Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221408
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1008 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

After a dry start to the week, rain and storms will return to
central Indiana as a frontal system moves through mid week.
Temperatures will run near normal until then, but drop below
normal mid week before climbing back above normal for the holiday
weekend. Chances for showers and storms appear possible at times
for the holiday weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Pleasant morning ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under the
influence of high pressure. High level clouds filtering the sun
this morning with 14Z temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Very little to change for the mid morning update as the forecast
is in great shape. High pressure will drift across the region
today with scattered cirrus continuing to filter the sun. Westerly
flow will back to southerly by late day with 850mb temps
recovering as coldest air aloft shifts east. High temperatures in
the low 70s look on the mark.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High pressure will move off to the east of the area tonight, but
the next approaching low and forcing will remain to the west. By
Tuesday afternoon an upper wave starts to get closer and will
bring in chances for showers into the western counties in the
morning, and then add in a slight chance for storms in the
afternoon as well with a bit of instability making its way into
the area. Tuesday night instability will wane but forcing will
increase through the night and should see increasing chances for
rain as a result. The best forcing and available moisture will be
over the area through the day on Wednesday, and rain looks likely
throughout the day. Instability will increase such that by late
morning isolated storms will be possible embedded within the
showers, and scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon. With all the clouds and showers around, highs will stay
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Cool but with a decreasing chance of showers will occur Thursday as
the strong closed upper low over the eastern U.S. moves on to the
east.  An area of high pressure and a weak upper ridge will move
east across Indiana by Friday resulting in a short period of . dry
weather.  Then more active weather by the weekend as an area of low
pressure moves towards the southern Great lakes and an upper trough
over central Canada digs into the upper midwest and western great
lakes by Sunday.

Temperatures will warm up to slightly above seasonable normals by
Friday and remain warm through the weekend.  Will mention a chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend.
Some models indicate the best chance of showers and storms will
occur around Saturday.

Stayed close to Super Blend temperatures most periods.  Raised POPS
a little some areas Saturday night as new Euro and Canadian models
look quite wet then.  Otherwise...only minor changes made to POPS in
other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Minor adjustments to wind direction as backing to S/SW already
occurring. Otherwise no changes.

12Z discussion follows.

VFR through the period.

Thin high clouds will occur today as high pressure moves east
across the Ohio valley.  A low pressure system over the northern
plains will move into the upper midwest late tonight with increasing
mid clouds spreading into KLAF and KHUF overnight and possibly as
far east as KIND by Tuesday morning.

West winds around 5 knots will become southwest up to 10 knots
later today and south or southwest around 5 knots tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/Ryan



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