Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The mild temperatures will continue today. The weather will become
unsettled once again as a strong system moves over the southern
states and Tennessee Valley before moving up the eastern seaboard
Monday night into Tuesday night. More seasonable conditions will
return late next week including a chance for snow showers by
Wednesday night.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Main concern today will be pops and temperatures as a strong low
pressure system, currently seen on water vapor imagery over
southeastern Oklahoma, moves east across the Tennessee Valley and
Mid South.

The HRRR was showing convection, currently over northern sections of
Alabama and Mississippi, pivot north and northwest toward the Ohio
valley late this morning and afternoon. Models were once again
showing precipitable water values near an inch over our southern
counties this afternoon. So, went likely pops there with slightly
lower pops north. That said, a frontal boundary across our
northwestern counties will be another lifting mechanism. One concern
with coverage will be the widespread convection to our south and
what effect that has on inflow across the Ohio Valley. The HRRR
suggests it may help reduce coverage over central Indiana somewhat.

Based on SPC Day1 Outlook, left thunder out but would not be shocked
to see a lightning strike or two over the area.

Could see some morning fog, mainly over our northwestern counties as
there was widespread dense fog just to the north of our forecast
area borders with LOT and IWX.

Northeast winds and thicker cloud cover will limit temperatures a
bit compared to yesterday but not before highs reach the mid 50s to
around 60 per blend.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The unsettled weather will continue into the short term as thestrong
southern storm system moves over the Tennesee Valley andAppalachians
tonight and Monday and up the eastern seaboard thereafter. Models in
good agreement that the showers will gradually endfrom southwest to
northeast Monday night as the storm moves up thecoast taking the
moisture with it. Stuck with regional blendregarding pops. Should
see some breaks in the clouds by lateTuesday.

Temperatures will not be as warm, but will still be well abovenormal
with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 and lows in the mid30s to
lower 40s.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

An upper trough will move into the area from the west during the
long term. This will keep small chances for precipitation in the
forecast off and on as upper waves eject out of the trough and
provide lift, mainly across northern parts of the forecast area.
Tuesday night an initial cold front will move through, followed by
a secondary cold front Wednesday night, and this second front will
usher in a return to normal temperatures for this time of year.
Small chances for snow or a mix of rain and snow will move in with
the passage of the cold front and remain through the rest of the
extended. Fairly good model agreement on the main upper pattern, so
confidence on temperature trends is high, while confidence on timing
of precip chances is low.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 220900Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Kept the visibility at P6SM through 13z.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1155 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Flying conditions will lower to MVFR overnight and Sunday morning
with some improvement Sunday afternoon over north and central
sections and then IFR Sunday night.

Area of showers and a few storms over the northern portions of
central Indiana will move on to the northeast.  hen expect
only isolated light showers rest of tonight and Sunday morning.

Areas of fog will develop overnight especially north with IFR
visibilities at KLAF and mostly MVFR conditions elsewhere.

Low pressure over the southern plains will move to the
middle Mississippi valley by morning and across Kentucky Sunday
Showers will spread into central Indiana with isolated storms
south.  Showers will end Sunday evening...but low stratus and fog
will be the rule.

Winds will be light overnight becoming northeast 5 to 8 knots
Sunday and up to 10 knots late Sunday.  Winds Sunday evening will
be north to northwest 10 to 15 knots.





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