Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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783
FXUS63 KIND 150012
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

The freezing rain threat will end late morning Monday with much
warmer temperatures on their way next week. However, it will be a
rainy period through Tuesday night as a southwestern and trailing
northern Pacific upper system move through the area. A brief dry
period will follow before another system brings rain chances to the
area by next Friday.

Temperatures may reach the 60s next weekend over some locales.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 704 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

With all precipitation out of the area and soundings/hi res models
showing decreased threat for development of freezing drizzle,
have dropped the freezing rain advisory that was still across the
northern half of the area. Still expect there will be slick spots
on untreated roads as moisture from previous round of
precipitation freezes/refreezes, so issued an SPS detailing this
impact.

Dry air is building south into the area and starting to
scatter lower clouds across the northern counties. Some
uncertainty regarding fog threat for overnight with dry air coming
in but low level moisture only slowly retreating to the south.
Will continue to leave out for now as it currently looks like dry
air will win out but will monitor. Low temperatures in the mid 20s
north to low 30s south still look on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Models are in good agreement that moisture will increase again from
southwest to northeast on Sunday as a southern front sets to return
as a warm front and upper waves ejected from a northern Mexican
upper low move across the Ohio Valley. Progged surface temperatures
and lingering warm layer aloft suggest brief freezing rain to start
the day near and west of a Lafayette to Indianapolis to Seymour
line. However, by noon, temperatures will above freezing. Blend
chance pops look good.

A wintry mix of mainly rain and freezing rain Sunday night into
Monday morning is possible Bloomington and north. Otherwise it will
be all rain and become widespread late Monday through Tuesday
morning as the upper low opens up and lifts northeast over the area
and a northern Pacific system follows.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday Night/...

Issued at 247 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Rain will linger into Tuesday night as a low pressure system
continues its track through the Great Lakes Region. As colder air
filters in on the back side, precipitation will briefly transition
to a wintry mix late Tuesday night. However, the bulk of the
moisture will already be out of the area. After that, a dry period
will commence through mid-week before the next disturbance
approaches from the southwest late in the week bringing another
round of rain. Strong warm advection ahead of this system will
result in above normal temperatures through most of the period,
generally stuck close to Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 150000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 554 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Ceilings will start IFR at KIND and KBMG with borderline IFR/MVFR
at KHUF and MVFR at KLAF. Dry air will continue to work south
tonight and should continue to see improvement in the ceilings
over the next several hours. VFR should come into KLAF shortly,
but take more time to make it south to the other sites. Also could
see some MVFR visibilities develop at sites other than KLAF
(where it is now, but should be showing improvement there). Light
northwesterly winds should continue. The next wave bringing lower
ceilings and chances for showers will be moving in from the
southwest tomorrow and included some MVFR ceilings and VCSH at
KHUF and KBMG in the afternoon to account for this.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP



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