Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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681
FXUS63 KIND 181748
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High pressure over the eastern United States will control Indiana
weather into Saturday.  A weak cold front is forecast to cross our
state Sunday. A much stronger cold front should pass Tuesday. For
the middle of next week high pressure is going to return to
Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

There is very strong model agreement high pressure will cause clear
weather. The models also agree with on factors that will drive the
temperature forecast. Based on recent history a MAV/MET consensus
should work with expected errors of 2 degrees or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

With good model agreement high pressure will cause mostly clear
skies and mild temperatures. there are no major forecast problems.

Both deterministic fields and statistical processes from the various
models support the consensus temperature forecast. It can be used
with expected errors of 3 degrees or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry weather will continue for Saturday before a more active pattern
moves into the region on Sunday. An upper level trough and
associated frontal boundary is expected to move through late Sunday
bringing chances for rain for central Indiana.  A few rumbles of
thunder will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, but with weak
instability coverage will be limited. Confidence is low for chances
for rain going into Monday and Tuesday with uncertainty on how the
system develops as it moves out of the region. Therefore, keeping
chance POPs in for Monday and Tuesday, but keeping them lower than
initialized consensus.

Above average temperatures are expected through Monday before more
fall like weather returns going into the rest of the work week as
the flow becomes more northwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 181800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry high pressure will cause clear weather through the period.

LLWS is possible tonight over northern locations. Otherwise south or
southwest winds should be around 10 knots, with a few gusts to 20
knots, daytime and 5 knots nighttime.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...JK



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