Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1224 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...SO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY RAIN
AT THIS TIME.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND COLD ADVECTION. BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT.

DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS GOOD
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS
ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AND THUS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER HIGHS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND AROUND 70 FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GFS INDICATES SOME MOISTURE MAY PUSH NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF DAY 7 AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE RETREAT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS
YET.  EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 7.  IF
THE GFS IS RIGHT...LOW POPS MAY BEGIN AFTER DAY 7.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +13 TO +17 THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SATELLITE SHOWS WRAP AROUND CU/SC OVER NRN ILL/NRN INDIANA
STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CLOUDS
INVADE...SCT-BKN CU IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. INITIALLY SOME OF
THE CU COULD DEVELOP BELOW 3000 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RISE TO
VFR CIGS BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AMID STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP

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