Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

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