Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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853
FXUS63 KIND 251844
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

High pressure spreads thoughout the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio
Valley. This high will gradually move eastward over the northeast
U.S. tomorrow bringing southeast to southerly flow and a gradual
return of moisture Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Looks
like the next chance for rain and thunderstorms will be late
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 933 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

High pressure over lower MI dominates the weather for today. This
high will keep skies mostly sunny with some clouds this afternoon,
much like yesterday. Easterly winds will also keep temperatures
comfortable around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today night through Thursday night)...

Issued at 153 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

With good model agreement about mostly clear skies through
Wednesday, the forecast problem is rain chances later in the period.

There is little doubt it will rain as a surface low crosses the
state. Timing is uncertain. Some models, such as the NAM, have
the event well underway by late Wednesday night. Other models,
like the GFS, delay the most significant weather until during the
day Thursday. For the present consensus POPs are the best way to
reduce uncertainty.

All the models have near record precipitable water at times. It`s
just a matter of exactly when. Heavy rain will be in the forecast
wherever POPs are 60 percent or higher.

Confidence in the temperature forecast is high into tomorrow night,
with potential errors 2 degrees or less. Confidence drops
considerably later since the precipitation forecast is uncertain.
Potential errors are 2-4 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Dry weather is likely for much of the extended period as the upper
level system that will bring the rain on Wednesday night and
Thursday exits region.  High pressure, along with northerly flow,
will bring seasonably cool and dry conditions for Central Indiana
through Monday.  Highs through the period are forecast to be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s and lows will range from the upper 50s Friday
night up to the mid 60s by Tuesday night as moisture slowly rebounds.

By Monday the chances for rain and thunderstorms increase as a series
of weak upper level disturbances move into the region.  Timing is
still quite uncertain with significant inconsistencies between models
and model runs, so will be keeping POPs broad-brushed at this time.
At this time, the best chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to be
Tuesday afternoon and evening.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 25/1800Z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1207 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours as high
pressure over lower MI dominates the weather conditions through
Wednesday morning. Light, mostly easterly, winds will be the rule
today with some periods of calm through tonight.

Winds should begin to swing to a more southerly component on
Wednesday ahead of the next weather system that will move into the
area Wednesday night into Thursday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DWM
NEAR TERM...DWM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....White/Tucek
AVIATION...DWM



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