Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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707
FXUS63 KIND 240408
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide another dry day on Tuesday, then chances
of rain will return Tuesday night and continue through the holiday
weekend as various upper waves move across the area. Temperatures
will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

No important changes are needed at this time. High pressure thin
high clouds over southwest sections and clear skies elsewhere.  Should
see a little more high thin clouds by morning.  Kept lows from near 50
to lower 50s over east sections as well as Bloomington area and middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough with the big picture, and uncertainty high enough in the
details, that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and the surface high will keep Tuesday warm and dry.

Beginning Tuesday night, a few upper impulses will move across the
area during the short term. Models, as is typical, differ on timing
and impact of these impulses as they move through. Thus will not try
and get too detailed in PoPs Wednesday on.

The atmosphere should take a while to moisten up Tuesday night, and
better forcing should not arrive until the latter part of the night.
Thus only went slight chance PoPs during the evening, with chance
PoPs overnight.

Went chance pops Wednesday through Thursday, since the uncertainty
precludes going any higher.

Generally stuck with a blend on temperatures. Of course temperatures
could be cooler or even a little warmer during the afternoons
depending on convection (or lack thereof).

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Active weather pattern expected during this period as the ECMWF
suggests SW flow in place aloft building into ridging across the
East Coast. Warm and moist southerly flow will remain place across
Central Indiana as several weak but poorly organized upper
disturbances push through the ohio valley. Surface features
appear poorly organized and confidence for precip would be higher
if something was in place to aid forcing. However given the warm
and moist air mass and the occasional short wave along with
diurnal heating...diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as superblend suggests. Given the SW flow...above normal
temps are expected.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions will still prevail for the duration of this TAF
period.  However, mid clouds will increase late in the period as an
upper wave approaches...bringing rain showers after WED 06Z. Winds
will veer from the southeast to southwest with sustained speeds of 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD



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