Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY TONIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES OVER THOSE COUNTIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE PATTERN WILL BE THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY...AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WERE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FARTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BENIGN PATTERN...SO WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GFS SHOWS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING DYNAMICS AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SUPERBLEND THEN
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN LATE NEXT WORKWEEK REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS APPEARS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT IND AND BMG. AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS LOWER LEVELS REMAINING MOIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES...HAVE UPDATED TO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. LAF WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.

EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF CONDITIONS TO LAST EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR AT BMG BUT WILL ONLY HINT FOR NOW WITH A SCT008 DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES
IN THE FORM OF FOG.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP

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