Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU
WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS
MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

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