Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 200118
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT
THE MID LEVELS BECOME CLOSE TO SATURATION...SO THE SHOWER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT IS STILL WARRANTED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO PUT A HALT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS OCCURRED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND SOUTH OF KBMG...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 19Z.

RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO
THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT INITIALLY AS GULF FEED IS CUTOFF...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUBTLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS WELL AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPS...TOOK A MOSBLEND ON LOWS TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE IN
PRIMARILY THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY
PRECIP ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. UPPER WAVE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SURFACE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF AND PINWHEEL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN.

STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF DIV Q DIVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COMING ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OP
GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THINKING ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES NMM AND ARW WHICH HINT AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND A WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT EXPECT
A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA RESIDING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACCRUAL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THEN WARM INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 621 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON
MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 12Z MONDAY AS AND 850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
VCSH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS WORK THROUGH.

AS THE LOWER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE 850MB RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

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