Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 110434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND STALL OVER INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A
FEW CU FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOL
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH PLEASANT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

TIME HEIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A VERY DRY COLUMN IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THUS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE.

SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE. AGAIN URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS
SHOULD KEEP IND A BIT WARMER THAN SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DEPART
TO THE EAST. A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEW POINT TEMPS TO BEGIN TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MARKING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY.
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SEEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN RISE TOWARD 16C. BY 12Z SAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN...THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. GIVEN OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS NEAR THE MAVMOS VALUES WHICH APPEAR
ON TARGET.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA. ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DEEP SATURATION. 310K GFS ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOW BEST LIFT ARRIVING AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...CLOSER TOWARD
18Z SAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. WITH SOME DYNAMICS ARRIVING OVER TE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE HIGHEST
LOW CHC POPS IN THAT LOCATION...WITH LESSER TO NO POPS ACROSS THE
EAST. MANY FACTORS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY HAVE ALREADY
BEEN DISCUSSED. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOT ADDRESS STABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALSO APPEAR CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH
LIMITED CAP...BUT LOST OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS PWATS ARE OVER
1.80 INCHES. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE SET-UP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP WILL TREND FRIDAY
NIGHTS LOWS WARMER AND SATURDAYS HIGHS COOLER.

THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ALOFT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THESE WAVE PASS...EACH SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY AS PWATS REMAIN OVER 1.8
INCHES AND AGAIN WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE.
THUS WILL AGAIN TREND AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS POPS ALONG WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND SUNDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ALLBLEND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST
ITEMS.

THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. BOTH 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPERATURES
WILL BE -2 TO -3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL DURING PARTS OF
THE LONG TERM.

THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. THESE WILL BE MOVING
INTO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE.

HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING PRECLUDE GOING HIGHER THAN CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL. HOWEVER AFTER THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S. /SOME MODELS EVEN HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY/.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME MODELS ARE HINTING
AT INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. CANNOT RULE THIS
OUT...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW THAT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WIND
SHIFTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 3 TO 8 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG
CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.  UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT KIND AND KLAF TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL
INDIANA.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS ENTER KLAF AND
KIND AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY.  BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE IN LATER TAF PERIODS.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.