Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291102
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
IT IS GOING TO DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTROL THE WEATHER AGAIN INTO MONDAY. A THIRD COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY CROSS OUR STATE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS POPS.

THE FIRST WAVE OF THE SYSTEM THE SATELLITE SHOWS TO OUR NORTHWEST
TURNED SHARPLY SOUTH AND MISSED OUR CWA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER COLD
TOPS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. THIS TIME A SOUTH TURN WOULD
AFFECT US. THE TOPS ARE COLD ENOUGH SO EVEN IF WEAKENING OCCURS
SOMETHING SHOULD BE GOING WHEN THE SYSTEM ARRIVES.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. CONSIDERING THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...HEAVY RAIN IS WORTH MENTIONING.

THE MODELS ALL AGREE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EVENING AS A
WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA IS FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR.

YESTERDAY THE GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES. CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. THAT MIGHT KILL THE BIAS AND LET THE MAV WORK WELL.
THE MAV WILL BE USED FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION MAY BE
NEEDED AS EVENTS UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE. THE MODELS AGREE THE AIR WILL BE
SO DRY SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT TIMES THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER NO MATTER WHICH DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST YOU PREFER...THE MOS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL. THIS BOOSTS
CONFIDENCE IT CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE ALTERATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH.
THE NAM DOES NOT. WITH THE OTHER TWO MODELS AGREEING THE NAM WILL
BE DISREGARDED AND THE GFS GUIDANCE USED.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS KEEP US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 00Z EURO AND GFS NOW INDICATE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR
WAY.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING DRY...WHILE THE EURO IS
QUITE WEST ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.   WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND MENTION
LOW CHANCES NORTH AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 298 2015

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITONS OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IN
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR REST OF THE
TIME.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS BY 15Z AND
THERE MAY BE A LUL AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THURSDAY.  EXPECT VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THIS EVENING ON.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH



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