Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 202018
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

A pair of frontal systems will bring chances for showers to northern
pasts of central Indiana Tuesday afternoon and night and again
Friday night. Otherwise, high pressure will result in dry weather.

Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and Friday and Saturday as
the cold fronts approach. Behind the fronts, look for below normal
temperatures Wednesday and Thanksgiving as well as Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Models are in good agreement that Missouri Valley upper trough will
move to east of the Mississippi River overnight. Satellite and model
rh time sections suggest high level clouds will be increasing toward
daybreak as an impulse moves trough ahead of the trough.

Low level thermal progs and only high clouds favor the

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

The main focus for the short term will be timing and coverage of
Early weekend showers.

Model and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana Friday afternoon and night. The
front will have a ribbon of sufficiently deep moisture along and
ahead of it. This is enough to small shower chances north Friday
afternoon and night per the blend. Otherwise, Thanksgiving night and
Friday look dry with near normal temperatures. Should see lower 50s
over most locales by Friday with good confidence.

A reinforcing cold front will be moving over central Indiana
Saturday. With this front in the area, confidence in temperatures is
not great Saturday, but for now will gamble on a slow enough frontal
passage that there will be one more day of near normal temperatures
per the blend. Moisture will be lacking with this front and upper
trough, so will not mention any pops. Finally, good confidence in
below normal temperatures and dry weather Sunday and Monday, as high
pressure builds in from the Plains, in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 123 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning.
Model 1000-500 millibar mean level rh progs and rh time sections
suggest there may be enough moisture around to justify small blend
pops north Friday night. Confidence in timing and location is not
great, but there is not enough evidence to make any changes.
Otherwise, high pressure will provide dry weather with near normal
to slightly above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday. A
reinforcing cold front will move through late Saturday and Saturday
night. This will bring a colder airmass back to central Indiana by
Sunday.

Blend temperatures look reasonable with highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s Friday and Saturday but highs only in the upper 30s and
lower 40s Sunday. Confidence in temperature trends is good.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 202100z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 315 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Added low level wind shear from 00z-16z as 45 knot low level jet
moves in from the west.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1139 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Wind gusts will be the only aviation concern through 18z Tuesday.
Winds will gust around 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon and into
the evening hours, but then could slacken overnight before picking
back up Tuesday afternoon. The direction should remain out of the
SSW throughout.

For cloud cover, off and on cirrus will be the rule today and
tonight, with some more mid clouds entering the area Tuesday
morning ahead of a front. Tuesday afternoon could see ceilings
start to drop as a cold front makes its way through the sites but
this will only show up in the extended portion of the KIND TAF
with this issuance. No visibility restrictions expected through
the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK


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