Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS AND GEMNH
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 12Z EURO IS
ALMOST A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT CREATES A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THIS IS OFTEN A BIAS WITH THE
EURO...SO WILL KEEP EVERYTHING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR NOW.  WILL BEGIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE MU CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG TUESDAY...SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE WENT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST
OTHER PERIODS.  ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVENT MODELS TREND SLOWER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SUPER BLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS A BIT TOO
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANED CLOSER TO A HPC GFS BLEND.
OTHERWISE...SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF
GROUND FOG AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES FROM 09Z-13Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR CATEGORY AT OUTLYING TAF SITES
AND MVFR AT KIND WHERE CITY EFFECT MAY LESSEN FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE
THERE.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
5 KNOTS.  MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY SPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

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