National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 150223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND THEN ANOTHER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO ONLY KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL
TREND IS FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT LEFT LOW TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL SKY TRENDS ALONE.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS AND MIXING DIMINISHES.  MODELS INDICATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.
WILL MENTION A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND WILL CUT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER AND THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION COULD REACH
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND AS FAR NORTH AS INDY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NAM SEEMS OVER AGGRESSIVE ON ITS QPF AND HAS BEEN
DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER IN BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW.  WILL TREND CLOSER TO A EUROPEAN...GFS BLEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS CONTINUE TO FALL SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW MOST AREAS AND MIXED SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.
HPC INDICATES UP TO 4 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

WILL KEEP CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 06Z AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND MOST
AREAS.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ND WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

0250Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISC FOLLOWS.

VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH A GRADUAL VEERING
OF THE WINDS TO 280-300 DEGREES THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRY. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
SAT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT OUT OF THE NE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS