Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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849
FXUS63 KIND 220431
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1230 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Chances for showers and storms will increase across the area through
the day and evening on Thursday as the remnants of Cindy provide a
stream of moisture rich air and some forcing to the area that will
then interact with a cold front trying to progress across central
Indiana. After rainfall and chances for storms lasting through
Friday, the cold frontal passage will usher in cooler, drier air to
last through the weekend and into the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

GOES-16 showing the first bands of cirrus from tropical storm
Cindy pushing northward across Central Indiana late this evening.
At the surface...high pressure was in place from Western New York
through the Ohio Valley. Radar shows diurnal thunderstorms has
finally dissipated as heating as come to an end for the day.

No additional showers or storms will be expected overnight with
the high pressure system in place and a lack of heating and
instability. Thus have trended toward just partly cloudy skies as
the high cirrus arrives from the south. 850mb surface shows
generally a southerly flow in place with ongoing warm air
advection Dew points across the are have also risen into the upper
60s to around 70. Thus have stuck with lows overnight at or
slightly warmer than the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 324 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Moisture will move north from the remnants of Cindy during the short
term and interact with a frontal boundary to bring rain and storm
chances to central Indiana. Models are in fairly good agreement that
any precip chances will stay south of the forecast area until late
morning and then increase throughout the afternoon from south to
north and moisture and forcing move up from the aforementioned
remnants. The highest probability for rain and storms as well as the
heaviest rainfall amounts will occur late Thursday night into Friday
morning. The axis of heaviest rainfall should remain south of the
forecast area. Expect to see a decent gradient in rainfall amounts
from northwest to southeast, with perhaps a quarter inch or so
northwest but up to a couple of inches across the southeastern
counties. Regardless, as long as the storm track for Cindy remnants
doesn`t suddenly take a northward jog, current forecast rainfall
amounts do not pose any sort of significant flooding hazard for
central Indiana.

Friday the cold front will move through the area, and Friday night
it should sweep rain and storm chances out of the area from the
northwest to southeast. By early Saturday morning central Indiana
should be dry with drier dewpoints and cooler air advecting in.

For temperatures, look for mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday with the
lower end of temperatures in the south due to cloud cover spreading
north. Friday only low 80s expected with ample cloud cover and
precipitation across the area. For Saturday will see cooler highs in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Beginning of the forecast period a broad mid/upper level trough
will be across the central and northeastern U.S north of the
middle MS/TN Valleys. The GFS swings an embedded and weakening
short wave trough from the Upper MS Valley into the lower Great
Lakes through late Sunday night, while the ECMWF is slower with
this feature taking it through the lower Great Lakes by Sunday
afternoon. The embedded short wave trough may set off some widely
scattered showers as it moves across the lower Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will be over the central Plains and extend
eastward through the Ohio Valley late Saturday through Tuesday
which will keep area dry with the exception of Sunday afternoon
with the weak mid/upper trough. Expect below normal (highs in the
mid 80s) temperatures through the much of the period with a
little warm up back into the low-mid 80s on Wednesday.

Confidence: Low Confidence with Sunday precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Area of lower cloud cover near 030 advecting north through the
Tennessee Valley tonight should begin across the terminals from
south to north by the mid to late morning hours of Thursday.
Potential for some shower activity in the vicinity of KBMG/KHUF
towards 221800Z as models suggest deeper moisture and lift may begin
moving into those areas at that time.

Surface winds 180-210 degrees at 5-8 kts overnight will increase
after sunrise Thursday, with potential for surface gusts around 20
kts by early afternoon Thursday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...JAS



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