Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
348 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Chances for showers and storms will increase from south to north
throughout the day as Cindy remnants move north. Expect to see
rainfall late Thursday night and through much of Friday as this
system provides ample moisture and another frontal system provides
additional forcing. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times,
especially across the southern counties. Cooler drier air will move
in Friday night and stay through the weekend, with a warming trend
next week but little in the way of precip chances.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Current radar mosaic shows some light showers across central
Illinois moving to the east, and may include a low chance pop across
the north over the next few hours with thoughts that they could make
it into the area, but coverage would be small and amounts would be

The remnants of Cindy will move north today along the
Texas/Louisiana border. As they do so the outer bands of forcing
will move north into the forecast area and will see increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms from south to north as the day
wears on. Dew points will be moist in the low 70s but deep layer
tropical moisture should remain south. For temperatures may be a few
degrees cooler than the last couple of days with cloud cover
streaming northward from Cindy. Thus looking at highs in the middle
80s south to upper 80s north.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Most models are in agreement showing a lull in forcing and rainfall
early tonight. Later during the overnight though all seem to be
keying on the arrival of better forcing and deeper layer moisture,
lasting from during the overnight until late Friday afternoon.
During the day Friday a cold front will move through the forecast
area to provide additional forcing to interact the moisture, and by
Friday evening it looks like the cold front will merge with the
surface low left from Cindy and move off to the east Friday night,
bringing an end to the rain. Saturday through Saturday night looks
dry and cooler.

As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, the 0z runs introduced
lower confidence by showing more variability than previous runs. The
ECMWF puts significant rainfall amounts (2 to 4+ inches) across the
entire area by Friday afternoon, while the GFS keeps the heavy axis
south of the area and the NAM brings a swath of around 2+ inches
along the southern border. Blended initialization gives a little
more than 2 inches storm total on the southern border with around an
inch central and lesser amounts north, and plan to stick with this
for now. Given those totals, have no plans for flood headlines at
this time, but hopefully the 12z suite will bring a better cluster
to solutions and have higher confidence in amounts.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Beginning of the forecast period a broad mid/upper level trough
will be across the central and northeastern U.S north of the
middle MS/TN Valleys. The GFS swings an embedded and weakening
short wave trough from the Upper MS Valley into the lower Great
Lakes through late Sunday night, while the ECMWF is slower with
this feature taking it through the lower Great Lakes by Sunday
afternoon. The embedded short wave trough may set off some widely
scattered showers as it moves across the lower Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will be over the central Plains and extend
eastward through the Ohio Valley late Saturday through Tuesday
which will keep area dry with the exception of Sunday afternoon
with the weak mid/upper trough. Expect below normal (highs in the
mid 80s) temperatures through the much of the period with a
little warm up back into the low-mid 80s on Wednesday.

Confidence: Low Confidence with Sunday precipitation.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Area of lower cloud cover near 030 advecting north through the
Tennessee Valley tonight should begin across the terminals from
south to north by the mid to late morning hours of Thursday.
Potential for some shower activity in the vicinity of KBMG/KHUF
towards 221800Z as models suggest deeper moisture and lift may begin
moving into those areas at that time.

Surface winds 180-210 degrees at 5-8 kts overnight will increase
after sunrise Thursday, with potential for surface gusts around 20
kts by early afternoon Thursday.




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