Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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