Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1237 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to central Indiana Wednesday into early Thursday.
Another system could bring more rain Friday night. Otherwise dry and
seasonable conditions can be expected.


.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Surface analysis late this evening shows High pressure over the
Upper Midwest spilling southeast into the Ohio Valley. Light
North winds were in place across Central Indiana with dew points
in the upper 30s arriving.

Forecast soundings and time heights continue to indicate a dry
column with subsidence across the area Overnight. Ongoing Grids
appear in good shape. Given the clear skies...reduced sky coverage
to near 0%. Also given the expected dew points...ongoing lows in
the upper 30s appear very reasonable. Overall, ongoing grids in
good shape.


.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Warm advection aloft on Tuesday will provide some clouds at times,
so partly cloudy should handle it.

Models try and generate rain across the area Tuesday night with a
warm front in the vicinity. However, feel that while some lift may
occur, the atmosphere will still be pretty dry. Will cut back
SuperBlend`s PoPs.

Better chances for rain move in Wednesday afternoon and night as the
low pressure system moves through, as better moisture is drawn up
ahead of the system. The far east will see a lingering chance for
showers Thursday morning.

There will be enough instability for some a few thunderstorms with
the system Wednesday afternoon and night.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Transient upper flow persists through much of the extended with
several waves lifting up and over the ridge centered across the
Rockies. This will keep much of the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley within a northwest flow regime through the weekend with
heights rising early next week as the ridge shifts east.

Most of the waves aloft tracking across the northern part of the
country will be far enough north to only impact the forecast area
with periodic clouds. The only exception is with the strongest
system passing through during the period...set to track across the
Great Lakes Friday night with a trailing cold front sweeping
through the region. Bulk of the forcing aloft remains well north
of the area but presence of the front and a modest low level jet
should support at least the threat for a few showers accompanying
the front. Once the front passes...high pressure will reestablish
for the weekend into early next week. Highs will remain near
normal throughout the extended.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1237 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High clouds will increase throughout the TAF period, but nothing
that will affect flight operations.  VFR conditions are expected to
be the prevailing flight category throughout the TAF period as high
pressure remains over the region. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the east with sustained speeds of 4 to 8 kts.





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