Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH MID MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN
INCREASING AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. VISIBILITIES
HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND HRR AND SREF MODELS
INDICATE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE. WILL INCLUDE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION IN THE FOG ADVISORY. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL LEAVE OUT MARION COUNTY AS CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG
THREAT THERE.  WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MOST OUTLIER
SITES...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALLOW FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. THE FOG IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY AND THUS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES AT THE
SITES BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE KEPT KIND AT
MVFR. WENT MVFR TO IFR AT KLAF SINCE THEY SAW MORE SUNSHINE EARLIER.
AT KHUF/KBMG WENT LIFR. AT KHUF AND KBMG INCLUDED LOWER TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE VARIABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13-14Z.

EXPECT A BROKEN VFR DECK TO FORM BY LATE MORNING AN UPPER WAVE
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY 00Z ALONG WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ036-037-
039-043>046-051>056-060>064-067>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...50/CP

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