Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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912
FXUS63 KIND 142037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
337 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
COME TO AN END TONIGHT BUT COULD GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
THE RULE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW OR A
PRECIPITATION MIX. TUESDAY A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
AND OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AT 3 PM WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A MILE VISIBILITY IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HI RES MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ACCUMULATION ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING AROUND 6 PM IN THE WEST. MODELS SHOW SOME FORCING
WILL PIVOT BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 8 TO 11 PM
BRINGING A COUPLE MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT BUT STILL
A LITTLE UPWARD MOTION IN THE LOW SATURATED LEVELS...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT CAUSING SOME
ADDITIONAL SLICKNESS ON UNTREATED ROADS. WHILE MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DONE BY AROUND 6-9 PM...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO EXTEND IF FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP AND IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS
USED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEADY WITH WARM
ADVECTION COMBATING DIURNAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW AND PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA COULD KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING AS IT PULLS AWAY. THEN A SURFACE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UP TO OHIO COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ON TUESDAY THE BEST FORCING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SEEN WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WITH IT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW BRINGING IT RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA...BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE IN THE RANGE WHERE A DEGREE OR
TWO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. FOR NOW
WENT WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AND
BRINGING FIRST A MIX TO THE SOUTH AND THEN RAIN TO THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX CENTRAL. COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BUT
LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
QUICKLY AND BE ON ITS WAY SO CHANCES DROP OFF RAPIDLY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GENERALLY WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD.   MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY.  A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.  SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER.   LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN BY SUNDAY.   STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES IN MOST CASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

AREA OF SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO INDIANA AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION.  EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND STILL MOSTLY IFR EARLY TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.   CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THOUSAND AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO 6 MILES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALOFT.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY MONDAY...A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY ON...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
5 TO 8 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



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