Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN OHIO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
HIGH WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER AS IT MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.   IN THE LONG TERM A COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

FORECAST LOOKS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP.

ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO RAISE THE HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
AS THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THEY MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS THIS WEEK AS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INDIANA AND ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE LATER TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES AS THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND QUITE A
BIT OF SUN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS.  MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY
TONIGHT AND WENT WITH LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES. MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL END AS COLDER DRIER AIR
ARRIVES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND SOME AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACT AND IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP COULD END UP ALL LIQUID.

MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO
THIRD OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AND ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW SATURDAY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MOST PERIODS A MOS
BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND ALSO ON A
LATE WEEK SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING A COLDER BUT DRY PATTERN TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TO END THE OLD THE OLD YEAR AND START THE NEW ONE.
THEY ALSO AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME TIMING
AND STRENGTH ISSUES REGARDING THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH BRING DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
REFLECTS IN THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ALONG WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND.

WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR NOW AS VARYING
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT COME CLOSE TO ADDING ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE 7 DAYS OUT BETWEEN THE WARMER EURO
AND COLDER GFS.

REGIONAL BLEND APPEARS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY
WITH HIGHS THEN ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING BUT CLOUDS
INCREASING...MID AND UPPER 30S LOOK OK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z
SATURDAY. THEN...EXPECT WIDESPREAD...MOSTLY MVFR...RAIN TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 9 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN 7
TO 9 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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