Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 161504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017


The Near Term and Aviation sections have been updated below.


Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper trough over southern Quebec and New England will move on to
the east and an upper ridge of high pressure over the rockies will
build build across our region this weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will become unseasonably warm next few days.

An upper low pressure system will move across Tennessee and Kentucky
and may produce a few light showers along and south of I70 Saturday.

An upper disturbance moving east into the great lakes will bring a
chance of showers again Monday night through Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 1004 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Updated sky grids to reflect midlevel cloud band over the area,
and reduced temperatures over the northeast which will be under
the band longest today. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper trough over southern Quebec and New England will move
on to the east.  A ridge of high pressure over Illinois and the
western great lakes will move east across our region later today.
A southerly flow will develop behind this surface ridge and models
indicate a warm front will develop across central Indiana later today
and then move into the southern great lakes late tonight.

For today expect partly to mostly cloudy over central and northeast
sections this morning and mostly clear far southwest.  Model
soundings indicate clouds will decrease some later today...but
partly cloudy conditions will continue over the northeast half
of our region through tonight.

With some sun and a southerly flow developing later today went
slightly warmer than a MOS blend for highs today.  Otherwise...
stayed close to a MOS blend for lows tonight.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday will be mostly clear and warmer as a southwest flow
increases and an upper ridge builds across our region.  This will
be followed by an upper low which will move east across Tennessee
and Kentucky Saturday as ridging aloft continues over northern
sections.  The NAM...GFS and Canadian models are spreading light
precipitation farther north into central Indiana Saturday afternoon
and evening...while the Euro keeps the precipitation south of the
Ohio river.

Will go with a model blend and mention slight chance of light showers
along and south of Interstate 70 Saturday afternoon and evening.
Northern sections will remain dry through the period and will end all
chances of showers south after 05Z Saturday.

Regarding temperatures went slightly warmer than a MOS blend
for highs Friday and Near a MOS blend Saturday with more clouds
despite warm advection.  Most areas will see highs from the upper
50s to middle 60s Friday and upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday.
Lows will be in the 40s which is near a MOS blend.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Feb 16 2017

Ensembles in good agreement with the overall weather pattern during
this period. Mean upper ridging that is expected to be over the local
area during the weekend will flatten out early next week as a short
wave trough moves through the Great Lakes region.

Any lingering precipitation threat from weakening upper low that is
expected to be moving though the Tennessee Valley at the tail end of
the short term should be off to the east by Sunday.

Next precipitation threat expected to be during the early to middle
parts of next week as ensembles suggest a short wave trough may move
through the Great Lakes region by that time. Will go with chance PoPs
starting Monday night, and continue them through next Wednesday.

Temperatures expected to be well above normal under mean upper ridge.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/15z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1004 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Winds have been variable at times and adjusted TAFs to reflect
this. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 602 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR through the period as high pressure ridge over Illinois moves
east across the area today and on to the east tonight.

There will be VFR ceilings at 6 to 9 thousand feet at KIND and
KLAF this morning.  This will break up by mid day leaving only
thin high clouds rest of forecast.

West winds around 5 knots will become southwest this afternoon
and south tonight.   Marginal low level wind shear possible later
tonight...but left mention out of TAF for now.





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