Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 231712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOLER AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED BEHIND THE STUFF THAT
CROSSED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE THE UPDATE
WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER POPS THAN THE EARLIER FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  AS A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF
OUR AREA CONTINUES SOUTH...DRIER AIR SHOULD KILL OFF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND OVERALL. A QUIET END TO THE WORK WEEK LOOKS IN STORE
AS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS COOL AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOW A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE. THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS QUICK AND
FRONT THE NORTHWEST...THUS A FEW PASSING CI WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT WITH OCCASIONAL
SATURATION APPEARING ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING IN THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BEGINNING TO HINT AT A TOP DOWN SATURATION...AND
SOUTHERLY AND MORE HUMID FLOW WILL HAVE ARRIVED. WILL INCLUDE SOME
CHC POPS FOR NOW AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING AND
PROGRESSION WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CHANGEABLE AT A PERIOD THIS FAR WAY
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING HIGH. WILL TREND TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
MAVMOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM SO USED
A BLEND. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HAD SOME PROBLEMS SO DEVIATED FROM
IT WHEN NECESSARY.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND AND FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

DURING THE WEEKEND A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING COLD FRONTS WITH THEM. UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING THAT FAR OUT PRECLUDE GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS FOR ANY ONE PERIOD.

ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. AFTER THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK
IN RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE SNEAKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FO THE 23/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART AS COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MAINLY ON A
KMIE-KIND-KHUF LINE. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SCATTERED -SHRA OVER WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH WILL EFFECT ALL BUT KLAF THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST GOING INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES GOING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. QUESTION IS
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BETTER SITES FOR FOG WILL BE KHUF
AND KBMG WHICH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...DWM

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.