Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Plains.  Within
the zonal flow a short wave ridge was present over the Tri-State
Area.  Further west southwest flow was bringing water vapor over the
Great Basin.

Tonight light south winds will gradually turn to the west behind a
surface trough that will move through.  Lows will be warmer than
last night due to the higher dew points and westerly winds.

Wednesday a cold front will move into the Tri-State Area during the
day then stall near the I-70 corridor.  Current data has the front
very close to I-70.  However with the surface low south of the
front, am thinking the front will be further south than currently

Last couple runs of the GFS/NAM showed a subtle shift south.  The
ECMWF nudged the front further north from its last run, but still
had cooler temperatures than most other models.  Since the front
will likely be further south than currently forecast, have cooled
highs a few degrees.

Lift does increase of the Tri-State Area in the afternoon.  However
the environment is too dry to support more than some cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

The primary focus in the extended period will be the winter weather
system moving across the High Plains Thursday into Friday. There is
a broad trough that is approaching the CWA Wednesday night but will
not impact the region until Thursday. Before the trough moves over
the region, upper level southwest flow will be present across the
CWA. This will allow for fairly warm low temperatures (low to upper
30s) into the area.

Thursday will see a variation in temperatures, as well as wind
speeds and direction. Precipitation chances will also move into the
region. Current guidance is tracking the trough further north than
earlier runs in the week. This is looking to lower the chances for
measurable snowfall over the region and lighter overall
precipitation. Currently the precipitation looks to stay along and
north of Interstate 70 from Thursday into early Friday. A cold front
is also expected to move over the region Thursday. Timing is still a
little uncertain as the models vary slightly. Yet, the front will
likely to move over the region during the mid to late afternoon.
This will cause the winds to increase and shift to the north,
northwest. Gusty winds are expected and will cause any snowfall that
does fall to blow around. Rain is expected to begin and then will
transition to snow after the frontal passage. Any snow that does
accumulate is expected into the CWA`s far northern counties and less
than half an inch.

The remainder of the period is expected to see gradually increasing
temperatures starting Saturday. Friday will see the coldest high
temperatures of the period in the 30s in the wake of the cold
frontal passage. By Monday, high temperatures could reach the mid
60s in some locations (possibly higher depending on the strength of
the ridge). Tuesday will see the next possible chance for
precipitation. Models are showing another trough moving towards the
region, bringing with it chances for moisture. Still a little far
out for exact details but will continue to monitor as early next
week approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will be variable for
the first few hours of the TAF at KGLD. For both sites winds will
then turn from the west then eventually south this evening as a
surface trough moves through. Behind the trough winds will turn
back to the west.


CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252.



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