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000
FXUS63 KIND 172028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK.

ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DUMPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND AS THE
PATTERN PROGRESSES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEEK. COOL DRY NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE CLIMB FROM LOW/MID
80S WEDNESDAY TOWARD 90 BY WEEKS END.

WEEK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BRINGS A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST. NAM MOS TOO DRY TONIGHT WHILE MAV MOS MORE ON TARGET
AND REALLY EXPECTING DIURNAL TREND EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND INFLUENCE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW
ON SURFACE HEATING IS HELPING TO SET UP BOUNDARIES FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BOOTHEEL MISSOURI AND BEYOND HAS PROVIDED BETTER
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WEAK STEERING WINDS RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS REMNANTS OF OKLAHOMA MCS AND SURFACE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
BOOTHEEL MOVE ENE...OUR HIGHEST THREATS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR ON TARGET AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN NAM MODEL. ALL
MODELS SHOW UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND INTO INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW A PRETTY
DECENT TROUGH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT QPF VARIES. DESPITE SURFACE
SHOWING MINIMAL CONVERGENCE DO EXPECT SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
ACTING WITH MODERATE WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TO AID IN SCATTERED
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL...WILL
KEEP THESE POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST AND HEATING DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIT EAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE A DRY SPELL THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE BLENDED
THOSE WITH COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED
THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CHANGED WINDS TO VARIABLE AT IND TO MATCH OBS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING MFVR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOG MIXING OUT AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD

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