Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 301033
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
533 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

A weather system is expected to pass south of the local area today.
Otherwise, high pressure will build into the area through the end of
the week. A low pressure system may affect the area by late in the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Shearing upper wave is expected to pass through the local area
this afternoon. Appears from satellite and radar data that most of
the deeper moisture will be tied up well to the south, so think
the threat for precipitation locally is diminishing. May leave some
chance PoPs over the southeast zones prior to daybreak, but
otherwise will go with a dry forecast today.

Will probably see an increase in mid level cloud later today with
the passage of the upper wave, as well as some lower level cold
advection clouds by mid to late afternoon.

Based off of low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS guidance highs for
today look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Dry weather expected during this period, as upper low over the Great
Lakes shears off to the east, allowing heights to gradually rise
locally with time. At the surface, model data suggest high pressure
will build into the area during the course of the short term.

Despite the dry forecast, model data suggest there may be quite a
bit of cold air stratocumulus around for the next couple of days as
850mb cold pocket lingers over the Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses and expected cloud cover suggests the
GFS MOS guidance highs for Thursday and Friday are probably too warm.
Will cut the guidance highs about 2-5 degrees both days. The GFS MOS
lows look OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Models are in better agreement with the 00Z ECMWF closer to the
GFS and its ensembles.  Saturday will be cool and dry as high
pressure moves east across our region.    Models move an upper
trough our way Sunday and another one our way Tuesday.

Model soundings from the GFS...GEMNH and ECMWF models favor rain
early next week.  But some areas could see a period of mixed
precipitation Sunday morning when it first starts. Will mention
a period of mixed rain and snow early Sunday north third to half
of our region and then all liquid after that.  Monday will be dry
and then a chance of rain again late Monday night and Tuesday as the
next system approaches.

Super blend temperatures are too cold for low temperatures Saturday
night with lows in the middle to upper 20s.  The GFS and ECMWF
surface temperatures are almost 10 degrees warmer for 12Z sunday.
Will raise low temperatures a little that period.  Otherwise...
stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures most other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 301200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 532 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thin band of cloud cover near 012 currently progressing east
through western Indiana associated with a wind shift line.
Extrapolation of this feature suggests some brief ceilings at
KIND, and possibly the KBMG, terminals through about
301200Z-301300Z.

Otherwise, some layered cloud cover above 050 expected at times
today. Leading edge of an extensive lower cloud deck off to the
northwest may result in ceilings 035-040 developing from the
northwest after about 302000Z.

Surface winds 280-310 degrees at 6-9 kts this morning will
gradually back around to 250-260 degrees this afternoon, with
occasional to frequent gusts around 20 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JAS



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