Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.


Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.S. east coast will
keep us in a summer like pattern until late next week.   A series of
weak upper disturbances will bring chances of thunderstorms through
the weekend as they move across our region.

High pressure will bring dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  An upper low
moving towards the great lakes will bring a chance of thunderstorms
again from the middle of next week on...along with slightly cooler
temperatures late next week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

water vapor satellite indicated a strong upper ridge along the east coast
while an upper low was over eastern Colorado.  So far it has been pretty
quiet across Indiana today...but an upper disturbance moving into the
lower Mississippi valley was producing scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over lower and middle Mississippi valley this afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms may spread into western and central parts of our
region by late evening as an upper disturbance moves our way.  Will mention
a chance of thunderstorms from INDY and westward towards midnight and a
slight chance of storms elsewhere as an disturbance passes by.

Given that there is no change of air mass lows tonight should again be in the
lower to middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.


.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Forecast focus continue to be rain chances over the weekend as a couple
of weak upper disturbances move from the southern and central plains
towards the great lakes.  Air mass will remain moist and unstable over
the weekend and in addition models move a weak cold front our way Sunday.
Models indicate thunderstorms will be partially diurnal and will mention
chance POPS Saturday afternoon and Sunday and slight chance POPS most other
periods through Sunday evening.

After that will go dry as drier air and weak high pressure builds into our region
late Sunday night and Monday.

There will be a bit more clouds which may limit temperatures Saturday.  But overall
highs will be in the lower to middle 80s all 3 days while lows will be in the
middle to upper 60s over the weekend and lower 60s Monday morning.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Timing of the thunderstorms will be the main focus next week.

Ensembles suggest a cold front will move across central Indiana
Midweek followed by an upper trough late week. This should result in
more thunderstorm chances by Tuesday night after a dry start to the

Temperatures will start off above normal and then slide back to
seasonable late in the week. This is reflected with the regional


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 271800Z IND TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VFR conditions expected in the TAF period with just some diurnal cu
around 4k feet below higher clouds. The exception could be at mainly
LAF and HUF...where a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. With confidence in coverage of any pop ups...only went
with VCTS through 06z at LAF and HUF an no mention at IND and BMG.
Will take a last minute look...however in case any adjustments need
to be made.

Winds will be south near 10 knots this afternoon and a few knots
lighter tonight.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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