Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 061840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Issued at 1139 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Short term temperature guidance struggling with current scenario.
Everything except lamp is behind current temperature trend. So
just completed another update to raise maxes again.

UPDATE Issued at 926 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Just completed an update to raise the maxes a little per latest
trends and high resolution output.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Today, expecting another blast of colder air with a shortwave
passage over the Tri-State Area. Winds are expected to come up
quickly this morning from the northwest at 25-35 mph with gusts
40-45 mph across the forecast area. Expecting a range of high
temperatures from west to east with maxes ranging in the upper 30s
in our western CWA to lower 40s in our eastern half, due to cloud

Wednesday night, we do have a slight chance of flurries for the
northeastern forecast area along the Kansas Nebraska line, and
Yuma County Colorado. At this time, not expecting measurable

After the shortwave passes, a subsidence pattern sets up over us
on Thursday and Friday. There is still enough indications that we
will mix down due to diurnal heating and lack of cloud cover, so
holding winds at 20-25 mph with higher gusts on Thursday, and a
bit higher on Friday at 25-30 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday`s highs will be sitting in the mid 30s, and we will see a
quick bounce back up on Friday to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Dry weather is forecast throughout the extended period with north to
northwest flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures appear to stay above
normal for this time of year.

At the start of the period, an upper trough dominates the eastern
half of the CONUS with high amplified ridging building into the
west. This ridge slowly spreads eastward over the weekend and raises
temperatures. Attention turns to fire weather concerns on Saturday
for locations along and west of the Colorado border. In this portion
of the region, relative humidity values are forecast in the 15 to 20
percent range with winds gusting up to 30 mph. Will continue to
monitor this in the coming days. Relative humidity values remain low
on Sunday, but the advancement of the upper trough allows the
pressure gradient to relax and winds are anticipated to be lighter.
A disturbance pushes across the High Plains on Monday, regressing
the ridge towards the west coast, and cooler air drops into the
region early next week.

Highs climb from the 50s on Saturday to the upper 50s/low 60s on
Sunday. Temperatures drop mainly into the low 50s for Monday and
Tuesday. Low temperatures remain in the 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1011 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. The main concern
is the strong gusty winds through this evening and again late
tomorrow morning. For Kgld, until sunset north winds near 28 knots
with gusts around 39 knots are expected. At sunset those winds
decrease to near 17 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. From 06z
to 16z no gusts are expected with northwest winds near 10 knots.
At 16z the winds increase to around 15 knots with gusts to near 23

For Kmck, through 04z northwest winds of 19 to 22 knots with gusts
into the 27 to 32 knot range are expected. At 04z the gusts stop
with north to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots expected through
the end of period.




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