Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...AND THESE
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING AS IS.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. WILL DROP THE LOWS A LITTLE MORE IN THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET...DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THEY END UP
BEING.

THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME CLOUDS WILL STILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
EXITING TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL BLEND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE
WITH MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE CUT OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
WITH SPRINKLES MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY KICKING IN
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS FOR THE UPDATE.

NO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CU BUT WOULD NOT
RULE OUT MVFR. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AFTER 02Z AT
LAF...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

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