Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 160228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION BEFORE PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN SHUT OFF BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NY
ACROSS OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN IOWA.

THE WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEPART OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALLOWING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS. ALSO
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM...HAVE TRENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AND THUS
TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT...HOWEVER MOS APPEARS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE ON MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO NUMBERS UPSTREAM AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES. HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL
MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS AND WARMER MOS ON HIGHS. MOS APPEARS MUCH
BETTER ON LOWS ESPECIALLY GIVEN NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...AND WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HAVE LARGELY
GONE WITH MOS ON MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PER SIMILAR MODEL QPF TIMING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

IFR CEILINGS STARTING TO SHOW UP AROUND KIND...SO EXPECTING CEILINGS
TO FALL INTO THAT CATEGORY SOON. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER IN THE KIND VICINITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

WILL LOWER THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE UPDATE BASED ON REGIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH THE CONVECTION AFFECTING KHUF/KBMG. MOST THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO AN UPPER WAVE...WHICH SHOULD PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE COLD
FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 160400Z...SO THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME UNTIL THEN. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
IFR CEILINGS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE IFR
CEILINGS MAY HOLD MOST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY LIFTING INTO AN MVFR
DECK AT KLAF TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS STILL A LITTLE CHAOTIC DUE TO CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD
SETTLE TO 210-240 AT 6-8 KTS VEERING AROUND TO 330-350 WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

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