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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140849
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLIFIED
TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY LEADING TO A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TODAY...THICK STRATUS CLOUDS THAT WERE AROUND THE TRI-STATE REGION
THIS MORNING HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD
FIRE IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ABOVE 25-100 J/KG OF CIN AND STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BELIEVE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDING AS WELL AS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRYNESS WOULD LEAD TO WIND BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH FAVORABLE 0-3KM DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD...BUT GIVEN HIGH
LCLS AROUND 1500M AT THEIR LOWEST BELIEVE THREAT IS LOW.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION VERY LONG INTO
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND AND WINDS WILL BACK FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW...A SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL UP NORTHEAST OF A LOW
THAT DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
FORCING FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN
ALONG-BOUNDARY FLOW IN ALL BUT THE LOWEST LEVELS BELIEVE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WIND WILL AGAIN
BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY.

THE MEAN POSITION OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...ALBEIT NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH SUBTLE FORCING FROM WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...LEE SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED AND DRYLINE SHARPENS. A STRONG CAPPING EML MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OR TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
THUS POPS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD
BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE CURRENT DAY SEVEN IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE FOR BLOWING DUST AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
LOWERING VISIBILITIES.

SCENARIO FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP
FROM KNRN THROUGH KCBK TO KGLD TO JUST SOUTH OF KITR AFTER 21Z.
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGLD FROM 22Z
THROUGH 06Z AND 23Z-06Z AT KMCK. INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 22Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ015-016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...99