Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 290159
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
959 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

An extremely slow moving low pressure system will stay close to
Indiana until Sunday. A high pressure system should traverse our
state from east to west Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper low centered over the forecast area this evening while a
surface boundary had shifted well off to the east of the region.
Plenty of clouds over central Indiana with a few showers
diminishing over far northern counties. 0130Z temps were in the
50s.

The upper low will move very little overnight...drifting into far
southern Indiana by daybreak. Spoke of energy over Ohio will
rotate back around the top of the low and drop across western
Indiana. This will likely contribute to an uptick in scattered
showers after 06Z over the western half of the forecast area. Will
carry highest chance pops over western counties with lower pops
further east.

Some breaks in the clouds will persist over the next few hours
but a gradual increase and lowering of the stratus deck will occur
as the upper level vort pinwheels back across the western half of
the forecast area. Lows ranging from the upper 40s far east to the
mid 50s west look reasonable.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The models agree in maintaining low pressure over the area both at
the surface and aloft. Rain chances are the main forecast issue.

With the low pressure around, this will be a cloudy spell with the
rain chances being controlled by relatively subtle features
difficult to forecast. This means consensus POPs should be
superior overall.

The fields controlling temperatures are similar between the models.
Exact values will be sensitive to if and when rain falls. Breaks in
clouds, even if brief, would also have a significant impact on
temperatures. All this indicates consensus will be the best
forecast, with possible errors of 2-3 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low which will bring us cool and showery weather through
Saturday will move on to the east early next week. An upper ridge
will temporarily build across Indiana Monday and Tuesday before
another system starts to move our way later next week.

Will continue low chances of showers over northeast sections
Saturday night and Sunday.  But the rest of the long term
period will be mostly dry with high pressure in control.  An
approaching frontal system may bring a slight chance of showers
western sections late Wednesday and to all areas by Thursday.

Temperatures will become warmer by the middle of next week with
highs approaching 80 Tuesday and in the lower 80s some areas
Wednesday.   Lows ill be in the 50s most periods...and then
near 60 by the middle of next week.   Generally stayed close to
super blend temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 29/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR initially will give way to MVFR and periods of IFR conditions
overnight into Thursday.

Upper low will continue to spin over the region through the period
with potential for some showers and widespread cloud cover.

Winds throughout the period will be 10kt or less, generally with a
significant northerly component.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD


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