Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 280809
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal
temperatures over the area for the next few days. Small chances
for thunderstorms will continue off and on until Wednesday night
when surface high pressure builds in behind a cold front that will
bring cooler and drier air with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Patchy fog will occur across the area through an hour or so after
daybreak with a decent temperature inversion and dew point
depressions of 0 to 2 degrees. Shortly after daybreak sunshine
should mix out any fog. Then focus turns to chances for
thunderstorms.

With upper ridging over the area and no forcing mechanism, looks
like the only thunderstorms today would be those diurnally
generated with the hot humid air mass. Best chances will be this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Not much available for
forcing through the period under increasing influence of the upper
ridge. Diurnal influence will wane tonight so kept a slight chance
going initially but dropped to dry late tonight. Again went with
low chances on Monday, with a dry pop in the northeast as surface high
pressure builds from the north. Expect dry weather Monday night
and for most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night under the
subsidence of the surface high. Could see slight chance in the
west Tuesday and late Tuesday night where subsidence will be the
weakest. Temperatures should continue to run warmer than normal
with the upper ridge producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions and the front stalled north of the area keeping humid
conditions in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Tired of the sweat? The Heat? The Humidity? If so, this section
of the forecast is for you.

ECWMF suggests a weak short wave along with a cool front will
sweep across the Great Lakes and Central Indiana on
Wednesday....and this will be the last chance for precip until at
least Saturday. Minimal forcing appears available as this short
wave passes...however there is a good change of air mass as
Canadian high pressure will build across the Ohio valley through
the end of the work week. Models show amplifying high pressure
aloft along with high pressure in place at the surface and
excellent mid level drying and subsidence. Dew points amid the NE
surface flow fall in to the 50 and low 60s...resulting in less
humid temps. Overall...have kept low chances provided by
superblend on Wednesday as the weak front passes. Then have
trended toward a dry forecast through Saturday with Strong High
pressure in place. High temperatures look to fall at or below
normals by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 280600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Crossover temperatures will likely be reached overnight, so expecting
areas of IFR/patchy LIFR conditions in fog through about 281300Z-281400Z.
Lower confidence in IFR at the KIND terminal tonight due to the urban heat
island.

Rather low convective temperatures coupled with an unstable air mass
suggests potential for widely scattered CB`s to develop in the vicinity of
the terminals after about 281800Z. CB bases around 030.

Surface winds at or below 6 kts through midday Sunday.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JAS



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