Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170222
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR/DIURNAL LOOK ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR NO LATER THAN THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LOWER
CLOUDS COULD REFORM TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY CLEARING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE REMAINING ISSUE OF NOTE.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS IS A BIT TOO WARM...AND MOS BLEND
CLOSER TO REALITY WITH NUMBERS LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE AREA...NEARER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...SAVE FOR UPPER 40S
IN THE METRO DUE TO URBAN EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT AND GOOD SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES...FEEL THE MOS BLEND IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
WARMING DURING THE DAY AND HAVE TEMPERED THESE NUMBERS BACK A BIT
TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. MOS BLEND LOOKS BEST AT THE COOL END DURING
THE OVERNIGHTS GIVEN THE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE ON THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AN UPPER TROUGH EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
IS NOT ONLY QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED.
SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION AS IT SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION REASONABLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AS WE BEGIN THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD. MADE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR TO IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT AND THOSE THAT REMAIN OVER
THE TAF SITES LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...SO EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ALL SITES. IFR POSSIBLE AT
THE OUTLIER SITES...ESPECIALLY KBMG WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON THE
LONGEST. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13-14Z.

EXPECT A BROKEN CU FIELD TO FORM BY LATE MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MID
CLOUD AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...50

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