Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221853
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Cool high pressure overhead will move to the east coast Thursday and
re-establish a southerly flow of milder air in our region. A
weather system impacting the west coast today will bring some rain
showers and perhaps a few storms Friday into early Sunday. An
exit of this system late Sunday will be followed by a brief dry
period before a couple of weather systems in the north Pacific
sweep into the Midwest with mild, showery weather, and perhaps a
few thunderstorms, for much of the next work week.

Severe weather does not appear likely for the next week but
more spring-like temperatures at or above normal will be welcome,
with highs Friday onward in the 60s...and a few 70s south...for
most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

High pressure will remain in control with northeast winds at or
below 10 knots under generally clear skies except for some patchy
thin cirrus at times. Winds remaining up should minimize frost for
the most part except in sheltered areas. Freezing temperatures are
expected everywhere with blended temperature guidance looking
reasonable. Will issue freeze warning for a few of the southern
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Southeast surface winds begin a return of slightly milder and
more humid air Thursday. Temps should top out a degree or so
cooler than previous forecast as winds remain more southeasterly
out of cool high. Mid cloud will increase Thursday afternoon as
warm advection ensues. A few sprinkles may occur Thursday
afternoon and evening as upper ridge arrives but lower levels
are so dry am not certain rain will be a player. Will keep for now.

Upper ridge passage in advance of todays west coast trough
deepening in the Plains Friday returns drier condition here
late Thursday night through Friday evening. As system continues
its approach, chance showers Friday night become likely for
Saturday. And with elevated instability Saturday...thunder appears
in play then.

Temperature guidance blend appears pretty good and will be
followed with last subfreezing night for awhile occurring tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Three areas of low pressure will affect our weather in the extended
period with the first one occurring over the weekend...the second
one Monday afternoon and evening and the third one occurring near or
after day 7 depending on the model.  Models are in pretty good
agreement on the first two and have stayed close to superblend POPS
with those systems.

Regarding the third area of low pressure...the GFS has trended a lot
slower as high pressure builds into the great lakes by Wednesday. It
has also trended quite a bit cooler.  The latest runs of the other
models have trended somewhat in that direction...but a less than the
GFS.  Went with a blend for now and will keep 20 percent POPS late
Tuesday night west and 20 percent POPS all areas Wednesday.

Lowered Superblend max temperatures some towards the middle of next
week...but not quite as much as the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 112 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR Conditions are expected through the TAF period for all
terminals. Winds of generally less than 10 knots will slowly veer
from the northeast to the southeast tonight as a high pressure
moves east across Michigan. Some mid-level clouds will move in
shortly before sunrise with a slight chance for showers later in
the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...White


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