Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231423
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Sunny skies with a lingering haze from earlier fog this morning
over central Indiana. 1330Z temperatures were already into the 70s
in many locations.

Current forecast is in excellent shape with just subtle
adjustments needed for the update. Unlike Friday...the ridge aloft
and the surface high pressure have both drifted west and
strengthened over the Ohio Valley. This will result in a stronger
capping inversion already noted on LAPS soundings...and advection
of drier air from the northeast. With the cap in place and no
feature aloft to help generate storms...expect a dry day with
limited cu as well. Bumped up high temperatures a degree or two
most locations as expect most areas will once again get into the
lower 90s. Dewpoints should be a few degrees cooler than the last
few days but it will still feel very warm with max heat indices
into the 90s. The search for Fall is real.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Model data suggest only a slight progression to the long wave
features expected during this period, with the local area remaining
under the influence of upper ridging. Operational and ensemble data
suggest little threat for precipitation, so will keep the forecast
dry through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods continues to look too cool. Will bump
up the guidance temperatures about 2-5 degrees each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Good confidence on at least mostly dry and warm weather through
Tuesday under the influence of a persistent ridge. After that, good
confidence a cold front and cyclonic flow will bring much cooler
weather to the area with the potential for a few showers at times.

Blend looks to handle temperatures reasonably, but confidence in
timing and coverage of pops is low. The blend just brings sporadic
low pops to small parts of central Indiana Wednesday and Friday.
With confidence low, will just accept the blend regarding pops.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

KIND TAF looks good. Wouldn`t rule out a few cumulus today though.

Previous discussion follows...

Patchy visibility restrictions in fog expected to dissipate by the
mid morning hours.

Otherwise, some diurnal cloud development based around 035
expected during the midday hours today. Light surface winds early
this morning will become 090-120 degrees at 5-8 kts by midday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS/50


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