Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011526
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE SNOW UPSTREAM...AND SOME
HEAVIER BANDS ARE PUSHING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. PER HRRR...EXPECT
SNOW TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE AREAS WITH THE STEADIER SNOW
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STILL MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOME MIXING INTO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER ON THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
SO FAR HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH POCKET OF MODERATE SNOW STILL OBSERVED UPSTREAM.
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH SOME LIFT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES DURING THE DAY TODAY...HEAVIEST
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTHWEST.

RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MAINLY 3-5 INCHES OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTALS WILL
PROBABLY APPROACH 6-7 INCHES BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THESE
AREAS. HAVE UPGRADED THE CENTRAL ZONES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.
HEADLINES UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE.

SO FAR...HAVEN/T SEEN TOO MANY REPORTS OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SNOW...BUT MODEL DATA SUGGEST ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY STILL GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE MIXED
TYPES IN THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST BY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS WILL BE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO EXPECTING ORGANIZED LIFT AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT...TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THAT TIME. APPEARS 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
SLEET...FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE
NUMBERS A BIT IN THOSE PERIODS. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED ON THE STORM
SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REESTABLISHES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO COLD DRY WEATHER.

OVERALL SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO DISLODGE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ALOFT. REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ICING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED THE ECMWF FOR
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
CAPTURING TO SOME DEGREE THE INFLUENCE THE SNOWPACK AND FROZEN
GROUND IS LIKELY TO HAVE ON THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. WILL CARRY A
FREEZING RAIN MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING OVER ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND HAVE EVEN EXTENDED IT INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WARMING WILL BE SLOWEST. QUITE
PLAUSIBLE THAT SURFACE TEMPS NEED TO WARM TO 34 OR 35F BEFORE
FREEZING RAIN ENDS AT THE SURFACE CONSIDERING HOW COLD GROUND
TEMPS ARE.

AS WARMER SURFACE AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY...THE SECOND PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME IN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM AND DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS...STILL
APPEARS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST AN INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ON TOP OF A SNOWPACK AND WITH
THE GROUND FROZEN WILL CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
RUNOFF AND ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT LONGER.
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SHIFT TO MARCH...ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY COLD TEMPS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING ZERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LIFT AND LOWER CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW 1000FT AS WELL. AS
THE DEEPER FORCING WITH THE SNOW SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING.
HRRR INDICATING THAT THE STEADIER SNOW SHOULD BE LARGELY EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY 18-19Z...AND WILL CARRY JUST A VCSH MENTION FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH SLOW
BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT OT VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035-038-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

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