Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271854
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
154 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The fluctuating pattern will continue across Central Indiana as
temperatures climb into the upper 60s by Tuesday then plummet back
into the 40s on Thursday. First, rain showers will be possible
across south/southeastern portions of the forecast area today
ahead of a weak wave. Focus then turns to a low pressure system
progged for Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to
produce strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday evening/night.
After the associated cold front passes through on Wednesday, temps
will fall closer to normal, and there will be rain/snow showers
at times on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Further out, dry
conditions will prevail for most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1025 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Radar mosaic at 10 am shows some weak echoes moving out of the
northern counties with more developing across the southern counties.
The bulk of any measurable rain today should be southeast of the
area but could see enough development for a hundredth or two across
the southeastern counties so continued to leave a low chance pop
there. Elsewhere across the area HRRR shows some isolated light
echoes and since it captured the sprinkles well this morning went
ahead and put isolated sprinkles across the area through around
midday. High temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 50s
and just made some minor adjustments up in the eastern counties
where the blend was only in the mid 40s. Even with the cloud cover
there are breaks that are allowing good warming.

Still looks like a lull in any precip in the late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 346 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances and severe threat with approaching low pressure system.

First, inserted mention for thunder starting tonight as warm
front approaches from the southwest. Will keep that threat in the
forecast throughout Tuesday morning and afternoon, but the best
threat will come on Tuesday evening and night as low level jet
increases to nearly 68 kts. SPC continues to have all of central
Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather with decent
instability and forcing. Daytime highs tomorrow will top off in
the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints in the 50s.

Additional forcing will be provided by the associated cold front
on Wednesday, so will continue to carry mention of thunder through
Wednesday morning, but severe threat should be over by then. All
thunderstorms should be out of the area by late Wednesday
afternoon.

Colder air will return for Wednesday night as temps dip back into
the low 30s. This was handled best by latest Superblend
initialization.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

Issued at 155 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

The deterministic models are in good agreement, and confidence is
high in the blended forecast, into Sunday. Dry weather should
predominate, but there will be some chances for both rain showers
and snow showers. If snow occurs, expect little or no accumulation.
Potential temperature errors are mainly 2 degrees or less.

The forecast becomes much more uncertain beginning Sunday night as
the GFS and European models handle an approaching system very
differently. Temperature forecasts may be off by 5 degrees or more
and POPs off by 20 percent or more. Snow is not expected in any
case.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 271800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1141 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Mainly VFR through the day today with clouds increasing from the
south as a warm front approaches. Might see a couple of hours of
MVFR at KBMG right around issuance time so included a tempo
there but then ceilings should rise. Overnight a warm front will
approach and move through, and this will bring some chances for
thunderstorms with it as well as lower ceilings--initially MVFR
then dropping to IFR. With uncertainty about the extent of
thunder, included VCTS with showers rather than TSRA. Winds
through the day will be 5-10 kts mainly SEly and then shift to
southerly after the warm front passes. For the extended portion
of the KIND taf, expect to see wind gusts develop Tuesday
afternoon around 20-25 kts out of the S to SSW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP



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