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000
FXUS63 KIND 241357
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT DRY WEATHER FOR INDIANA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING MORE CLOUDS...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MEMORIAL DAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN
NEXT WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

USED IR TOOL FOR PESKY STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRATUS WAS GRADUALLY ERODING AND SETTLING SOUTHWEST
AND SHOULD BE GONE AROUND NOON LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH WOODS OF WISCONSIN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. COOL NORTH FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. IR PICTURES
SHOWED STRATOCU EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE WESTERN 1/2 OF
THE OF THE STATE HAD ALREADY BECOME CLEAR.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN OUR 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 3-5 DEGREES AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION...WE WILL NOT GET THAT
WARM. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY.

BACK TO TEMPS...GIVEN OUR 850MB TEMPS AND THE COOL START AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONGOING
WEATHER. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LARGE ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA...CONTINUING TO DOMINATE
TH REGIONS WEATHER...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR...COOL NIGHTS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAYS.

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES ALOFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE
SPILLING INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. BY SATURDAY...SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD
NEAR 5C THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WITH A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

GFS INDICATES A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GULF MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE RELATIVELY DRY 40S. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS SOME LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES RISE TO NEAR 7G/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS HINT AT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE
COLUMN HOWEVER. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN REMAINS LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHC POP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD VALUES AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE...AT LEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AT THOSE TIMES.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD MORE AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE AREA AS DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP
OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY. WILL GO
DRY FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 015-020 IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME CLOUD NEAR THIS LEVEL
LINGER FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS TIME GOES BY.

OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW 8-12KT
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 250000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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