Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.

HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS  EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR FOUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.

MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST...AND BY MONDAY MORNING SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF KMCK TERMINAL
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DECIDED NOT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION IN TAF AS IT APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN MIXED LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LLJ. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO ADD
VCTS GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING FROM THE WEST TO
EAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DR



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