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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

REST OF TODAY...ALREADY OBSERVING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ON THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY DUE TO TEMPS REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 10C/KM. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 600MB WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
STRONGER STORMS WILL CARRY A WIND THREAT DUE TO THE DRY
LAYER...THOUGH DURATION OF STORMS WILL BE SHORT DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EXPECT COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT

TOMORROW...LIGHT TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH COOLER TEMPS. 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S VERSUS TODAYS UPPER
20S. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BRING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH STORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAY THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CAPE /UP TO
1000 J/KG/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -7...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
WILL ALLOW MOST TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LEAD ONE TO BEGIN
TALKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BRINGING SOME COOLER WEATHER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VIRGA AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN
VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WAS TOO LOW TO KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER SO I REPLACED WITH VCSH THROUGH 04Z WHEN ACTIVITY
SHOULD COME TO AN END. IN PROXIMITY TO VIRGA/SHOWERS WINDS HAVE
GUSTED AS HIGH AS 20-30KT AT KGLD TERMINAL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
VERY SPORATIC (NON PREVAILINIG) AND VERY HARD TO PREDICT...SO I
LEFT TEMPO GROUP IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KGLD FOR
GUSTS. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN IN THESE CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH
ACIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...THOUGH I COULDNT RULE A FEW GUSTS THERE AS
WELL.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND STALL...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS 12G20KT MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT KMCK. I INCLUDED GUST MENTION THIS
TAF UPDATE...HOWEVER IF GRADIENT IS FURTHER NORTH (BASED ON FRONT
POSITION) THESE WINDS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ028-029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR