Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 300607
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A strong upper level Low Pressure system over kentucky is expected
to slowly drift north across Indiana today and Saturday. This will
be cloudy...cool...and showery weather to Central Indiana for the
first half of the weekend.

On Sunday...the low is expected to drift farther north to the
eastern Great Lakes...as High Pressure build across the
Mississippi River Valley...bringing near seasonal temperatures and
dry weather for much of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Surface analysis early this morning shows Low pressure over the
Carolinas...with north/northeast flow across Central Indiana.
Water vapor imagery shows a deep and large cut-off low in place
over Kentucky...influencing much of the weather across the eastern
third of the United States. Radar mosaics show scattered showers
arriving across Central Indiana from the east...flowing around the
upper low to the south.

GFS suggests the upper low will slowly begin to meander northward
across Indiana today and tonight. Forecast soundings show deep
saturation through the day...but limited instability. Time heights
also show excellent lower level saturation. Thus with ample
moisture and forcing expected given the upper pattern...will raise
pops today and keep showers in the grids. Cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder as well....but widespread storms are not expected.
Given the expected clouds and rain will trend highs closer to the
3 hourly guidance values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Wet weather looks to persist through at least Saturday as the
upper low slowly treks across Indiana. Forecast soundings and Time
height sections continue to indicate saturation within the column
through the period. Thus will continue the ongoing trend through
the period of raising pops...with low temps warmer than guidance
and highs cooler. Given limited heating during the overnight
hours...will try to keep isolated thunder mention to the daytime
hours.

Changes arrive by late on Sunday...as GFS and NAM suggest ridging
over the Mississippi River valley nudging the broad low to the
northeast. Dry air begins to enter the column as forecast
soundings begin to dry out on Sunday. Thus as the moisture and
forcing departs...will begin to trend toward a dry forecast for
Sunday and Sunday Night. Will work a blend on Highs for Sunday and
lows on Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Sunday night through Wednesday will be dry as the upper low
which will be over the eastern great lakes Sunday evening moves
on to the east and a ridge of high pressure builds in across
our region.  The dry weather may end by Thursday as an upper trough
moves into the northern and central Plains.  Some models indicate
a cold front may make it as far east as Illinois by the end of
day 7.   Will mention a slight chance of showers over western
sections late Wednesday night and low chances of showers and a
few thunderstorms all but far east Thursday.

Temperatures will become a little warmer by the middle of next
week as an upper ridge of high pressure builds into the Ohio
valley.  Stayed close to super blend temperatures in most cases.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Conditions will deteriorate overnight to MVFR and periods of IFR as
an upper low continues to spin over the region.

Cannot rule out isolated thunder mainly during the day Friday. Will
include prob30 mentions of this.

Winds will be less than 10kt through the period, initially with a
northerly component. Winds will become more easterly/southeasterly
through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD



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