Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281909
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BY MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATELLITE INDICATE LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST PARTS OF OUR REGION.  MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.  OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FAR WEST
LATE TODAY.  HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOESN/T LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A SUSTAINED 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ALL
AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL WARMER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WARMER AIR MAY GET FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY
START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL
ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT...LOOKS LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE SITUATION. THE LACK
OF A GOOD SURFACE FEATURE LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA AT THIS TIME. PLANNING ON A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL QPF AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM SUGGEST 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE MIXED WITH TIME.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH...BEFORE LIFT/PRECIPITATION THREAT MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT PLANNED.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL STILL BE A GOOD BEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THE COLD FRONT...SO POPS WILL
BE LOWER MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...WENT MAINLY SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO FASTER
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR AROUND 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND 00Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. AS SNOW
INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS.

HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR IS AT KIND/HUF SO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. NOTE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIFR MAY
EXTEND PAST THE TIME INDICATED IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY SO KEPT IFR GOING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG SUNDAY BUT FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

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