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000
FXUS63 KIND 101854
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
INDIANA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A COMPLEX
PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE...A WARM FRONT...AND A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO BE
BACK MONDAY. TUESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SHOW UP.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE TONIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MOST
CLEAR SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUPPORT THIS.

THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST PROBLEM. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. DETAILS OF CLOUDS AND WINDS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. SATELLITE POINTS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY. INVERSION SHOULD FORM. WHEN THAT HAPPENS
TEMPERATURES APT TO PLUNGE IN RESPONSE TO ANY MINOR CLOUD BREAKS OR
WIND LULLS.

ALL THAT SUPPORTS USING COLDER MAV IN MOST PLACES. WILL BE ABOUT CAT
LOWER THAN THAT IN EXTREME SOUTH. GUIDANCE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
TOTALLY ACCOUNTING FOR DEEP SNOW


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

ALL MODELS HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES
ALOFT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY.

THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE FORECAST PROBLEM. THESE ARE
TRICKY..ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...SINCE THEY WILL BE SO SENSITIVE TO
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS MAV AT NIGHT AND MAV MET
CONSENSUS DAYS LOOKS BEST. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE
GET BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT CLOUDS IN A GIVEN PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED STAYED
CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THIS FEATURE...SO SLOWED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH.

THUS WENT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.
SOME QUESTION ON PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM AIR
WILL GET. THEREFORE WENT SNOW NORTH 2/3 AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH 1/3 OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IF LOW GOES FARTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO JUST RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL DEPENDING ON TRACK.

SOME COLD ADVECTION AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY SO WENT LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM COULD MOVE IN FOR
MONDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION ANY
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 101800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MAIN ISSUE FOR TERMINAL OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS.
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KTS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY SETTLING AT 240-250...SUSTAINEDS AT
15-20KTS AND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ESTABLISHES...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
DROPPING BELOW 10KTS.

AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BACK TO S/SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING TO WESTERLY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AT KLAF...BUT CHANCES LOOK FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...RYAN

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