011
FXUS63 KIND 100147
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
947 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog possible late tonight.

- Drier weather expected on Thursday.

- Generally very warm/humid through this weekend greatest rain/ with
best chance for storms late Saturday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Convection has been slow to diminish in northern and eastern zones,
so have kept isolated shower/thunderstorm wording for the next 2
hrs in these areas with precip chances dropped elsewhere. For the
rest of the night, as temperatures fall combined with light winds
and clear skies patchy fog is expected to develop after midnight.
Areas of fog are expected in valleys, especially in southern areas
of Central Indiana. The rest of the forecast temps, winds and sky
cover remain in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a weak, poorly defined
frontal boundary across Central Indiana. Radar shows an area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms over SE Indiana, associated with
the passing of an upper trough. Meanwhile convective temperatures
are being touched allowing a few isolated showers to develop in NW
Central Indiana. All of these echos were continuing a slow eastward
progression. Water Vapor showed a plume of moisture streaming across
the SE 1/2 of Indiana, and subsidence across the northwest parts of
Central Indiana, marking the relative position of the upper trough
progressing across the area. Winds remained light and variable
across the forecast area due to the weak and poorly defined pressure
gradient across the area. Dew point temperatures remained quite high
in the middle 60s to around 70.

Late this afternoon, diurnal heating may still allow a few isolated
pop-up showers or storms across Central Indiana in the wake of the
trough. HRRR continues to depict this, but most locations will
remain dry. Some low chance pops will be needed through the
afternoon.

Tonight...

The trough axis will continue to depart to the east, allowing
subsidence to build across Indiana. This will result in clearing
skies through the evening and into the overnight hours. Forecast
soundings overnight show a dry column and winds are expected to
become light to calm. This may result in some patchy/areas of fog
toward daybreak as dew point depressions will become small. Given
our current dew points, lows are expected to fall to the middle and
upper 60s.

Thursday -

Models suggest that upper ridging in place over the northern plains
and upper midwest will continue build slowly east, but this will
still result in lee side subsidence and NW flow across Indiana.
Meanwhile at the surface, weak but broad high pressure stretching
from the Great Lakes across Indiana to Arkansas will be in place.
Forecast soundings show a dry column through the day with very dry
mid and upper levels. However, some hint of lower level CU
development are suggested as convective temperatures are reached.
Thus after a foggy start, skies should become partly cloudy with
warm temperatures by afternoon. Look for highs in the middle to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Overall typical midsummer weather is expected through the long term
as generally warm and humid conditions with mostly scattered,
diurnally-driven convection expected for much of the period.

Aloft, troughing with embedded short waves will bring chances for
rain for the end of the week and into the weekend. Friday`s chances
are mainly for the afternoon while better forcing later in the day
Saturday bring best chances for precip in the long term. Above
normal PWATs are expected for late Saturday, so could see some
localized flooding potential within heavy showers or should storms
pass over the same area numerous times. Also can`t rule out a few
stronger storms producing higher wind gusts; otherwise,
widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

Global models have been slowing the exit of the rain as a boundary
looks to linger over the region, so could see storms continue
through the day Sunday. High pressure still looks to bring a brief
break in precipitation early next week before another upper wave
returns midweek, bringing additional storms and continued warmth.

Aside from the near normal mid 80s high temps early next week,
slightly above normal highs are expected, upper 80s to near 90,
while overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms ending this evening
- VFR conditions through early morning
- IFR/LIFR conditions in fog likely towards sunrise Thursday,
especially in low lying areas near KBMG, KLAF and KHUF

Discussion:

Residual instability and weak low level forcing in the form of
subtle surface wind shifts will keep the threat for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the next couple of hours
until 02Z. Shower coverage has already dropped sufficiently from
earlier that have removed VCSH from the TAFs. Clearing skies and
light and variable winds will lead to favorable conditions for the
development of areas of fog, especially in low lying areas and
outside of the majors cities (KLAF, KBMG, KHUF) towards sunrise.
Even KIND will likely see a period of IFR vis towards daybreak.
These visibility restrictions will quickly end by 14Z under strong
insolation. Light westerly winds and scattered cumulus clouds will
dominate the rest of the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Crosbie