Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 232030
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
330 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Upper troughing will keep temperatures near normal and some
chances for a light wintry mix or flurries in the forecast through
Wednesday. High pressure building in Wednesday night will bring
dry weather and warming conditions through Friday. Chances for
rain will move back in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Scattered light showers of a wintry precip mix are occurring
across central Indiana at 3 pm. Most of these are more of the
flurries/sprinkles variety with no measurable precip, but a few
spots could see a hundredth or two over the next few hours. These
should continue to move east across the area and move completely
east of the area early tonight. The rest of the night should
likely be dry with a brief little upper ridge sliding through the
area. Clearing seems unlikely though given the cloud deck upstream
on satellite. Thus expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies to last
through the night. The cold advection will still bring lows down
into the 20s, but the clouds and higher dewpoints should keep them
from falling any lower than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Wednesday morning an upper shortwave trough will approach from the
west and move through the forecast area during the day. Although
confidence isn`t high, this could bring chances for flurries to
the area. It is highly unlikely that any accumulation will occur.
High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees cooler than
today with mostly cloudy skies and continued cold advection.

Wednesday night upper ridging starts to build toward the area, and
warm advection will ramp up during the day on Thursday as surface
high pressure moves across the area. Confidence is high on dry
weather from Wednesday night through Thursday night, and medium
confidence it lasts through the day on Friday. Temperatures will
again climb above normal, and for Friday highs will reach into the
50s. Southwesterly flow on Friday could also produce some gusty
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Monday Night/...

Issued at 107 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement in bringing an upper trough
through the local area early next week, around Sunday or Monday.
Some model disagreements on how deep the trough will be, but did
not differ much from latest intialization.

Will go with PoPs from Friday night through Sunday to cover this
feature. Cold front should move through the area Saturday night,
early Sunday morning. Front will bring a transition from rain to
wintry precipitation. By the time it transitions, moisture will be
minimal so a little to no snow accumulation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/21Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Updated current conditions. Previous discussion follows...

TAF sites will remain in the cold advection and wraparound
moisture of low pressure system currently over the eastern Great
Lakes Region. As a result, IFR/MVFR conditions will linger
throughout the TAF period with low ceilings and reduced
visibilities. Meanwhile, winds will generally be
west/northwesterly at 12 to 15 kts, gusting to 23 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....KH/TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP



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