Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 172053
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT DREARY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS
TO BE A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK UPON WHICH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
GREATLY AS IS TYPICAL AT SUCH TIME SCALES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT. EROSION OF LOW CLOUD IS TAKING
PLACE BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY AND MAY
CLOUD BACK UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
IN GENERAL...BUT NAM 925 MB RH PROGS APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT DO MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT FOR A BIT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL GO NEAR RAW MODEL BLEND WHICH IS WARMER THAN MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SOLID AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST
BRIEF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WILL CARRY A
14 POP AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE SNOW...WITH A SHOT AT SOME MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IF ANY PRECIP REMAINS AT THAT TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED GENERALLY REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT WARMING
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED...BUT
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH DEVELOP VERY STRONG SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY MIDWEEK.  WITH SUCH SYSTEMS EVEN A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE GREAT. DEPENDING ON WHAT IS
CORRECT...INDIANA COULD HAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM OR A MUCH LESSER
EVENT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT PROBABLY WONT BE POSSIBLE TO MAKE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
THE BEST STRATEGY MAY BE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 172100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS GOING TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THURSDAY MORNING THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK DUE TO THE ACTION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MVFR DECK
TO SCATTER OUT AND BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO IMPACT OPERATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY WEAKENS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/CP

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