882
FXUS63 KIND 291645
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances persist through Monday with the greatest chance
  during the afternoon to early evening hours

- Localized flooding is the primary threat today and Monday, but
  isolated strong wind gusts are also possible on Monday

- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this
  week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A persistent area of convection continues across southern portions
of the forecast area...gradually drifting north and weakening. Lower
stratus had overspread much of the area south of I-70 around the
convection with sunny skies further north. 13Z temperatures were in
the 70s.

The convection has fired over the last few hours along a remnant
convergence axis in tandem with the leading edge of the deeper
moisture and PWAT values. The convection has shown signs of
weakening recently evidenced by a drop in heavier rainfall rates and
is exhibiting a gradual northward drift in response to the moisture
advection from the south. The likely result will be a slow increase
in the potential for isolated to scattered convection further north
into the afternoon although near term trends would support a slow
decrease in coverage as well.

Torrential downpours and localized flooding concerns will remain
front and center today as storms are slow movers and struggle to
maintain any level of consistent intensity in the absence of shear
and with subpar lapse rates through the column. In addition...cloud
to ground lightning will continue to be a primary risk as well to
outdoor activities.

Highs should rise into the mid to upper 80s in most areas with
highest temps likely across northern counties where convective
coverage and overall cloud cover will be lowest. Zone and grid
updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Radar and satellite observations show quiet weather conditions
across the region. This is due to subtle high pressure settling in
which has led to very weak winds over the area. Light winds combined
with low level moisture (dewpoints in the low 70s) will likely lead
to patchy fog development over the next few hours, especially in any
areas that received rainfall on Saturday. Strong daytime heating
should quickly mix out any fog after sunrise.

Deeper moisture is expected to slowly advect northward during the
day as southerly flow increases gradually ahead of an approaching
system. This along with strong diurnal heating will promote
scattered convection, primarily during the afternoon to early
evening hours. High PWATs around or greater than 2.0 inches, warm
rain processes, and very weak deep-layer resulting in slow-moving
storms could lead to localized flooding. Severe weather is not
expected due to poor lapse rates and negligible deep-layer shear.

Despite the loss of daytime heating overnight, increasing dynamics
from the approaching disturbance mentioned earlier will keep rain
chances elevated. Expect deep moisture to also still be in place.
POPs remain capped at or below 30% early tonight as overall forcing
will be weak. POPs then increase to around 30-50% late once stronger
forcing begins to move in. Look for highs in the mid-upper 80s today
with temperatures tonight remaining in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Monday through Monday night..

Expect the unsettled weather pattern to continue early in the work
week. Increasing dynamics from an upper wave and an associated cold
front moving through will support the best chance for precipitation
over the next 7 days. Look for strengthening southwesterly flow
ahead of system to advect deeper moisture northward. Latest guidance
shows PWATs peaking around or slightly higher than 2.0 inches. These
high PWATs and warm rain processes could lead to localized flooding.
Deep-layer shear is weak so severe weather appears unlikely, but
moderate destabilization and marginal effective bulk shear may
promote isolated strong wind gusts with any loosely organized
storms.

The system begins to shift east Monday night with rain chances
diminishing. Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected overnight
once drier air filters in behind the departing cold front. Expect
highs to generally be in the mid 80s and lows around the mid 60s to
near 70F.

Tuesday onward...

Mostly quiet weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday as weak
high pressure settles in. Dewpoints falling into the 60s and
possibly even upper 50s across the north should feel much more
comfortable compared to the very humid conditions last week. It is
worth noting, a few models depict a weak frontal boundary moving in
from the north on Thursday. A narrow band of moisture ahead of the
boundary and weak forcing could perhaps lead to isolated showers or
storms.

Ensemble guidance suggest deeper moisture begins to stream northward
again towards the end of the week with upper ridging shifting east.
This will lead to increasing rain chances, particularly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Overall forcing appears very weak
until a system approaches over the weekend so expect any diurnal
convection to be isolated.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms through the afternoon, then more
  numerous coverage late tonight into Monday
- Patchy fog possible near daybreak Monday
- MVFR ceilings at times early this afternoon then again on Monday

Discussion:

Moist and unstable airmass across the region will again aid in
scattered convective development through the afternoon...especially
across the southern half of central Indiana. Brief restrictions will
be possible with any heavier shower or storm. Ongoing pockets of
MVFR stratocu will lift to VFR levels over the next few hours as
well.

There may be a brief lull in convection this evening as diurnal
heating is lost but a series of weak upper level waves set to move
through the Ohio Valley overnight and into Monday will bring
additional convection to central Indiana likely to be more
widespread in coverage on Monday.

MVFR ceilings are again a possibility in the predawn hours through
the first half of Monday. Winds will generally be light and
southerly through much of the forecast period...veering to southwest
on Monday and increasing closer to 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan