Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170723
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
323 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Quiet weather can be expected through the week and into the weekend
across central Indiana with high pressure slowly traversing the
area. A frontal system Will approach to end the weekend and begin
next week with chances for showers. Above normal temperatures can be
expected starting Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure building over the area will bring mostly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s with weak warm advection.
High confidence in all forecast aspects.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A quiet short term period is expected under the influence of an
upper ridge and building surface high pressure. Models are in good
agreement and thus high confidence in dry weather and temperatures
slowly increasing a bit each day. While lows tonight will still be
in the low 40s under clear skies, some warm advection
will cause temperatures to warm to above normal from Wednesday on.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issues for this period relate to timing of precipitation this
weekend. Blended solution compromise may be tad fast.

Friday...the period starts with warm ridge overhead that shifts
to the east coast Saturday. A large upper trough coming ashore
in the Pacific NW Friday will advance quickly across the Rockies
and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday. Models
continue to differ on timing of rain with this trough. This
weekend`s system appears similar to last weekends which was
best handled by GFS...so faster arrival of rains Sunday seems
reasonable.

Sundays rain producing trough continues to fill as it exits
Sunday night but it is followed by a further intensification
and deepening of the mid latitude trough over our region late
Monday into Tuesday. The upshot of this will be a brief dry
period Monday before a return to showery weather Tuesday.

Temperature blends appeared pretty good and were followed. This
period will be characterized by a shift from well above normal
temperatures Friday into Sunday back nearer to normal Monday and
below normal Tuesday with max temperatures Tuesday remaining in
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1152 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the duration of TAF
period with high pressure over the region. Winds will be light and
variable.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...TDUD


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