Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO LOW POPS THERE NOW LOOK GOOD. INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...BUT AN 850MB JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE
HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

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