Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the
Central Plains with a ridge moving onto the West Coast. Closer to
home a surface high was moving across the Tri-State Area.

Tonight winds will turn to the south behind the surface high and
gradually increase a few MPH overnight as a surface trough
approaches from the northwest. Dew points will be in the 20s to
mid 30s from west to east. Was concerned that temperatures would
fall to the upper 20s overnight for the west half of the Tri-State
Area. However winds will be close to 10 MPH and the air mass will
be a few degrees warmer than last night, so think these two
factors should mitigate the threat for a hard freeze. That being
said low lying locations from the Highway 25 corridor west will
likely have a hard freeze where cold pockets will develop.

Friday morning the surface trough will move through the Tri-State
Area. Behind the surface trough winds will turn to the northwest
and warm air advection will begin. Highs will be fifteen degrees
or so warmer than today as a result. By noon south winds east of
Highway 83 ahead of the surface trough will be breezy. These winds
will decline and turn to the northwest as the surface trough moves

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Dry weather continues into the beginning of the extended before
precipitation chances briefly return and temperatures gradually

An upper ridge dominates the large scale pattern, progressing east
towards the Plains over the weekend and building on Monday. As a
result, dry conditions prevail. On Tuesday, moisture improves as
west/southwesterly flow develops over the region ahead of a low
pressure system advancing onto the Pacific coast. A shortwave trough
moves across the area, generating precipitation chances Tuesday
night. Westerly flow aloft and dry weather return to the High Plains
on Wednesday as the disturbance passes to the east. There are still
discrepancies with midweek guidance, so will continue to monitor how
things play out as next week approaches.

High temperatures slightly decrease from the mid 70s to low 80s on
Sunday to the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Lows are mainly in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. The light winds will become
variable this afternoon as a surface high moves through. Behind
the surface high winds will turn to the south. Friday morning a
surface trough will move through, causing the winds to turn to the
northwest behind it.


KS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
     Friday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092.

NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
     Friday for NEZ079>081.



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