Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED 2 DEGREES BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO A MODEL COOL BIAS YESTERDAY.

MOST OF THE REST OF THIS DISCUSSION IS A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED VERSION
OF WHAT WAS SENT AT 326 THIS MORNING.

AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS RAIN WILL GET.
MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. RAIN WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE DRIER
AIR WORKING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ALSO...MOST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FEEL THAT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY. NOT QUITE SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST RAIN WILL GET...SO KEPT
A BUFFER ZONE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAFAYETTE TO INDY AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE RAIN COVERAGE.
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...STUCK WITH
A BROAD BLEND.

FORCING SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT SO PUSHED POPS FARTHER
NORTH ONCE AGAIN. STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
EXTREME NORTH DRY...THEN CHANCE POPS CENTRAL WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. KEPT HIGHEST POPS SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO SPED UP BY THE
MODELS TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DRY AND ALL THE FORECAST AREA DRY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. IF THIS PATTERN TREND HOLDS...THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME
RELIEF TO MANY FOLKS PLANNING SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ON THE SATURDAY
JULY 4TH.

THEN STARTING SUNDAY WEAK CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR MODELS SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT AFTERWARDS THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS
STALLING THIS FRONT OVER THE AREA AND SOME PUSHING IT SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. KEPT POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD
BELOW LIKELY DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY BUT LEFT IN THE HIGHER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE
MOVES ESE TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.

EXCEPTION TO VFR MAY BE KHUF WHERE MVFR DECKS OF A 1000 TO 2000
FT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND STILL LINGER JUST WEST IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THESE MAY FILL BACK IN TO KHUF AREA AFT 012000Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR THE E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND THESE MAY AFFECT KHUF...KBMG AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ALL BUT KLAF INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

WITH ESSENTIALLY DRY DAY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THINK THE DRYING WILL
HELP PREVENT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KHUF AND KBMG LIKE LAST NIGHT.
EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHILE PATCHY BROKEN CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATION COOLING SHOULD ALSO AID
THE LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

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