Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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969
FXUS63 KIND 240133
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
933 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A low pressure system over the Rockies will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to central Indiana this weekend and early next week.
Then, a southern system will bring more shower chances to the area
late next week. Low level winds will be mostly from the south and
southwest which will result in mostly mild temperatures with highs
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 926 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Slight northward adjustment of POPS area as band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms continue eastward track across locations
mainly north of our forecast area. rapid refresh still suggests
some southward development along the N-S axis as it shifts east
but overall it has been more aggressive than what has transpired.
In any event, all this should past east by midnight.

Slowed dewpoint rises this evening a bit compared to recent
forecast and moistening may still be more aggressive than what
will occur given fairly low dewpoints upstream that will advect in
during the overnight.

Skies will become partly cloudy overnight and temps should be
nearly steady and perhaps even rise some late. Fair difference in
IR satellite between cool 40s and 50s over IL and In vs mid 60s to
mid 70s back across MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Unsettled weather is expected over much of the short term. Timing
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms along with temperatures
will be the main focus.

Models agree that an upper low, currently over the Rockies, will
open up as it pivots across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday
afternoon. As it does, an associated surface low will move over the
area and result in a stalled out or slow moving cold front nearby.
With warm, moist and unstable inflow combined with the lift, should
see showers move in from west to east Friday night and become
widespread by Saturday. Best chances look to be Saturday afternoon
to Sunday morning.

Instability progs support at least isolated thunder Saturday through
Sunday.

Blend temperatures look ok. 850 millibar temperature afternoon high
temperature forecasting chart suggests going with temperatures at or
slightly above model and mos blend with highs in the 60s. Could even
see 70 degrees south of Bloomington on Friday. Overnight lows will
be only in the 50s.



&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Back to back low pressure systems will affect the forecast area
during the extended period. The first system is progged to enter
central Indiana Monday morning, and thunderstorms were introduced
into the forecast with this issuance. The thunderstorm threat will
be best during the afternoon and evening with best heating of the
day. Rain showers will linger into Tuesday morning, but the
thunderstorm threat should diminish early Monday night. After dry
conditions around mid-week, the next system will track through the
Southern and Central Plains and into the Lower Midwest by
Thursday. As a result, rain chances will increase late in the
period. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be above
normal with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /dISCUSSION FOR 240000z TAFs/...

Issued at 709 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR visibility through the period. VFR decks drop to MVFR decks
around 2500 feet from 241500z-241800z as warm moist air feeds up
from Gulf. Strengthening winds aloft develop wind shear during
the overnight and gustiness to 20+ knots mixes to surface by
241400z.

Band of scattered warm advection showers to impact KIND north-
northwest through 240400z as they traverse east. Thunder northern
IL and southern WI will stay well north.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...Tucek



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