Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 291021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
621 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Some chances for storms will hang around central Indiana today
through Saturday as a frontal system approaches and moves through
the area. After a dry time Saturday night through Sunday night
chances for showers and storms return on Monday and continue
through the period with another frontal system in the area.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Early this morning radar mosaic continues to show showers and
storms over western Illinois and southern Michigan. Despite the
eastward motion of the Illinois echoes, they are making little
actual progress toward Indiana due to the lack of instability and
fairly dry column over the area. This will continue to be the case
for much of today. High resolution and larger operational models
are all depicting the best forcing and storm chances across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Across northern Indiana
light showers will serve to add a little more moisture to the
atmosphere, and best forcing will move across that area today
during the day. Thus will have a chance for showers and storms
there today, but tapering to dry conditions in the south. For
timing the RAP/NAM/HRRR are all showing some precip making it into
the northern counties during the morning and followed this. For
temperatures generally stuck to a guidance average in the mid to
upper 80s given the warm southwesterly flow but cloud cover


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Could see storms moving through the northern part of the forecast
area tonight, possibly an MCS clipping the north. Could see an
isolated strong to severe wind gust, but parameters are not lining
up for a widespread threat over central Indiana with better forcing
remaining to the north and west of the area. Friday into Friday
night will see a cold front move through the area, and with some
instability ahead of it could see some potential for a few strong to
severe storms. The best lift should cross through the area during
the late afternoon to late evening. Models are still differing in
the exit time of rain and storm chances, with anywhere from first
thing Saturday morning being dry in some and chances for rain for
much of the day in at least the southern counties in others. Left a
chance in the south with dry conditions north from initialization.
Everywhere in the forecast area should be dry by Saturday night,

For temperatures looking at highs in the low to mid 80s with a
decent amount of cloud cover Friday and Saturday.


.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Sunday will be dry...while more unsettled weather will occur rest of
the long term period.

Even though a frontal system will be stalled near the Ohio river
Sunday models indicate high pressure should keep everything dry
Then.  This front will drift slowly north Monday and Tuesday as low
pressure over the central plains moves slowly east northeast.

Models are more uncertain towards the middle of next week as the GFS
continues to move the front north as a stronger low pressure system
moves to northern Illinois by Wednesday.   The Canadian...on the
other hand moves the front back to the south Wednesday as high
pressure builds north of the great lakes.   Meanwhile...the Euro
moves the front south slightly...but not as much as the Canadian.

Will go with a blend for now.  Looks like the best chances of rain
will occur around Tuesday...although Monday through Wednesday will
have at least chance POPS.

Models indicate temperatures will be near normal most of the period
with highs averaging in the middle 80s...although Sunday and Tuesday
could be a few degrees cooler some areas.  Low temperatures will be
in the middle 60s Monday night and upper 60s most other periods.
Stayed close to model initialized temperatures during the period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 291800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Just an hour or so of LLWS still remains at KIND. This should
drop off by 13z and wind gusts will pick up out of the southwest
for the day, with gusts at all the sites around 20-28 kts until
evening. Ceilings should remain VFR the day today, and then could
drop to IFR Friday morning on warm advection. Some potential for
thunderstorms today and tonight, but probabilities are low enough
to leave out at all sites but KLAF. There will leave in a couple
VCTS groups when probabilities are highest.




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