Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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222
FXUS63 KIND 261928
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

High pressure along the east coast will keep us under a warm southerly flow
through the middle of next week.  An upper trough over the the western U.S.
will move to the central plains by Saturday and across the Great Lakes
Sunday.  This in combination with a humid air mass will keep us with low
daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and another
system will bring another round of thunderstorms around the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The line of strong thunderstorms which had brought gusty winds and small hail
was over extreme eastern Indiana and Kentucky and should exit our region
in the next few hours.   The rapid refresh model indicates little if any
re-development through 08Z and with the air mass somewhat stable-lized by
the earlier convection will keep everything dry until late tonight.

After that will bring 30 Percent POPS into western sections by 20 percent POPS
elsewhere towards morning as a weak upper disturbance moves into the middle
Mississippi valley by Friday.

Models and MOS data indicates low temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
which is what they were last night and seems reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Models move a series of weak waves from the plains to the western great lakes
with the strongest one moving into the great lakes by Sunday.
Given a humid airmass and some uncertainty in timing will mention 30
percent POPS west Friday and 20 percent elsewhere and 20 percent POPS all
areas Friday night.

There could be slightly better rain chances over the weekend mainly
Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  However confidence of exact timing is
low as models show better chances west of us Saturday and more to our
east Sunday.   For now will lean towards 40 percent POPS most areas
Saturday and Sunday afternoon and continue 20 percent POPS most areas
Friday and Saturday night.

Highs will be in the middle 80s Friday and lower to middle 80s over
the weekend with a little more clouds.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
both Friday and Saturday night.  Raised temperatures slightly FRiday

Raised temperatures slightly Friday as there should be more sun then.
Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS blend of temperatures most other periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Guidance suggests a pattern becoming a bit more progressive next
week.

There is some indication that a break in the convective activity may
greet the start of the new week as ridging builds across the area.
Will go dry late Sunday night through Tuesday. Would not be shocked
to see an isolated storm pop up in the heat of the afternoon but
cannot justify pops at this point.

Temperatures look to remain seasonably warm with highs in the low
80s and lows in the 60s. Blended initialization handled things well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR likely through the period.

Line of storms is pulling away from the terminals at this time,
although light rain with an occasional rumble of thunder is expected
for the next hour or so at IND/BMG. High resolution models suggest
this will be the only significant convective activity through at
least the evening hours across the area.

Winds will generally be 10-12KT or less this afternoon, becoming
more southerly with time. Winds will drop to below 10KT overnight.

Cannot rule out light fog late tonight but will leave this to later
packages at this time as this will depend on the amount of mid and
high cloud streaming into the area late tonight ahead of the next
disturbance.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD



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