Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA AROUND THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND
IT. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME FROST APPEARS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST A CHANGE BACK TO A COOLER
AND DAMP PATTERN LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND BEGINS T0 CUT
OFF.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AT 1330Z SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUD
DECK HAS REACHED AN AREA NEAR A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO BLOOMINGTON
WITH SOLID CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE AND CLEAR SKIES TO
THE NORTH. WINDS ARE GUSTING IN THE CLEAR AREA AT 20-30 KTS OUT OF
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SITES SEEING A TEMPORARY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD SHIFT BACK WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING YET THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THEY START TO REBOUND
WITH FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS GOING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
AREA. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGE PRESENCE. WILL CARRY NO POPS
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
HIGH END LIKELIES APPEAR WARRANTED WITH THE FRONT AS IS PASSES
THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING QUICKLY AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN
THE OVERNIGHT. K INDEX AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE VERY NARROW. SPC DAY 3 SEE
TEXT/5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ARE REASONABLE.

MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPS APPEARED A BIT TOO COOL ACROSS THE BOARD ON
HIGHS...SO MOST PERIODS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MOS BLEND. MAY
END UP NEEDING FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK BORDERLINE AT THE MOMENT AND WINDS
STAY UP A BIT. WILL CARRY SOME FROST IN THE GRIDS BUT HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE DURING THE EXTENDED...FROM A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TO A MUCH MORE BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED AND
LIKELY COOLER WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR NEXT WEEK.

OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT AND A RESUMPTION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. A TRAILING UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW WILL PINWHEEL BEHIND THE OCCLUDED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DROP A SECONDARY FRONT INTO THE REGION. HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE
THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LACKING ALONG THE FRONT AND BULK OF THE
FORCING ALOFT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
A SHIFT BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
POKES DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WITH A
SHARPENING UPPER WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT
OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS
UP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT PRESENCE OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY SUGGESTIVE OF A MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH CENTRAL INDIANA LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER ALLBLEND WITH HIGHS
LARGELY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS BECOMING
CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS NEXT WEEK. STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A CLOUDY COOL
DAMP PATTERN TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED ALL TERMINALS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.

DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATORS TODAY WILL
BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS SUSTAINEDS PEAK AT 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...WITH
N/NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

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