Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 280749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT...BUT
THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THEN INDIANA IS GOING TO ENTER AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE OUR STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE.

THE MODELS AGREE THE AIR OVER THE CWA IS NOT CHANGING MUCH. BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY THAT INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...AND A CHANCE ANYTIME NEAR A DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY CONSIDERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

THE MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD GIVEN THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
PERSISTANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW STRONG POSITIVE ADVECTION OF WET BULB
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
INCOMING FRONT. CONSIDERING HOW SUCH PATTERNS FAVOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS IS MUCH MORE IN ACCORD WITH THE WET MET POPS THAN
THE DRIER MAV.  HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN RAPIDLY AFTER THE FRONT AND BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

THE MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK OK TONIGHT CONSIDERING WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING IN THIS AIR. FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. A MET MAV CONSENSUS
WILL BE USED TO TRY TO GET THE BEST FROM BOTH.

AFTER TOMORROW THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURES WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN GIVEN
THE BASIC THERMAL PATTERNS...AND WET GR

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO DRY AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. ALSO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. AFTER
THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW TWO WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...FIRST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THUS
INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON WHAT LEVEL OF
RESTRICTIONS TO EXPECT. WILL TAKE OUTLYING SITES DOWN TO IFR AND
LEAVE IND MVFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FLUCTUATE AS OFTEN OCCURS IN
SUCH SITUATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAY BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD



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