Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201833
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DURING
THE NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

ORGANIZED LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIFT
DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT STRONG...BUT THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER
COMES CLOSE TO SATURATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS REMNANTS
OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LIFT AGAIN DOESN/T LOOK TOO STRONG...BUT PROBABLY ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIPITATION GENERATION. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT THAT TIME.

LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY THAT A LINGERING POP PROBABLY WON/T BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL GO DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION APPEARS
TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GUIDANCE WILL BE
NUDGED DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY. FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODELS INDICATE ONE
SYSTEM TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LINGER AS LONG AS FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL CARRY THEM NO FURTHER. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD A WARM FRONT IS DEPICTED APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT.

MODEL PROGS FOR BULK SHEAR...K INDEX AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP INDICATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH MODEL AND RUN TO RUN
DISCREPANCY TO SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

MAX TEMPS NEEDED BUMPED UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS MODEL 850 MB TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGESTED THEY WERE A BIT LOW. OTHERWISE
ALLBLEND WAS FINE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOVES TO THE EAST.

ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH
SOME MID CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.  ON MONDAY
THERE MAY BE SCATTERED CU BY LATE MORNING WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF KIND 30
HOUR TAF AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 7 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP TO 12
KNOTS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH

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