Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 181034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A VERY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE CLEAR
SKIES WERE THE RULE IN THE NORTH.  A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTED FOG. BUT
I DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SUNRISE.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY.  HOWEVER THE MAV TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT TOO WARM.

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION.   WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN
REGARDS TO POPS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS SATURDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM +9 TO +12 CELSIUS EARLY FRIDAY
WARMING TO +16 TO +18 CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY.  WENT WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE SO TOOK OUT ANY LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY GROUND FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AT THE OUTLYING
SITES...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD HAVE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU. WINDS WILL BE
4-8 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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