chances for precipitation in the form of
light rain and snow in the northern half of the CWA.

Wednesday into Thursday will see a big change from the upper level
flow we have seen over this part of the county for awhile. There is
a strong upper level closed lower that will move over the four
corner states late Wednesday. As this moves east, it will bring a
good amount of much need moisture to the region. Current guidance
shows only ran chances, but wont rule out some thunder if enough
instabilty occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For
Kgld...northwest winds around 10 knots will shift to the north
around 8 knots after midnight. Some low level wind shear will
occur from 06z to 08z. The north winds will become northeast then
east during the day at 8 knots or less.

For Kmck...northwest winds near 10 knots with gusts to around 18
knots will end by 03z. From 03z to mid morning tomorrow northwest
winds of around 10 knots will shift to the north. Those north
winds will become light and variable in the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ001.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER



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