Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240746
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, Short Term, Long Term, Aviation, and
Fire Weather sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Pleasant weather will continue into the first half of the work
week as the area remains between a large low pressure system
moving through the southeast and a large frontal system slowly
organizing over the central portion of the country. This frontal
system will move into the area mid to late week, bringing showers
and storms back to the area, followed quickly by another, stronger
low pressure system over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Dry conditions will continue today as the axis of a surface ridge
moves through the area. Bufkit momentum transfer progs suggest
winds may gust into the 18KT range or so this afternoon. High
convective temperatures suggest little or no diurnal cloud cover,
with the only source of cloud perhaps being mid and high cloud
blowoff from the upper low pivoting northeast toward the mid
Atlantic.

Humidity values may approach critical levels this afternoon. See
the fire weather section below for more.

Consensus temperatures were generally reasonable, although did
bump them up very slightly per low level thermal progs and
upstream numbers, as well as dry column and ample sunshine. Mid
70s looks good for most areas today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Dry weather will continue into early Wednesday as guidance has
slowed progression of the warm front and elongated low pressure
centers mid week, which is reasonable and often encountered in
such situations. Will see a gradual increase in cloud cover as the
frontal system approaches, as is typical. This should have little
impact on the forecast however as strong warm advection is
expected ahead of the front.

Will ramp up pops per latest guidance beginning Wednesday
afternoon, with the highest pops late Wednesday night as the front
pushes near the region. Thunder will be a threat, and a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe threat
appears unlikely at the moment, especially given diurnally
unfavorable frontal timing.

Consensus temperatures were generally reasonable, again with only
minor tweaks. Mid to upper 70s can be expected Tuesday, with upper
70s to low 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Active weather and above normal temperatures will occur during much
of the long term period.  An exception may be Thursday afternoon
into early Friday after a cold front moves to the east and weak high
pressure temporarily builds into the great lakes.   There may also
be a brief period of drying over southeast sections Saturday night
and early Sunday as an upper ridge of high pressure aloft builds
along the east coast.

Models indicate low pressure will be over the great lakes with
a cold front extending south across Indiana early Thursday.
This front will move on to the east and weak high pressure will
build into the great lakes by Thursday night.   Another area of
low pressure will develop over the southern plains Friday...then
deepen and move towards the great lakes by Sunday.  A warm front
extending east from this low will move north across Indiana
Friday night and Saturday.   Models indicate a trailing cold front
will approach Indiana by late Sunday as the second area of low
pressure moves into the great lakes.

Lowered Superblend Pops a little Thursday night and Friday as new
Euro is slower moving warm front north our way.  Also lowered POPS a
little across eastern sections late Saturday and early Sunday with a
strong upper ridge along the east coast.

As mentioned earlier...temperatures will be above
normal...especially this weekend with some areas rising into the
lower 80s.  Only made a few tweaks to superblend temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 24/09Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

No significant changes anticipated. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 111 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Monday should be similar to Sunday with some high and mid clouds
moving into area mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Sustained wind will generally remain around 10kt Monday with perhaps
some gusts into the teens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Boundary layer will be well mixed again today, and expect a slight
increase in dewpoints depicted in model guidance to be offset by
this mixing. Surface relative humidity values will likely drop below
30 percent for at least a few hours from midday through the mid
afternoon, with minimum values pushing critical 25 percent
thresholds.

10 hour fuel moisture values have dropped significantly in latest
analysis, and are now 7-8% over much of central and western
Indiana, and just above these critical values over eastern
Indiana.

The good news is that 20 foot sustained wind speeds will likely
remain below 15 MPH today, thus preventing Red Flag conditions.
However, between the dry conditions and low fuel moistures,
coupled with some gustiness to the winds, fire danger cannot
be entirely ignored today. Will make mention of these conditions
in the fire weather products and have day shift monitor evolution
of conditions for further action if necessary later today.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JEH
AVIATION...50/NIELD
FIRE WEATHER...NIELD



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