Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211501
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1101 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will be the
rule through much of the forecast period. After a small chance for
an isolated shower this morning, the next chance for rain will not
arrive until Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Removed POPs for the morning based on latest satellite and radar
trends. Ridging will remain in place today with much of central
Indiana seeing temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds
will generally be out of the south at 5-10 kts with highest winds
during the afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected through
the short term under the influence of a strengthening upper ridge.
High confidence forecast with good model agreement. High
temperatures will run in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...

Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

ECMWF continues to be quite consistent from run to run and
confidence remains high for a dry forecast through Tuesday.

ECMWF suggests strong ridging in place across the eastern half of
the United States through Tuesday. This results in strong
subsidence and surface High pressure in place across the eastern
Great Lakes extending into Indiana. THE warm and humid air mass
that is over Indiana and the region will remain in place under the
ridge...keeping temperatures above seasonal normals.

ECMWF suggests the ridge sliding eats on Wednesday as a cold front
begins to drop out of the plains states. Given the warm and humid
air mass that will be in place and the change of air mass
expected...have included pops on Wednesday for now along with a
cool down on temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Overall forecasts in excellent shape this morning. Just minor
adjustments based on current obs needed at this time.

12Z discussion follows.

Patchy fog is occurring at KHUF and KBMG this morning, and expect
this to continue with visibilities bouncing from VFR to IFR or
even worse briefly until after sunrise. KLAF and KIND could
briefly drop to MVFR but should improve from there as well. All
sites should be VFR by 14z and should remain that way through the
period. Expect some diurnal cu late this morning into the
afternoon but should be VFR with bases around 4 kft. Winds should
be less than 10 kts through the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...White
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...CP/Ryan



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