Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 071428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A WET COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST AND
STALL OVER INDIANA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT IN TO FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND BRING DRIER BUT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BACK TO INDIANA TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 925 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. RAINFALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
HINTS AT A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW ENHANCING RAIN RATES
IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NORTH BAND
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EAST OF ST. LOUIS.

CLOUD COVER KEEPS INSTABILITY SUPPRESSED SOME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER 2 INCHES TIES WELL WITH OBSERVED RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY AND NW INDIANA. HAVE THUS
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO FORECAST.

MAX TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE CURRENT READINGS STILL EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
AS IT STALLS ACROSS INDIANA. THUS IT WILL BECOME THE FOCAL AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
SATURATED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.80 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE. THUS WE
WILL JUST NEED TO LOOK FOR A FORCING MECHANISM.

FIRST OFF WE HAVE DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE FOR US. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE VERY ATTAINABLE...IN THE 70S ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THUS ANY HEATING SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. ALOFT THE GFS DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
INDIANA OVER THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAM IS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WITH ORIENTATION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE
TIMING...BUT NONETHELESS...FORCING APPEARS HEADED OUR WAY THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS OUR EQUATION IS NOW

MOISTURE + FORCING = HIGH RAIN CHANCES.

WILL TREND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS
VALUES...TRENDING HIGHEST POPS DURING THE PERIODS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOW BEST FORCING
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED WILL TREND LOW WARMER
THAN MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER.

BEST FORCING APPEARS TO DEPART ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AT THAT TIME AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MANAGES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. WILL TREND POPS LOWER AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. FIRST...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
WILL BE A SOURCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADES WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONGER LATE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST
REGIONAL SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE BECAUSE POPS INCREASE BACK INTO THE HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
BE ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/15Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL START
IMPACTING TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER TO IFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A VCTS MENTION FOR NOW DUE TO HOW ISOLATED
IN NATURE CURRENT STORMS ARE.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN TAF PERIOD...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY AT THAT POINT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.