Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OUT
IN THE VICINITY. THE FRONT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RESULT
WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GOING FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS REQUIRED. MOST POTENT CONVECTION RIGHT NOW
SOUTH OF DECATUR AND SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD
SEEKING THE GREATER INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FURTHER NE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH 15 POP AND ISOLATED WORDING OVERNIGHT.

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO...WILL DROP POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND MAINTAIN THIS MENTION OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
YET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO
A HOT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POPPING UP IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THUS WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE NORTH WITH CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE BEFORE
00Z THOUGH WITH THE CURRENT STORMS...SO WILL ONLY GO CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
THERE IS NO STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...SO KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY DURING ANY
PERIOD.

UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/S
MOVEMENTS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND LOWEST POPS OVERNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WANES.

MAV MOS STILL LOOKS TOO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FOCUS REGARDING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON POPS AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA IN THE
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT WARM AND
HUMID. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS WELL WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

CONCERNS FOR MVFR FOG WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY DUE AFTERNOON
RAINS TODAY...CURRENT COOL TEMPS IN 70S AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE SUNDOWN. WILL BE MONITORING TEMP
REBOUND NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY CONSIDER EARLIER FOG THAN WHAT WILL
BE FORECAST.

LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TIED TO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THIS AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DEVELOPED A MESOHIGH PRESSURE AREA WHICH IS
DRIVING WIND FIELDS AT THE MOMENT.  GIVEN THAT CURRENT WIND IS
ALREADY FROM NORTH OR NORTHEAST...WHEN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND WIND
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT FEEL LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY
IS LEFT TO PRODUCE ANY MORE TSHRA.

EXPECT THIS RAIN FREE TREND THROUGH DAYTIME THURSDAY AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF TAF SITES AND GREATEST INSTABILITY EVEN
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH. THUS NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF DAYTIME
HEATING STORMS THURSDAY LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGES BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/NIELD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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