Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260903
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
503 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS
TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DEPICTED IN
THE GUIDANCE TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES
MAY STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
MORE SUPPRESSED ON THURSDAY SO DOWNPLAYED POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT
DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...AND DRY BRIEFLY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES APPEARS REASONABLE DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...CENTRAL INDIANA WILL FALL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THIS SET UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PASSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE PER THE LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...A CUT-OFF LOW ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. LATEST SUPERBLEND
SEEMS A TAD LOW IN REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH WITH THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THOSE NUMBERS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE...
CEILINGS AT KIND HAVE FALLEN TO IFR CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE 21Z RUN OF SREF PROBABILITIES ARE NOT AS OMINOUS FOR CEILINGS AS
PREVIOUS RUN...HOWEVER THEY STILL INDICATE 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FEET FOR ALL SITES BUT KBMG STARTING BY 9Z AND
LASTING UNTIL AFTER 12Z. MET GUIDANCE HAS COME UP TO LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS AND THIS FITS WITH MAV NUMBERS...AND NEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LOOKING IMPROVED AS WELL. THUS WILL REMOVE IFR FROM EARLIER
FORECAST AND GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING MAINLY AROUND 9Z. WILL GO WITH 2500 FT AFTER 15Z BUT MAY
KEEP MVFR AROUND FOR THE DAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK UP AROUND 15Z OUT OF THE
SSW AROUND 20-28 KTS. SOME DECENT FORCING WILL BE MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PRETTY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING STILL LOW CONFIDENCE. THUS DECIDED TO GO
WITH VCTS FROM 19Z ON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF 0-2Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

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