Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 221926
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN ACROSS THE REGION AND REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS DWINDLING AS WELL. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLOUDS...TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID 80S IN THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY.

NORTHERN COUNTIES GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND STORMS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE LAST 30-36
HOURS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL FACTORS WOULD SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO RECOVER AND
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEPEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER SOUTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE
WARMER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THETA-E RIDGE ALSO POINTED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. FINALLY...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO REMAINS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING LACKING...ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY...A BROAD CHANCE POPS SEEMS PRUDENT.

BEYOND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ANOTHER
PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE EXPANSION LATER TONIGHT AS A FEW PIECES OF
ENERGY ALOFT RIPPLE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND ADD THEIR WEIGHT TO THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. ONE POSSIBLE MITIGATING ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY SERVE TO KEEP
STORMS MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WILL BE DROPPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST RELEASE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC AND COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY OVER DELAWARE/RANDOLPH COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND MONITOR VERY CLOSELY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

TEMPS...ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. A CONSMOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE AND WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIAL HEAT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POP FORECAST REMAINS HIGH FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...VERY POSSIBLE THAT
STORMS ARE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH AT THE VERY LEAST REMNANT
CLOUD DEBRIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ATTEMPT TO
RISE WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING DURING THE DAY BUT IN GENERAL...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUBTLE CAPPING
DEVELOPING AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 10-11C. LEFTOVER BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER AND WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ITS HOLD ON THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS CORE OF THE WARMEST
AIR ALOFT ALIGNS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE FOR WEEKEND HIGHS.
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN BELOW 90
DEGREES WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND FAR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR
KIND TO MAKE A RUN AT THEIR FIRST 90 OF THE YEAR COMES MONDAY WITH
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. CONSIDERING THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS HOWEVER...WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE TEMPS A TOUCH
WARMER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT 90+. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP
THEM JUST SHY OF 90 FOR THE MONDAY HIGH. WE SHALL SEE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BIGGEST IMPACTS IN THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER AIR AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND BRING NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT FRIDAY DRY AS FRONT
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE RAIN AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE POOR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS ILLINOIS.
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SO ONLY WENT VCSH AT KHUF. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR NOW BELIEVE MORE CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ADDED VCTS AT KLAF
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE MAY GET
TO KIND...BUT NOT COMFORTABLE PUTTING IN TSRA YET. ELSEWHERE
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY POP UP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
KHUF-KBMG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND IN
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.