Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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186
FXUS63 KIND 242043
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
442 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Upper waves will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable
atmosphere to produce daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average
through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

One upper wave was slowly moving toward the southwest forecast area
this afternoon. This wave has been producing a few showers. More
widespread showers and storms were across Missouri with another
wave, but these are moving south of east toward better instability.

The atmosphere across the area remains relatively dry, and it will
take a while for it to moisten up.

Went slight chance PoPs this evening over southwest portions of the
area with the first wave moving into the area with weak forcing and
limited moisture.

Overnight increased PoPs into low end chance category most locations
as the next wave moves in. Forcing is not that great and
instability will be low.

Generally stayed close to MOS for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus remains on chances for rain through the period. Models are
similar with the big picture but, as has been the case, differ on
the details of upper waves and resultant rain chances. Confidence is
lower in these setups, so stayed close to a blend.

With the lower confidence in timing and location of upper waves,
went chance PoPs most area throughout the short term. Northern areas
might see better chances for rain Wednesday night as a warm front
passes to the northwest.

Warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the lower and
middle 80s for highs during the period. A model blend reflects this
well. (Of course, temperatures may be affected by any advection that
does occur.)  Friday may be even warmer if the NAM pans out as it is
forecasting highs near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Warm and Humid pattern looks to remain in place during this period
as ECMWF suggests strong ridging remains in place across the East
Coast. This allows a warm and humid southerly flow to persist
through the period. Minimal support for precipitation will pass
across Indiana during the period as weak short waves aloft appear
to be unorganized and along with surface features which really
remain under the influence of High pressure. Although given
diurnal heating and the moist air mass in place...afternoon and
evening showers and storms cannot be ruled out.

Best chance for showers and storms looks to be on Saturday...as a
weak trough pushes through the upper flow in the upper midwest.
Indiana is not in the best position to benefit from the forcing
for precip...however ECMWF suggests a weakly negatively tilted
upper trough passing on Saturday. Thus expect highest pops through
the period on that day.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 242100z TAFS/...

Issued at 443 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Tweaked current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions will continue.

Strong ridging will remain in place east of Indiana...allowing a
warm southerly flow of air into the Ohio valley. Weak short wave
over the central Plains will slowly pushing toward Indiana
tonight...however lower level features and forcing remain
weak...thus have trended toward VFR CIGS as time heights continue
to suggest some lower level saturation through the night.

Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates on Wednesday with CAPE
in excess of 2000. Convective temperatures will be reached.
However models suggest well-organized forcing mechanisms fail to
exist. Thus for now...will trend toward vcsh/vcts during the
daytime heating hours to account for pop up diurnal
showers/storms.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP



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