Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
404 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across
the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move our way Wednesday and a cold front
will push across Indiana around Thursday.

High pressure behind this front will affect our weather Friday and
Saturday.   Another weather system will move our way early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois was brining clear skies
across the region.   Model soundings remain quite dry and only expect a
Few diurnal CU later today...but maybe a bit more far northeast.
850 MB temperatures will be similar to yesterday with values around +10 to
+12 celsius.  Given full sunshine and recent temperature trends went closer
to warmer MET temperatures for highs today with values in the upper 70s
over northeast sections to the lower 80s south.

Tonight will be clear and cool with lows in the middle to upper 50s which
is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tuesday will be mostly sunny as the high pressure system moves on to the
middle atlantic coast.  A light to moderate flow on the back side of the
high will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer Tuesday with highs
in the lower 80s most areas and approaching middle 80s south.

Gulf moisture will spread back into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
An upper disturbance will move our way by Wednesday.  The NAM...GEMNH
and european models have trended a little quicker in spreading precip
our way late Tuesday night.   As a result will mention 20 percent POPS
as far east as INDY by 12Z Wednesday.

Models indicate best upward forcing will remain just northwest of our area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Went with chance POPS most areas Wednesday and
likely POPS northwest and chance POPS elsewhere Wednesday night.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows in the lower
to middle 60s Tuesday night and around 70 Wednesday night.  Highs Wednesday
will be in the lower 80s north and middle 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A cold front is progged to move through Central Indiana on
Thursday, triggering showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
it. This was captured well by latest Superblend initialization, so
did not deviate at this time. As high pressure re-strengthens at
the surface on Friday, any remaining showers and thunderstorms
will become confined to just the far south/southeast counties. Dry
conditions will then prevail into the weekend, but showers and
thunderstorms will brush the west/northwest counties late in the
weekend as an upper trough traverses the Upper Midwest. After
temps near normal on Thursday, they will fall below normal on
Friday in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Expect
temperatures to slowly rebound again through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/0900Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

UPDATE...
No changes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate most of the TAF
period. However, with very light to calm winds, clear skies and
small dew point depressions, tempo MVFR or worse fog at the smaller
airports looks prudent 09z-13z. Should see diurnal VFR cu reform
after 18z and dissipate after 00z Tuesday.

Winds will be calm or very light northwest overnight and back to
southwest and light this afternoon and south and southeast after
00z Tuesday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD


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