Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140617
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
217 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure is expected across the area for the next couple of
days. A frontal system may affect the area over the second half of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest Tonight/...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Forecast is in good shape and only made some minor changes. Added
patchy fog north where on average through the night less clouds are
expected. Upped clouds across the south (although still partly
cloudy) based on latest trends seen on satellite and latest model
data. Tweaked low temperatures based on these trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected through tonight as surface high pressure
remains in control. Diurnal clouds should dissipate with sunset,
with only some passing high clouds expected tonight, especially
this evening.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows tonight look good, so
only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Model data suggest heights will gradually build across the area over
the next couple of days as upper ridging moves into the Ohio Valley.
This should help to keep conditions dry for the most part through
Tuesday.

By the middle of the week, upper level disturbances will begin
ejecting out of a western long wave trough through the Plains and
towards the Great Lakes. As a result, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase by that time. Will put in some chance
PoPs for Wednesday.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the next few days looks reasonable, so any adjustments
will be minor.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

ECMWF suggests mainly a zonal flow during this period...with a
departing short wave moving through the eastern Great Lakes on
Thursday. This result in broad and weak cyclonic flow within the
lower levels and we have included some small chances for pops as
this system departs.

On Friday through Sunday...the ECMWF suggests large...broad but
disorganized high pressure over the Mississippi valley building
eastward across the Ohio Valley. the mid level appear dry with
subsidence and aloft the zonal flow remains with no upper
support. Thus dry weather for next weekend looks reasonable at
this time.

Overall with the zonal flow in place temperatures near seasonal
normals appear reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 140600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

MVFR conditions expected at KLAF late tonight, otherwise VFR.

High clouds should thin some at KLAF, allowing some MVFR fog to form
overnight. Still think that there will be enough clouds to prevent
lower visibilities, but confidence is only medium here. Any fog will
burn off quickly after sunrise.

Mid and high clouds will remain across the rest of the sites, and
these should keep fog at bay (along with the heat island at KIND).
Believe that any rain that would have any impact will remain south
of KBMG late tonight/early Monday as an upper system passes to the
south.

Some cumulus will form again on Monday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...50



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