Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 291734
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
134 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP


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