Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND
DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MIDWEEK BUT WARMING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MORNING FROST THIS MORNING AS THE
STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF EROSION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...SUB-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF
A FORT WAYNE TO KANKAKEE LINE AT 230 AM EDT. THIS HAS LEND TO
LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL WOULD HAVE THE
CLEARING LINE THERE RIGHT AROUND 12Z...RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
STILL...WOULD HATE TO PULL THE ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE BREAKS AND OR
CLEARING RESULT IN A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SO...WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM AS IS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AFTER THE STRATOCU MOVES OFF. STILL...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z GFS NUMBERS
WITH SHALLOW INVERSION PREVENTING MUCH OF ANY MIXING DOWN. PREFER
TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR THAT
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING BETTER WITH THE STEADIER 12Z
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE GFS IS ALSO NOW NOT AS MOIST AND THUS
THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TAMED DOWN FROM EARLY LIKELY
CATEGORY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER...ALBEIT HO HUM MOISTURE
RIBBON EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUS...BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BROUGHT THEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT...CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY
12Z MONDAY. LEFT SOME LINGER LOW EVENING POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD DROP DOWN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND...MOS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK GOOD BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLEND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 00Z GFS AND COOLER 00Z NAM LOOK
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AT ALL SITES BUT KHUF. CLEARING
IS MAKING ITS WAY TO KLAF AND KBMG AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD REACH
BOTH SITES WITHIN THE HOUR BUT KIND SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH 10Z AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT LONGER THAN THAT BUT HAVE GONE WITH MORE
OPTIMISTIC TIMING. AFTER THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

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