Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE
HOT AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO CENTRAL INDIANA THEN...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACRS NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WHICH WAS SUPPRESSING HEATING A LITTLE. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE
ALOFT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE HIGH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WERE VERY HIGH...IN THE LOWER 70S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING REACHED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMID THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREA WHERE THE TROUGH WILL PASS LAST.

HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 00Z
SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING NEAR 700MB...PROVIDING A CAPPING
EFFECT. BY 06Z A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES AS DEW POINTS WITHIN
THE COLUMN DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY POP
BY 03Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HEATING AND ANY FORCING
SHOULD BE LOST BY THEN. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAVMOS AND METMOS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN IT/S CONTROL THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 50S.CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON THURSDAY
APPEAR UNREACHABLE...AND MAY BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ON FRIDAY. THUS AS
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAY...WILL MAINLY LOOK FOR JUST SOME PASSING CI FROM TIME
TO TIME. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL USE A BLEND ON MAVMOS AND METMOS
TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS HINTS AT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE. DIURNAL TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BAD...AND
AT THIS TIME FORCING ALOFT APPEARS MINIMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AND AT THE SURFACE GULF MOISTURE REMAINS CUT
OFF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THIS QUICK HITTING FRONT IS LOW. FOR NOW
WILL INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE BEST. WILL TREND TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF AMID THE NW FLOW AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS AMID A DRY COLUMN.
WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY THEN WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MEXMOS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS KEEP US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 00Z EURO AND GFS NOW INDICATE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR
WAY.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING DRY...WHILE THE EURO IS
QUITE WEST ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.   WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND MENTION
LOW CHANCES NORTH AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FORECAST WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE STORMS
DROPPING VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS FROM
NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE TROUGH ALREADY MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.
DEWPOINT FRONT BACK IN EASTERN ILLINOIS IS DEVELOPING CUMULUS BUT
CLOUDS HAVE YET TO REACH SHOWER/STORM STAGE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM GROWTH ON THE BOUNDAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH TAF SITES
19Z KLAF TO 23Z KBMG. AFTER THAT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
REMAIN SO REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TUCEK


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