Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 030831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
331 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016


The Long Term section has been updated below.


Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

An upper level system will bring some precipitation to the area late
tonight into Sunday. Another system will bring rain early next
week. Much colder air will move in mid week and could bring some
snow with it. Below normal temperatures will then continue into next


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Stubborn low level clouds continue across the forecast area and
across much of the region early this morning. Models are trying to
scatter the clouds quickly this morning, with some of the short term
models even clearing things out now, which isn`t happening.

Model soundings show an inversion developing again this afternoon,
so if the clouds do not scatter out, they will be trapped again.

Thus am pessimistic at the odds of substantial clearing occurring
today. Besides, mid and high level clouds will start to increase
ahead of the next system.

Will thus go with a pessimistic forecast and keep skies mostly
cloudy today.

With the expected cloud cover, went closer to or even below the
cooler of the MOS numbers for highs.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted, unless noted below.

This evening should remain dry with little or no forcing
around. Isentropic lift then increases overnight.

It should take a while for the atmosphere to moisten up
enough for precipitation to get to the ground. Went slight
chance to low chance category PoPs by late tonight across the
southwest forecast area.

Forcing increases during the day Sunday as the upper trough moves
in. An inverted surface trough will be to our south with another
surface trough off to the northwest. An upper jet will be overhead.

Feel that there will be enough forcing and moisture to at measure
at least some light QPF across much of the area on Sunday, so went
likely PoPs many areas by Sunday afternoon. This is a little higher
than the initialization, but the outlier drier NAM is bringing the
initialization down.

Forcing will quickly exit the area, so only went slight chance PoPs
far east Sunday evening. Monday will then be dry across all but the
far south, then precipitation chances increase south to north Monday
night with the approach of the next system.

As for precipitation type, temperatures will be cold enough for snow
late tonight, then readings will warm enough for mainly a mix of
rain and snow Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon should see rain all
areas, but it may be borderline across the far northwest based on
forecast soundings. For Monday into Monday night, temperatures will
be warm enough for just rain for most of the period (a brief mix of
rain and snow is possible north early).

Any snow accumulation late tonight into Sunday morning will be less
than an inch, and mainly confined to the far west and northwest.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Rainmaker will be moving through the Ohio Valley early in the long
term period, with conditions turning sharply cooler later in the
week as a slug of cold air drops into the region. Models continue to
differ in their handling of Wednesday night system but are coming a
bit closer together on timing. Euro produces are more robust surface
reflection in contrast to the GFS near complete lack of identifiable
surface features. This impacts the blended initialization, and may
be biasing precipitation amounts low if the Euro verifies - in which
case a light but potentially low end advisory level snowfall may be
possible - particularly considering the relative lack of wintry
precipitation thus far this season. Made adjustments to blended
initialization Wednesday night to better capture this potential.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 030900Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

No significant changes needed to the KIND TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

It is still a close call as to whether a persistent stratocu deck
will be MVFR or VFR through 18z or so. The GFS LAMP hinted at tempo
MVFR through the overnight and early afternoon. However, decided to
go with all VFR based on latest trends. Will amend as needed. After
18z, confidence is much higher in VFR.

Winds will be west and northwest 4 knots or less through the TAF





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