Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the eastern
third of the U.S. through tomorrow, resulting in dry, sunny
conditions. However, the pattern will become more active starting
Wednesday night when the high pressure shifts east and a frontal
system enters the Great Lakes Region. Showers and thunderstorms
will then be persistent into the weekend, except for a break from
Saturday night through Sunday morning. They will quickly resume
again though on Sunday afternoon with higher chances on Monday as
several disturbances pass through the region.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail today as high pressure
strengthens over the area. Currently, there is an area of low
pressure situated over the eastern Great Lakes Region, but strong
subsidence will stream into central Indiana as a large ridge of
high pressure builds over the Central Plains. Despite the ample
sunshine though, northwest flow will keep temperatures below
normal with highs only in the mid to upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The aforementioned high pressure will keep conditions dry through
Wednesday across central Indiana. Decent radiational cooling
tonight with clear skies will cause quite a drop in overnight lows
though with readings in the mid 50s. However, temperatures will
start to rebound a bit tomorrow as winds become southerly and
ample sunshine continues. Look for Wednesday`s highs to top off
closer to normal in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night, the pattern will become more active as a frontal
system enters the Great Lakes Region. As a result, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area with chances across the entire forecast
area by Thursday morning. Chances will continue to increase
through Thursday night as the associated frontal boundary
approaches and forcing improves along and ahead of it.

Temperatures, a weak warming trend will commence during the short
term period as the forecast area falls into the warm sector of the
frontal system. Highs will jump above normal by Thursday with mid
to upper 80s. Meanwhile, overnight lows for Wednesday and Thursday
nights will be warm with readings in the upper 60s/low 70s.


.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The long term starts with a frontal system and an upper wave
moving through the forecast area, keeping chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area until after the front passes and the
wave moves out. By Saturday night a surface ridge moves across the
area bringing dry weather in for a bit. The next system begins
approaching Sunday afternoon/night and keeps thunderstorm chances
in through Tuesday. Model variability during that time keeps
confidence lower average and kept chances pops going through that
time but eliminated likelies. Confidence is moderately high that
thunderstorms will occur sometime between Saturday and Tuesday but
confidence for any particular 12 hour period is low.

Temperatures should run near normal for this time of year, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 27/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF
period. High pressure will begin to weaken tonight as the next
system approaches the Central Plains. Clouds will be limited to
some diurnal Cu during the day Tuesday which will dissipate around
0Z. Winds will remain light out of the north through tonight
before shifting to the south and strengthening after 15Z tomorrow
in response to the incoming system.




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