Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
335 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Today-tonight...dryline is forecast to set up generally along a line
from near McCook to Colby and Tribune around noon then ever so
slightly further east by 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT). Along this feature
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Large hail,
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Activity should
come to an end by early to mid evening with dry weather through the
overnight hours. Regarding high temperatures, 850mb temperatures
rise 4F to 9F from yesterdays readings supporting 102 to 110
degrees. All other better performing guidance averages mid 90s to
102. Will aim for the middle ground of the two with mid 90s to
around 104. Low temperatures mild with low to upper 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...strong to severe thunderstorms possible in
the afternoon (mainly along and south of the interstate) as a cold
front moves in from the north. Thunderstorm chances continue through
the night as weather disturbances move across the area from the
northwest. Currently advertising high temperatures in the upper 80s
to mid 90s in far eastern Colorado with mid 90s to near 100 east of
the border. This matches well with partial 850mb mixing and with the
cold front moving through seems possible. Timing of the fronts
arrival will potentially impact temperatures as well. Full mixing at
850mb suggests readings several degrees higher. Low temperatures in
the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday-Friday night...may see some morning showers otherwise dry til
after midnight as another weather system moves across the area. High
temperatures much cooler compared to the past few with readings in
the mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

An amplified pattern begins to take shape on Saturday as a ridge
approaches the western coast of the US. Low pressure over the Hudson
Bay region will keep a broad trough in place across the northern and
eastern US as this ridge approaches. As this happens, northwest flow
aloft will usher in much cooler air across the Tri-State region for
the weekend with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the
pattern continues to amplify on Saturday night into Sunday, a
shortwave will push across the CWA and increase PoPs across the
region. The post frontal environment will not support widespread
thunderstorm development; however, a few isolated weak thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. This activity will end from northwest to
southeast through the afternoon. We begin to experience return flow
on Monday as winds shift around to the south and southeast,
increasing moisture levels as we head through the afternoon.

The ridge and trough will slide eastward on Monday, allowing
temperatures to rebound into the lower 80s on Monday then back into
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Tuesday. Instability will begin
to increase as we head into Tuesday; however, the ridge and
associated subsidence should be enough to keep thunderstorm chances
to a minimum. If thunderstorms are able to form, it is worth noting
that the environment will be favorable for isolated severe storms.

Pattern amplification will diminish as we head into Tuesday and
Wednesday as the low weakens and the ridge flattens a bit.
Temperatures will reflect the diminishing effects of the low with
afternoon highs once more climbing into the middle 90s on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A
dryline is forecast to set up just east of both terminals early
this afternoon. Convection is expected to develop on the dryline
and move east through early this evening. At present time it
appears that convection will remain far enough away from the
terminals to not include a mention. Winds will be all over the
compass as well. Winds will start from the southwest around 10kts
or less veering to the northwest at similar speeds by 18z then
north around 00z. For tonight winds become east by 03z then
southwest at the end of the period.




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