Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250725
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
325 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Long term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A series of front and/or upper disturbances will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of central
Indiana into next week. Temperatures will be near to above average,
and humid conditions will continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 931 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Tail end of vorticity center currently passing into northwest Ohio is
lingering over the northeast zones. Should see a diminishing trend to the
convection in that area over the next couple of hours as this vorticity
tail moves off into Ohio.

Otherwise, this evening`s upper air and wind profilers indicate around 30 kts
of flow at the 850mb level, so potential exists for additional convective
development later tonight. Previous forecast handles this well.

Will make a decision by 250200Z on whether to cancel the remaining portions of
the Tornado Watch.

Previous discussion follows.

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

Upper system across Illinois will continue to produce scattered
convection across the area into early evening. Then there should be
a lull until perhaps a convective complex moves into northwest
sections late tonight.

Will go chance PoPs most areas, diminishing into early overnight.
Ramped back up late into low likely far northwest and chance
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Due to severe weather the discussion will be short.

A cold front will move through on Thursday but upper support is
weak. A potential thunderstorm complex could impact the far
northwest early in the day. Will go slight chance to chance PoPs
most areas, except likely early far northwest.

Kept low PoPs Thursday evening then dry as front sags south. Went
slight chance south Friday with front nearby. As a little upper
support returns along with the front Saturday went low PoPs.

Stuck with model blend on temperatures.

&&

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A strong upper ridge along the middle atlantic coast will weaken
slightly during the long term...although heights will remain high.
A weak frontal system depicted by models will sink south across
Indiana Monday as weak high pressure builds into the great lakes.

Airmass will be quite warm and humid early on...and a little less so
after the front moves through.  The GFS seems overly wet after
Monday given there will be little forcing.  Leaned more towards the
drier GEMNH and European models.  Went with a chance of
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday and no more than a slight chance of
day time storms after the front moves through.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal with daytime highs in the
upper 80s and approaching 90 some areas Sunday...and near normal by
middle of next week with highs in the lower to middle 80s.  Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday cooling to the middle
to upper 60s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

This evening`s upper air and wind profilers indicate a 25-30 kt low
level jet across the area. This may result in an increase of convective
potential in the vicinity of the terminals over the next few hours
as the low level jet increases. Confidence in direct impacts is low at
this time, but it appears the best threat will be in the KLAF vicinity.
Convective threat should diminish after sunrise Thursday as the low level
jet diminishes. Brief IFR visibility restricitions in the heavier cells.
CB bases around 030.

Otherwise, despite the narrow dewpoint depressions, convective potential
overnight should help keep the air mass mixed up enough to prevent
widespread or prolonged IFR visibility restrictions in fog.

Surface winds 200-230 degrees at 5-8 kts overnight will become 220-240
degrees by midday Thursday with occasional to frequent gusts around 18 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH



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