Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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575
FXUS63 KIND 260129
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
929 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Summer has arrived and will be in full force across central
Indiana over the seven day forecast period. Highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s, and ever present shower and thunderstorm chances
characterize the entire forecast period as a warm and humid
airmass remains in place with multiple subtle, weak, and difficult
to time upper level disturbances providing the focus for the
thunderstorm threat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /overnight/...

Issued at 902 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over
the Carolinas and poorly organized low pressure over Kansas.
Convection north and south of Indiana continued to wane as forcing
was limited. Satellite continues to show main high cloud streaming
across the state amid broad warm air advection.

Despite convection development over Kansas...confidence in any
tsra development overnight is low. Rapid refresh fails to develop
any precip across the area overnight. With little in the way of
forcing mechanisms...will trend toward lowering pops during the
overnight hours. Given the warm air advection and little change
in air mass will trend lows at or above persistence. Ongoing
forecast does that pretty well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Multiple weak and poorly resolved waves will move through the area
over the next few days, and in the absence of more significant
synoptic support, expect that thunderstorm threat will be highly
diurnal in nature and will reflect this to the degree reasonable
in grids. Cannot justify more than chance pops in any one period
as a result of the significant uncertainty and low forecast
confidence.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout. Bumped up
maxes a bit per low level thicknesses and left mins alone. Little
change in airmass over the next few days will result in only minor
day to day variability in temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

ECMWF really has no significant changes to the ongoing pattern
during the extended period. Warm and moist southerly flow
continues to stream into the Ohio Valley. Strong ridging looks to
remain across the east coast...keeping any passing short waves
well to the north of Indiana. Given the warm and moist air mass in
place...diurnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as superblend
continues to carry pops each day. Again, no washout days are
expected...but daily showers and storms will be possible. Given
the expected warm and moist southerly flow...the trend of slightly
above normal temperatures given by superblend seems reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mainly VFR through the period. Convection from upper wave has
split around central Indiana and no longer think TSRA should be a
probable threat at the sites so dropping any VCTS. High dew points
suggest some fog potential but winds overnight will not drop off
completely so will keep MVFR for a few hours around daybreak
similar to previous issuance. Models are showing some potential
for low (MVFR) cloud development in the morning but not confident
of this given upstream obs so will just bring in a scattered lower
deck for now. Possible scattered thunderstorms around Thursday
afternoon given the amount of instability but this will be
fighting a cap and a bit of upper ridging so will also leave out
any mention at this point.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...CP



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