Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310158
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT THE HIGH
WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS HOUR...WITH A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE.

HOWEVER THE FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO KEPT
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF REMOVING POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.

CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS NEEDED. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS ALSO
OCCURRING SOUTH. THUS EXPANDED THE FOG MENTION TO ALL AREAS. AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES BUT MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFTER DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMES TO AN END WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH. WITH
THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING BROUGHT IN PATCHY FOG AFTER AROUND 6Z TO THE
NORTH OF THE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THIS AREA EXPANDS
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 9Z AS WELL. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT NEARBY THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND PROVIDING VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG THERE LATE DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND THIS
MATCHED THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND VORTICITY ABANDONED OVER INDIANA SPINS
OVER THE AREA. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS UNORGANIZED AND
FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VESTIGES OF THE FRONT
THAT WASHED OUT OVER THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DAILY. LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
MORE COVERAGE AND THUS JUST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ACTUALLY KEPT THINGS DRY WITH THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IT/S SUBSIDENCE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS BASED ON VERIFICATION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
NEAR CONSENSUS LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MVFR TO IFR
FIG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL RETURN AFT 15Z ON MONDAY.

VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWS DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. WITH
VERY LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED. ESPECIALLY AT
BMG...LAF AND HUF.

ON HEATING RESUMES ON MONDAY...MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR
TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP



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