Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

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