Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1141 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY.  AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY BEGINNING AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 957 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATE...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW FALL TOTALS AROUND THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1/2 INCH. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
WITH BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW TONIGHT...BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET FAR SOUTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE COLDER TREND OF THE
MODELS IT NOW APPEARS GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. ALSO WENT WITH MODEL TRENDS OF UPPING TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG THIS AREA TO 6 INCHES.

I DOUBT THAT WE WILL GET 6 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY AND OUR 24 HOUR
CRITERIA FOR HEAVY SNOW IS 8 INCHES...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

MODELS STILL INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS FAR SOUTH TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES.  THERE STILL MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING.  FOR THE INDY AND TERRE HAUTE AREA
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW AS WELL AS OUR NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING AND RISE SOME LATE
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA.  WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION CUT HIGHS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY FROM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.  MODELS STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN.  HOWEVER A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.

GIVEN THE STRONG UVV AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING BECAUSE OF SNOW
COVER. OTHERWISE...A WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL STILL BE A GOOD BEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THE COLD FRONT...SO POPS WILL
BE LOWER MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...WENT MAINLY SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO FASTER
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND/OR
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AT TIME FOR ALL AREAS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD...GO WITH A 1SM PREVAILING VIS AND TEMPO
DOWN TO 1/2SM SN FOR THE NEXT 4 HOURS...UNTIL 10Z. THEN MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW ON LATER TODAY SO KEPT IFR GOING
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

AS FOR LATER TODAY...RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG BUT STILL FEEL ODDS ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION -RASN IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY KEEP THIS IN MIND FOR FUTURE AVIATION FORECAST UPDATES.

SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AND MOST
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND THIS TIME 00-03Z
SUNDAY. VFR MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...OUTSIDE
OF THIS TAF TIME PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SMF

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