Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231820
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Sunny skies with a lingering haze from earlier fog this morning
over central Indiana. 1330Z temperatures were already into the 70s
in many locations.

Current forecast is in excellent shape with just subtle
adjustments needed for the update. Unlike Friday...the ridge aloft
and the surface high pressure have both drifted west and
strengthened over the Ohio Valley. This will result in a stronger
capping inversion already noted on LAPS soundings...and advection
of drier air from the northeast. With the cap in place and no
feature aloft to help generate storms...expect a dry day with
limited cu as well. Bumped up high temperatures a degree or two
most locations as expect most areas will once again get into the
lower 90s. Dewpoints should be a few degrees cooler than the last
few days but it will still feel very warm with max heat indices
into the 90s. The search for Fall is real.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Model data suggest only a slight progression to the long wave
features expected during this period, with the local area remaining
under the influence of upper ridging. Operational and ensemble data
suggest little threat for precipitation, so will keep the forecast
dry through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods continues to look too cool. Will bump
up the guidance temperatures about 2-5 degrees each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Wednesday will still be warm with highs in the 80s, but colder air
will then flow into central Indiana behind a couple of cold fronts.
The result will be cooler conditions each day Thursday-Saturday,
with highs by Saturday mostly in the 60s.

The fronts will have little moisture to work with, so the blend`s
small PoPs Wednesday and no PoPs Friday (with the second front) look
reasonable.

Confidence is high on the transition to a cooler pattern, but only
medium in terms of having any rain with the first front.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 231800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain dry weather with
little in the way of cloud cover through Sunday afternoon. Could
see a few cu at the terminals both this afternoon and again Sunday
afternoon. With dry air advecting into the region from the
northeast...potential for any visibility restrictions in fog
Sunday morning should be minimal at best. Winds will be light
easterly through much of the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...Ryan



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