Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. APPEARS THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
LATER TODAY AS REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM CURRENT PLAINS CONVECTION
DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S FORECAST DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ON...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. PROGGED INSTABILITY
THIS WEEKEND NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT PROBABLY ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDA THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US A  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
WILL MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTHEAST MONDAY.  OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE CANADIAN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER  AS IT ACCELERATES THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER NEXT WEEK.  WHILE
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FAVOR
THE EURO...GFS SCENARIO WHICH SHOULD KEEP EVERYTHING DRY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S  MONDAY AND 85 TO 90 REST OF THE
LONG TERM...WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TAFS. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT
LAF AND BMG.

SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH CI CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PREVENTING MAX COOLING AND FOG
FORMATION. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
FALLING TO LESS THAN 5F AFT HUF AND BMG. THUS HAVE JUST TRENDED
TOWARD TEMPO GROUPS AT THE BMG AND LAF FOR NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ALONG WITH SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
ADVECT EASTWARD. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z
SAT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP


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