Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE 01Z-07Z TIME FRAME.

THE INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE AND
REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...KEEPING SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE
WITH THE THROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES
TO THE PATTERN... BUT DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS.
THEY SHOW A STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TRI STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER OUR
AREA AND WILL BE TAPPING INTO GOOD MOISTURE... RESULTING IN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON THURSDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RANGE AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH THE COOLEST
DAY LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK
AND GLD. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND EACH SITE BETWEEN 02Z-06Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW DUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 10Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN 07Z-
10Z AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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