Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 181843
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
143 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

High pressure to the south and east will control Indiana weather
through Monday. After a weak cold front passes Tuesday, high
pressure should back in charge Wednesday. A large low pressure system
with several associated fronts will affect Hoosierland the last few
days of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

The main issue is rain chances.

Orginally we had a dry forecast for this period.  Mostly that still
looks good. However the CONSShort model keeps low POPs for the
extreme south for a few hours after 00Z. Based on latest satellite
observations and rapid refresh model runs that`s reasonable.


As the system associated with the rain slowly moves away, we should
see gradual clearing in the north, but a mostly cloudy night in the
south.

Consensus temperatures have worked well for lows recently and
will be used again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Tuesday)...

Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

The forecast problem is how warm we can get tomorrow.

The models agree we should have a lot of sunshine in a continued
southwest flow Sunday.  The consensus forecast has been too cool for
highs recently. Given the situation is basically unchanging, the
SuperBlend will be raised a category.

The models remain consistent with Sunday night mostly clear, clouds
arriving Monday ahead of the next system, then progressively higher
rain chances starting Monday night. Consensus temperatures have been
doing well at night. Clouds and precipitation starting Monday may
end the recent tendency for temperatures to exceed guidance.

All things considered, the forecast for Monday to Tuesday will
mostly reflect SuperBlend.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday Through Friday/
Issued at 308 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

A cold front will bring rain chances to the area on Tuesday. After a
break Wednesday, more rain chances will return for the end of the
week as a stronger system moves in. Still some uncertainty on this
stronger system so timing of rain could change, but for now highest
chances are on Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain well above average through the long term.
The cool down to more average temperatures looks to occur beyond the
long term (next weekend).

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 181800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1159 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

IFR is possible tonight.

A weak, dissipating, cold front will cause wind to become light
after sundown, promoting fog. Some places may stay VFR, but areas of
visibilities 1-3 miles are possible from midnight through much of
sunday morning. Local ceilings below 1 thousand feet could also
occur. Skies will be mostly clear and visibilities p6SM by
tomorrow afternoon.

The wind should be southwest around 10 knots this afternoon, then
variable less than 5 knots starting this evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK



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