Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190731
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry weather can be expected through the work week as high pressure
dominates the weather for much of the period. A low pressure system
will bring rain chances to parts of the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Early this morning, stratocumulus were across central Indiana. The
clouds, albeit with a few large breaks, extended back into
Wisconsin. These clouds will be the forecast issue today. As usual,
many models are clearing out skies quickly, which is typical.

However, the Hi Res Rapid Refresh and the short range ensembles show
the clouds sticking around into at least early afternoon. Will trend
toward these models and go mostly cloudy through the morning for
most areas, then decreasing clouds during the afternoon.

There will still be some wind gusts across the area today with the
still relatively tight pressure gradient, but these should remain
around 20kt.

With the clouds and cold advection, temperatures will remain well
below average and only in the 30s. The model blend reflects this
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday night/
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The short term will remain quiet. High pressure will remain in
control through Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday,
but moisture is lacking. Thus do not expect any precipitation with
it.

Tuesday will be breezy with wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the area
as the cold front passes.

The model blend looks good for temperatures given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Ensembles and deterministic models in very good agreement that high
pressure will and northwest flow aloft will provide dry and cold
weather through Thursday. Then, southerly flow and an approaching
cold front will result in moderating temperatures Friday and
Saturday with showery weather Saturday.

With such good model agreement will accept blend temperatures and
pops.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 190600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1147 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

MVFR conditions expected through the morning, with VFR returning
this afternoon.

Stratocumulus at around 3000ft may lower to closer to 2000ft by 12Z,
and there is an outside chance of ceilings below 2000ft at that
time. For now will keep ceilings between 2000 and 3000ft.

Clouds will lift to VFR then scattered out during the afternoon.

Gusty winds will continue for much of the period, but gusts will
diminish to closer to 20kt overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...50



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