Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1202 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 253 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Brief ridging will result in dry conditions today across central
Indiana. However, the pattern will quickly change late tonight as
the next system moves into the area. Rain will spread across the
area on Wednesday, eventually mixing in with snow on Wednesday
night and Thursday as colder air filters in on the back side of
the low. Lingering moisture will keep low chances for snow in the
forecast across the north and east through Friday. After that,
temperatures near normal and weak upper waves will result in some
additional snow chances over the weekend before an upper ridge
returns on Monday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 945 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Northwesterly winds will decrease during the day as pressure
gradient across the area decreases. A stout temperature inversion
will keep low level moisture trapped throughout the day and thus
cloudy skies will result. Could see clouds scatter a little starting
in the southwest late this afternoon, but most of the area will
stay cloudy for the entire day. With the cloud cover and
northwesterly winds temperatures not expected to get out of the


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 253 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be precipitation
chances and type with a low pressure system.

Dry conditions will prevail through tonight; however, focus then
turns to the next system tracking northeast through Illinois and
Wisconsin. Warm advection ahead of the associated front will raise
temperatures into the 50s on Wednesday afternoon with some rain
showers along and ahead of it. Forcing will strengthen further
though as an associated cold front moves through late in the day,
increasing pops from northwest to southeast across the forecast
area on Wednesday evening. As the colder air filters in behind
the front, there will be a transition to a rain/snow mix on
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Any snow accumulations are
expected to be minimal though, and this is a medium to high
confidence forecast due to consistent model trends over the last
several days.

As temperatures slowly rise into the upper 30s on Thursday
afternoon, any lingering precipitation over the eastern counties
will change back to rain. Thursday night, temperatures will dip
into the 20s, and again there will be a transition back to snow
showers, but little accumulation.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday night/...
Issued at 252 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Central Indiana will see a few upper waves drop southeast across the
area in mean western ridge and northeastern trough pattern. This
will result in slightly below seasonable weather with snow showers
or flurries from time to time. That said, moisture will be lacking
somewhat, so will not go any higher than the regional blend small
chance pops over all or parts of the forecast area Friday and Sunday
and Sunday night.

Upper ridge should allow for dry and seasonable weather next Monday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 241800Z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

MVFR conditions can be expected for most of the afternoon.
Ceilings should rise to VFR after 22-0z and remain there for
several hours before they drop back to MVFR after around 6-10z.
Could see some IFR develop as well just after daybreak, around
13-15z. Winds will shift from light and northwesterly to southerly
around 5-10 kts. By midmorning Wednesday should see winds
increasing out of the southwest to around 10-12 kts with gusts of
18-24 kts.




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