Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 141848
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING THEM BACK UP AGAIN LATE AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WAS ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND
ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS AT 12Z
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE
DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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