Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WEAKENS.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  DRY COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT & SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS FURTHER DUE TO ANY
ADDITIONAL CLEARING. SO...WILL KEEP FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS HAD CLEARED OR WAS CLEARING OVER MUCH OF
OUR REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO TIPTON LINE.
MEANWHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ON TO THE
EAST.  IN MOST AREAS WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ONCE AGAIN A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY.  MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE GFS IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND THE GFS.  MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW COULD SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY.  1000 TO 850
MB AND 1000 TO 700 MB THICKNESS FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF INDY
SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIP FROM INDY NORTHWARD...EXCEPT MOSTLY ALL
SNOW FAR NORTH.  AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY...COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AS FAR AS SNOW
AMOUNTS WENT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO
AN INCH IN THE INDY AREA AND ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING FAR SOUTH.  ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z MONDAY AND WITH DRY WEATHER
AGAIN MONDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER PERIODS. MEANWHILE
NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD END UP A BIT COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BASICALLY DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING ZONAL FLOW. A
WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AND LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER MOISTURE
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR JUST RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COOLER THAN AVERAGE BUT RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS TO VFR AT KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL BUT KBMG. A STUBBORN
AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER MOST OF THE SITES DESPITE
ERODING SOME FROM BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEST. WITH THE EROSION
OF THE DECK CURRENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP EXPECT TO SEE SITES GO
VFR AFTER AROUND 3-4Z. STILL A CHANCE STRATUS COULD HANG AROUND
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL UPDATES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT PICK
BACK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW A GOOD INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH SO WILL BRING CEILINGS BACK
DOWN TO MVFR THEN AT ALL BUT KHUF WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CEILINGS GIVEN IT/S LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE WAVE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP

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