Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Four automated sites along the trough axis have reported 1/4 mile
visibility. Based on the latest near term guidance of 1/4 mile
visibility increasing in coverage east of the trough axis and due
to the potential for freezing fog, decided to issue a dense fog
advisory for the east half of the Tri-State Area. Models indicate
the fog will linger longer than normal Thursday morning. Have the
advisory going until 18z as a result. This may not be long enough
for locations along the Highway 83 corridor.

The west edge of the dense fog area, along the trough axis, will
see visibilities vary as the trough axis moves east to west
slightly. Included Wallace and Greeley counties to account for the
slight westward shift during the night in the dense fog.

Some locations will have freezing fog which will lead to a light
glaze of ice on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Across the region...many locales still seeing remnants of morning
mid/high cloud deck as a mix of sunny to partly sunny conditions
persists this afternoon. Temps have rebounded well from early
morning lows w/ a mix of 40s across the area with some localized
spots 50F or higher. The upper low associated with the cloud
cover continues a slow northeastward trek across the Plains
Region...with any precipitation focused east of the low away from
the CWA.

Going into tonight...upper low continues to trek eastward
slowly...with a lee-side trough coming off the Front Range in
tandem. Ample low level moisture focused in place between these
two systems will create foggy conditions this evening into mid
Thursday morning with the focus on locales east of highway 27.
Increased cloud cover in eastern zones due to proximity to upper
low will help in keeping temps up overnight. Overnight lows will
range from around 20F in far western zones w/ the rest of the CWA
tapering up thru the 20s as you push east. Some far east zones
under expected clouds could be around 30F.

For Thursday...as upper low continues its slow departure eastward
thru the day...models shift weak H5 ridge off the Front Range.
This combined with weak west/northwest flow and mostly
clear/sunny skies for most zones...will afford the CWA another
above normal day in terms high temps. Will be looking for a range
from the mid 40s to around 50F...warmest west. The portion of the
CWA remaining in the mid 40s will be most of the eastern third of
the CWA as cloud cover from exiting low will be slow to exit.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

A relatively active and progressive pattern emerges through the
extended period. H5 shortwave ridge will prevail on Sunday,
traversing the region from west to east through the day and into
early Monday. This weak ridge will push to the east later in the day
as a closed H5 low moves out of the northern Intermountain West,
across the central Rockies, and into the central High Plains as we
head into Tuesday. At this time, there is good spatial and temporal
agreement between the GFS and ECMWF with both solutions indicating a
nearly perfectly stacked low pushing across the northern portions of
the CWA by midday Tuesday. Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast
overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning with chc PoPs more
representative as the day progresses. Antecedent conditions will be
relatively warm and precipitation will likely begin as rain or a
rain/snow mix before changing over to all snow sometime Monday
night. Snow chances will prevail Tuesday morning with the rain/snow
line possibly retreating westward slightly through the day. This
will largely depend upon the amount of CAA experienced and there is
some disagreement between the high temperature solutions as wet
bulbing is likely not being considered by some of the medium range
guidance. This being considered, Tuesday`s high temperatures are
likely too warm and may need to be lowered. The low will move east
to northeast and out of the area early Wednesday with precipitation
chances decreasing from west to east. CAA continues through the day
on Wednesday and high temperatures will struggle to climb into the
middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1032 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Low clouds and fog will impact the region overnight and into
Thursday morning due to moisture advecting in from the south ahead
of a surface trough. KMCK will see the lowest visibility and
ceilings, with periods of VLIFR. Low clouds will be slow to erode
at KMCK and may persist into Thursday afternoon. The situation
will be better at KGLD, but still cannot rule out a brief period
of low clouds or visibility restrictions overnight, but clearing
out by mid morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     KSZ002>004-014>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024



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