Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 180816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016


The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front will drop into the area today and stall in the Ohio
Valley through mid week, before moving eastward late in the week
as a large upper trough swings into the Great Lakes. Showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms will be possible at times through at
least Thursday night, with the highest chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Cold front will drop into the region this afternoon, which will
require at least a slight chance pop most areas by late afternoon.

Increasing cloud cover ahead of the front may keep temps a bit
cooler than Monday in spots but not by much. Another unseasonably
warm day expected.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The frontal boundary will stall near the Ohio Valley tonight. Pops
will as such be maximized along the southern portion of the area
nearest the boundary tonight into early Wednesday. As the upper
trough approaches will ramp up to likely pops most areas Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout with only
minor tweaks. Temps by the end of the short term will be much more
seasonable with highs in the 60s.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A more typical weather regime for late October setting up through
the extended with a warming trend for early next week as broad
ridging aloft once again makes a return to the Ohio Valley.

May see brief lingering rainfall in the far east Friday morning as
low pressure and the associated cold front depart off to the east of
the region. General trend however should be for decreasing clouds
and cool conditions with northwest winds in the cyclonic flow. The
upper trough over the region at the beginning of the period will
lift into New England then the Canadian Maritimes and deepen
substantially over the weekend. This will leave central Indiana on
the back side of this feature and maintain a cool cyclonic350 flow
over the region through the first half of the weekend before the
aforementioned ridging takes over. A trailing wave aloft on the back
side of the deepening upper low may generate a few very light
showers over northern counties on Saturday...otherwise dry
conditions are expected into early next week.

Highs will be in the 50s Friday and for most of the area Saturday
before warming once again into the 60s in response to the arrival
of the upper level ridge. Highs may flirt with 70 by Monday.
Overnight lows will be chilly in the 40s throughout the extended.
Saturday morning likely to be the coldest with potential for temps
bottoming out in the mid and upper 30s in some locations. While
skies will be mainly clear...winds are likely to remain up through
the night which would mitigate frost accrual if these lower temps
are realized. Something to monitor going forward as the entire
forecast area has now moved beyond the average first frost of the
fall on the calendar.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 180900Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Good confidence of VFR through the TAF period.

Overall TAFs are in good shape. Made some minor adjustments for the
next few hours as pockets of lower clouds with bases at 6-7kft are
developing over west central Indiana. With warm advection...expect
this to increase in coverage through daybreak. Winds will remain
gusty with low level wind shear remaining a concern through mid
morning before the stronger portion of the 850mb jet departs off to
the northeast.

06Z discussion follows.

The main aviation concern will be gusty winds overnight and low
level wind shear through 14z as a tight low level pressure gradient
between high pressure over the southeastern states and an upper
Midwest and central Plains low pressure system. The cold front is
expected to drop southeast across the terminals after 18z. Winds
will be south and southwest around 15 knots with gusts to near 25
knots through 18Z. Winds will drop off this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient weakens near the front. Will see increasing cu,
and would not rule out a shower, but chances too low for the TAFs.





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