Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 262246
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A front will meander across the area during the weekend keeping
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Another
frontal system will bring more rain chances then through mid week.
Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, then
return to closer to average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Additional convection is developing across the area now near the old
front that is across the central forecast area at the moment. There
also remains an old outflow boundary across the southeastern forecast
area which may bring more convection. Will go with chance pops
across a good part of the area for the remainder of the afternoon.

There could be a few strong to severe storms this afternoon given
the instability and some shear.

During the night expect more convection to fire west of the area as
more energy rides around an upper ridge and 850mb winds increase.
Some of this convection may get into the area.

Will end up going chance pops across the western 2/3 of the area
with lower pops east, further away from the forcing.

Stayed close to a model blend for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday/
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Focus remains on chances for rain through the period. Models are
pretty close overall with the big picture but differ on when/where
better chances for rainfall will occur. Thus not a lot of confidence
in pops through the period with no clear focus for forcing of
convection through most of the period.

The old frontal boundary will remain in the area into the weekend.
Area will generally remain on the periphery of an upper high, which
will allow various upper disturbances to rotate around the high into
the area. Since timing of these features is uncertain, uncertainty
in timing of pops is higher.

Higher pops will exist on Saturday as our area will also have some
additional upper support from the right rear entrance region to an
upper jet to our north. Thus will go higher end chance category pops
Saturday into Saturday evening.

Otherwise with no clear focus for convection generally went slight
chance pops at night and low chance pops during the day through
Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will persist through the short term with no
significant change in airmass expected. A model blend of
temperatures reflects this well.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Models suggest the area will be on the periphery of weak upper level
ridging, particularly early in the week. Thunderstorm chances will
be necessary much of the long term, but cannot justify more than 20
to 30 pops as convection will be either diurnally driven or subject
to subtle disturbances that models simply cannot handle on such time
scales.

Blended initialization was reasonable and required only minor
changes.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 270000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Scattered convection continues across the area as an upper
vorticity lobe lifts north through central Indiana, combined
with a diffuse frontal zone and unstable air mass. Convection
has been mainly impacting the KIND terminal. Expecting
scattered convection to linger in the vicinity of the terminals
through about 270200Z-270400Z as the vorticity lobe continues
to drift off to the north. Brief IFR visibility restrictions
and gusty shifting winds expected in and near heavier convection.
CB bases around 035.

Can`t rule out widely scattered convection later tonight with
the front in the area, but 850mb flow looks to be a little weaker
tonight, so don`t think the convective threat later is very high.
Model guidance suggest another impulse may move into the area
after 271200Z.

Given the expected cloud cover tonight, think the potential for
widespread or prolonged IFR visibility restrictions in fog is low.
Surface winds outside of convective areas less than 7 kts tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS



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