Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 131311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
911 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ON MONDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTS WILL COME WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL
ONLY REACH THE 70S...MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER
RATHER THAN MID JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IS STILL
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW
CWA...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING IT/S WAY SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP IN STRENGTH WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS BUMPED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
CENTRAL INDIANA SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...FOR BASICALLY AROUND I-70 AND
SOUTHWARD. SEVERE THREATS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR
HIGHS 80-86.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY PROGRESSIVELY
DURING THE DAY...IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS LOOKING MORE WET THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A RUDE AWAKENING BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AS DRY AND COLDER WEATHER ENGULFS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A CONTINUED SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

BY NEXT SATURDAY...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A
PRECIPITATION THREAT BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOT ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT FOR A
POP YET...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 13/14Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MADE SOME CHANGES TO REFLECT OBS TRENDS AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING BAND
OF SHOWERS WHICH NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE TERMINALS. LAF HAS GONE MVFR AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW/IF
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT MAKES
PROGRESS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
FEATURE WITH TIME LATER THIS MORNING...SO NOT SURE HOW FAR THIS BAND
WILL GET BEFORE DISSIPATING. DECENT 850MB FLOW OF 30-35 KTS INTO THE
BAND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IT GOING AWHILE LONGER. APPEARS FROM RADAR
AND SATELLITE LOOPS THAT KHUF/KIND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF A
DIRECT IMPACT FROM CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 131500Z. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT CONVECTION WILL REACH KBMG. MAY BE SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIER CELLS...BUT WITH THE GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND...ANY IFR SHOULD BE AN EXCEPTION RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON QUESTIONABLE AS
INSTABILITY MAY BE REDUCED DUE TO THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY. NOT
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR A DIRECT IMPACT FROM CONVECTION TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT AFTER ABOUT 131900Z IN THE KHUF/KIND/KBMG
AREAS. CB BASES 020-040.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 250-280 AT 8-12 KTS TODAY...BUT MAY BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD

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