Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CALM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE END OF THE WEEK...
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

0145Z UPDATE...FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURRED
IN THE LAST 24 HR PERIOD. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE TO AREAS FROM
PATCHY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. DEBATING ABOUT WHETHER
TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DEVELOPS EARLY TONIGHT. FOG ALREADY
COVERED IN HWO...FORECAST...AND GRAPHICAL WX STORY AT THE MOMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS CURRENTLY DRY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE. STILL EXPECT CLEARING
TONIGHT THOUGH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST BY THE COOLER GFS. SOME OF THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S...THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
THURSDAY WHEN SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT IN REGARD
TO THURSDAY/S FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE NAM AND EURO ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THIS DISCREPANCY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POP-UP DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARD TO POPS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WILL COVER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...BUT THESE WILL MOST LIKELY BE INCREASED TO LIKELY IN FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

TEMPS...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEAK WARMING TREND...SO WENT
WITH ALLBLEND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS IN ON SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTH AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING.

THEN...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN DRY BUT RATHER COOL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTING WE WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO
THE 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS AROUND 80 FAR SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FINALLY...EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND MODEST
RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGESTING LOW POPS
ACROSS OUR WEST IS A GOOD STARTING POINT. BY MIDWEEK...SHOULD SEE
THE ACTIVITY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BARING A
BIG CHANGE IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

VISIBILITIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AT THE SITES UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
CALM WINDS. EXPECT DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IF THEY
HAVEN/T ALREADY AT KBMG...WITH LIFR TO POSSIBLY LOWER AT KHUF AND
IFR AT KLAF AND KIND WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. AFTER AROUND 13-14Z
SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT AND VFR BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING. CALM WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INCREASING TO 3-8 KTS OUT OF GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
AROUND 13-14Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

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