Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 211422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

An upper trough will pass off to the east of the area later this
morning. Otherwise, high pressure will be in control through early
next week. Another frontal system may affect the area towards the
middle of next week.


.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon/...

Issued at 931 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Surface analysis late this morning shows Low Pressure over the
Appalachians. High pressure was found across the Central Plains
States. This was resulting in Cool North winds were in place
across Central Indiana. Much of the cloud associated with the low
has departed to the east. Some Lake clouds were streaming off the
relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan into Northwest Indiana.

Strong Cold air advection remains ongoing this morning and
Afternoon as models suggest the 850mb ridge axis remains west of
Indiana. 850MB temps look to fall t0 0C to 2C this afternoon.
Forecast Soundings show convective temps in the lower 50s...which
should be they are reached...abundant
stratocu is expected to develop...limiting sunshine and and
further heating this afternoon. Forecast soundings show this
trend...indicating a saturated level of clouds this afternoon and
evening around 2000Kft.

Thus attempted to tweak the grids including some sunshine this
morning and more cloud this afternoon. Unfortunately the formatter
balances this detail out to say just partly cloudy. Given the
expected cloud this afternoon...trended highs a bit
cooler...closer the the 3 hourly MAV values.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period as upper heights gradually
rise in response to upper trough lifting off to the northeast, and
surface high pressure moves into the area. Some cloud cover probable
tonight over the eastern zones associated with moisture off of Lake
Michigan, and some diurnal cloud on Saturday. Otherwise, layered
moisture progs from the models suggest little else in the way of
significant cloud cover during this period.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Saturday may a
little on the warm side, otherwise the guidance looks reasonable.
Could be some patchy frost over the rural areas of western Indiana
during the pre dawn hours of Saturday, away from the cloud cover
off of Lake Michigan.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Models are in general agreement and SuperBlend initialization was
used for most items.

High pressure over the upper midwest Monday will track east Indiana
Monday night and Tuesday bringing quiet and dry weather.  This will
be followed by an area of low pressure which will move across the
southern great lakes around Wednesday night.  Went with a chance of
showers most areas late Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Blended
models indicate some areas may see rain chances end by late

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal most of the
period.  Lowered super blend tempertures some areas Monday night
with high pressure across the area which will provide good
radiational cooling. significant changes made to
Super blend temperatures.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 211500Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Based on latest trends, let KIND remain without a ceiling until 18Z,
when lake effect band of clouds should move in for a while. Still
VFR though.

Previous discussion follows...

MVFR Ceilings some areas for the first hour or so...Otherwise VFR.

Low pressure over northern West Virginia and high pressure ridge
across the upper midwest to Missouri will move to the east.
A few light showers along with ceilings around 2 thousand feet
may linger for another hour or so.  By mid morning expect mainly
3 to 4 thousand foot ceilings with clouds scattering this afternoon
and becoming mostly clear tonight.

Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots today will become west to northwest
5 to 7 knots tonight.




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