Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 192014
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014
A ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE DEEP FREEZE TO NEAR AVERAGE READINGS ON
SUNDAY...ONLY TO FALL BACK INTO COLD CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NOT A LOT OF SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HI RES RAPID REFRESH INDICATES
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH IT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BACK
DOWN TO FLURRIES MOST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDS BACK UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-74. MODEL LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS ALSO SHOW HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THUS WILL GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-74. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MAV MOS VALUES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

ON THURSDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD AID
IN SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO
CUT IT AS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAV
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING WARM AIR NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH...WHILE THE MET LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THE SAME SCENARIO. WENT
IN BETWEEN.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS DECENT...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH. THUS ONLY WENT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

LOWER LEVELS WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THE MID LEVELS TO WARM
UP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT COLD SPELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT PRECIPITATION ALOFT SHOULD MELT...SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE. COULD BE SOME SLEET IF
NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH.

AT ANY RATE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK FORCING
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING RELATIVELY
QUICKLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENT SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEGATIVELY
TILTED PROVIDING FOR GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND
POTENTIAL DECENT QPF. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DECENT QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...WITH SUCH STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES...COLDER AIR WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN
IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. WILL HOLD ON TO POPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT PER CRITICAL MODEL THICKNESSES.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS DECENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN 60S SOUTH. THEN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S BY TUESDAY PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND
18Z...HUF AROUND 19Z AND IND AND BMG AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AFTER 23Z. ALSO...WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER
EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

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