Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KIND 191515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1015 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

High pressure over Kentucky and Ohio will quickly depart to the
east today. Meanwhile...a strong upper level weather disturbance
over the southern plains will push toward the Ohio valley this
afternoon and tonight this along with an approaching warm front
will bring rain to central Indiana late this afternoon and

A few showers may linger on Friday morning as the front surges
farther north and warm and moist air arrives across Central
Indiana for Friday night through Saturday. This could result in
some scattered showers as the weekend starts...but wide spread
rain is not expected.

By Sunday...another strong Low pressure system will push toward
Indiana within the Warm and moist Southwest flow. This will bring
yet another rain event to Central Indiana as the weekend.

More active weather is in store next week with more above normal


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

The sun is actually making an appearance...rather rare of late...
over parts of the area this morning where either fog or mid level
clouds are not as prevalent. 15Z temps generally ranged from the
mid 30s to the lower 40s.

For those getting the chance to experience the sun this morning...
soak it up as its appearance will be brief with the approach of
the next storm system. Plume of tropical moisture lifting north
into the mid Mississippi Valley with an axis of rain surging up
into southern Illinois this morning. This plume will continue to
lift north-northeast through the course of the day...gradually
saturating the dry layer present through the lowest 10kft and
enabling rain to overspread the region from southwest to northeast
by late day. Backed off the onset of pops by a couple hours based
on current trends and presence of the dry layer but as isentropic
lift increases at the nose of a low level jet arcing into the
region by late afternoon...will see a steady increase in areal
coverage of rain showers.

Will also maintain the isolated thunder threat over the southern
half of the forecast area this afternoon as an axis of elevated
instability lifts into the region ahead of a negatively tilted
upper trough approaching from the west.

With the large suckerhole in the mid level clouds present over the
southeast half of the forecast area this morning...bumped up high
temps by a couple degrees. Another mild January day for central

Zone and grid updates out.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 220 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Much of the dynamics that will be in place late this afternoon
will still be ongoing this evening. Again the upper
wave...saturated column and strong isentropic lift will continue
past 00Z Fri. Thus will trend toward 100 pops again as rain will
be expected to be ongoing near and after 00z. Given the strong
warm air advection will trend lows closer to the warmer 3 hourly
values of the MAVMOS.

By 12Z friday...models suggest upper support and isentropic lift
will be exiting to the north...reaching NRN Indiana and Lower
Michigan. Time heights show strong mid level drying and
subsidence within the column as the wall of moisture associated
with the forcing departs. Still time heights and forecast
soundings keep lowest levels saturated beneath a trapping
inversion amid the warm air advection and southerly flow in place.
Thus will mean more clouds for Friday. Thus will trend pops
highest across the north to lowest across the south on Friday
morning as the forcing departs...overall trending toward a dry
but cloudy afternoon. Again will trend highs at or above a blend
given the expected warm air advection.

More of the Friday`s weather pattern looks to be in store for
Friday Night through Saturday night. GFS and NAM continue to
suggest strong SW flow in place aloft...allowing a warm and moist
flow of air into the Ohio valley. At this time models suggest
weaker short waves embedded within the SW flow aloft through
saturday night...however...confidence remains low in and given
wave due to the lack of organization and agreement. However
Forecast soundings do show good moisture available and even
reachable convective temperatures on Saturday. Thus will continue
to carry at least a low chc pops on Friday Night through Saturday
night...with best pops mostly likely on Saturday afternoon as
forecast soundings show convection possible amid strong warm air
advection and again on Saturday night when models hint at a
better organized wave pushing toward Indiana being ejected from
the upper low over Texas. Again with the strong warm air advection
pattern will trend temps at or warmer a model blend.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 235 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

A couple of upper level lows will impact the area during the long
term, bringing frequent chances for rain. Of course some differences
in timing of rain exist between the models, but the initialization`s
PoPs look like a good compromise.

Temperatures will remain above average, with Sunday`s readings being
well above normal.

There are signals that more seasonable temperatures will return
after the long term period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 191500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Patchy fog has developed at the terminals this morning with
visibilities slipping to 3-4SM. Added this as a tempo group but
should see visibilities return to VFR by 16Z.

Rest unchanged. 12Z discussion follows.

VFR conditions expected to give way to MVFR this afternoon, with IFR
or lower tonight.

Edge of IFR clouds has move just northeast of the TAF sites this
morning, and it should stay out of the area.

A few showers may move into the area this morning, but at the moment
coverage is expected to be too low to mention. More widespread rain
will move in during the afternoon from southwest to northeast, and
an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Ceilings will lower through the day and into the night, reaching IFR
or worse tonight. Visibility will also fall in the rain and some fog
tonight into IFR category.





AVIATION...50/RYAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.