Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG IS BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...ONLY TWEAKING HOURLY FORECASTS WHERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN. LAYERED HUMIDITY PANELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO SURFACE OR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WEAK FORCING...AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...DON/T
THINK THE THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET SHOVED OFF TO THE
EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON EXPECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD....SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WARM STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DURING THE
LONG TERM AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AMPLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS IN
CENTRAL INDIANA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER TO ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
COOLER CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED AMID NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AFTER THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE JET ALOFT NOW PUSHING SHORT WAVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL WAIT ON
THAT FOR NOW FOR LATER RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS TO VFR AS OF
14Z. BACKED UP LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 17Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT LAF...HUF AND BMG WHERE HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS ARE
NOT AS STRONG.

AFTER HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES BY 14Z...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES MORE SUNNY
SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY.

FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AT BMG...HUF AND LAF AS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS AND SATURATION WILL BE
EXPECTED AT THOSE MORE RURAL TAF LOCATIONS RESULTING IN FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

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