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000
FXUS63 KIND 241030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTLES ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AND WARMER...MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL PASSING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT WAS FOUND STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S. IR IMAGES SHOW THAT SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TODAY...BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY. GFS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL INVERSION
ALOFT. CU RULE REMAINS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. THUS WILL EXPECT SOME
SCT FLAT TOPPED AFTERNOON CU TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH ONGOING
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 11-12C
BY 00Z FRI...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAV...CLOSER TO THE
MEXMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SLOWLY
PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA
TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME ARE DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY LOOK UNREACHABLE. ALOFT...QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN UNTIED STATES BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET-UP TONIGHT WILL TREND AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT GFS AND NAM SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT
AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHING TOWARD INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN AROUND THE PASSING HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. 310 GFS
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITES OVER 10 G/KG. THIS SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT OVER ILLINOIS WITH
SUGGESTED PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST...TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA.
THUS WILL RAMP UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE PASSING TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THESE
WAVES ARE AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE WEAKER FEATURES EXPECTED
TO PUSH ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR MOIST WITH GOOD CAPE AVAILABLE...BUT THERE MAY BE A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGEST 700MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10C. THUS FOR NOW
WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN PLACE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW. WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO MAVMOS AND TREND WARMER THAN
MAVMOS ON LOWS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

THE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE TROUGH BUILDS IN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
THANKS TO THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND
10KT.

MOST CEILINGS AROUND THE AREA ARE VFR AND THIS TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE. THERE ARE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND CANNOT RULE THESE OUT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SCATTER THE CEILINGS OUT. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM AND THIS COULD HELP LEAD TO MVFR FOG
LATE AT ALL BUT KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

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