Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated


Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Some fog starting to show up on recent observations. Expecting some
patchy fog through the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, not seeing anything in the model data to serve as a
precipitation trigger, so will continue with a dry forecast under
strong ridging aloft.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Model data suggest only a slight progression to the long wave
features expected during this period, with the local area remaining
under the influence of upper ridging. Operational and ensemble data
suggest little threat for precipitation, so will keep the forecast
dry through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods continues to look too cool. Will bump
up the guidance temperatures about 2-5 degrees each period.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Warm conditions will continue early in the long term, then much
cooler will move into the area to end the work week.

Lingering upper ridging will keep the area dry Tuesday, but the cold
front with the much cooler air behind it will move through on
Wednesday bringing low chances for showers to parts of the area.
Current timing puts the front moving through when there should be
little instability, so continued to leave out any mention of thunder.

There is still some uncertainty on timing of the front which could
have impacts on rain chances if it changes. However, confidence is
high for the much cooler air moving in by late next work week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for KIND 230600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

With the exception of visibility restrictions from fog near
daybreak...VFR conditions are anticipated.

mostly clear overnight with areas of fog towards sunrise at outlying
TAF sites.  Will mention tempo IFR for a few hours.  Then all fog
will out after sunrise. Will mention a few CU Friday afternoon.
Otherwise...high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear through
rest of the period.

Winds will be light through the period.




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