Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 022337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA
FRIDAY AND KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH SLOWLY SPINNING FURTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP DURING
THE TONIGHT PERIOD BUT THINK THE EASTERN CLOUDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SLOW IN THIS PROCESS. THUS WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE EAST CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A CONSENSUS
BUT BUMPED NUMBERS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE
SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD START THE DAY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT THE
EASTERN AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE FRONT COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS AROUND IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER STILL LOOKING
AT UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING
THAT TIME. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WEAK SURFACE FORCING TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH OF ANYTHING BEYOND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSEST
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING HELP AT NIGHT WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY...AND
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TO MID CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHOWS A WAVE IMPINGING ON IT TO
AID WITH THE FRONTAL AND DIURNAL FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND
LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AND RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL SUGGEST PLAINS UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND A CANADIAN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SEVERAL SURFACE
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...REGIONAL BLEND THAT HAS POPS FOR MOST PERIODS LOOKS GOOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SEASONAL REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALSO LOOK REASONABLE
BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION /030000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CLOUD
SHIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL COME CLOSE TO KIND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
IMPACT. DECKS WITH THIS SHIELD ARE STILL IN VFR. DIURNAL CU AT ALL
SITES WILL BURN OFF COMPLETELY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA FOR ALL SITES.

AFTER LOOKING AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...KLAF...KHUF...AND KBMG HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT CREATING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN AT THESE SITES AROUND 08Z. KHUF AND KBMG MAY
SEE FOG CREEPING IN CLOSER TO 07Z.

CU IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MMB/JAS

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