Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1147 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TO OHIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OUR WAY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD SUNDAY...BUT THEN A
LITTLE COOLER AFTER THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST THROUGH THE
HEART OF DIXIE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS ONGOING AMID NORTHERLY
FLOW. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. THUS ANY BREAKS
THAT DO OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN WITH
STRATOCU. WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK
GOOD AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. EXPECT ONGOING FLURRIES TO
SLOWLY TREND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR AREA.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES.

A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING TREND A LITTLE SATURDAY AS MODELS DEVELOP A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS SATURDAY BELOW THE
INVERSION.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.  SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.  IN MOST CASES...WENT NEAR A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.  LATEST SUPERBLEND SEEMS KIND OF HIGH WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SINCE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE
LACKING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT
ALSO SEEMS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE...SO WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS POINT.  THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DURATION OF LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS
MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR PRESENT OVER THE MIDWEST IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS UP TO LOW END
VFR...EXPECT THIS TO LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOW CEILINGS ERODE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECT MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 10-15KT...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AROUND 8KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

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