Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 090450
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING. IN THE WAKE THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A
RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS STILL A
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OFF TO
THE WEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLES THAT SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO INCLUDE A POP ON FRIDAY...SO WILL
KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE PERIODS. MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND CLIMO HIGHS IN THE 80S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME MVFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER
08Z TO AROUND 13Z  DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. HOWEVER...WEST WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP IND
VFR.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU AFTER 15Z ALONG WITH  NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AGAIN AFTER
01Z WITH A LIGHT TO CALM WIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

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