Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
414 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure centered over Western Iowa will track to northern
Illinois by this evening...across northern Indiana tonight and
into the eastern great lakes Thursday.  Weak high pressure will
build our way Thursday night.  It will be warmer Friday into the
weekend with an increasing southerly flow across Indiana.

In the long term period...temperatures will be warmer than normal
with a strong upper ridge over the lower Mississippi valley.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers to northern portions
of central Indiana Saturday night and Sunday.


.NEAR TERM.../Today and Tonight/
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Area of light showers were spreading east across central Indiana
mainly north of interstate 70.   These were being caused by strong
warm advection ahead of a warm front.  Expect these showers to
move east of our region by mid morning.   Models indicate a warm
front will move northeast across central Indiana today as low
pressure over western Iowa moves to northern Illinois by this

Once the first area of showers exit our should be dry
most areas until mid or late afternoon across northwest sections as
models have trended a little slower in spreading precipitation
southeast into our region this afternoon.  Will mention chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northwest half of
our region by late afternoon.

Rain chances increase tonight as a cold front pushes southeast
across our region.  Went with likely POPS over the north half and
high chance POPS in the south.  Showers will probably end over
western sections late tonight after cold front moves through.

Went close to warmer MET temperatures today with some sun midday and
good warm advection for tonight stayed close to a MOS blend on
tempertures.    Anyways highs will be from around 60 north to lower
70s south and lows tonight from the upper 40s northwest to the
middle and upper 50s southeast.


.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Friday Night/
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Will mention a slight chance of showers far east early Thursday.
Otherwise it will be dry Thursday through Friday night.  A cold
front will be across Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana early
Thursday and this will move on to the east as high pressure over
Iowa builds to Indiana by Thursday night.  Models indicate weak cold
advection and lots of clouds Thursday with some clearing Thursday
afternoon.   Thursday night will be mostly clear southwest and
partly cloudy northeast and Friday will be mostly clear.

Stayed close to a MOS blend Thursday and Thursday night.  Friday
will be warmer as high pressure over Indiana moves on to the east
allowing an increasing southerly flow on Friday.  Went slightly
above MOS temperatures over western sections with lots of sun and
good warm advection.  The southerly flow will increase Friday night
and temperatures will become quite mild by then.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Ensembles in fairly good agreement with respect to the upcoming
weather pattern in the extended. Main feature will be a short wave
trough that is expected to move across the Great Lakes in the Friday
night to Sunday time frame. Today`s ensembles are more bullish on
the precipitation threat as the tail end of this short wave passes
over the local area Saturday night and Sunday. For now, will bring
in some small chance Pops to mainly the northern zones during these
times, and keep the rest of the area dry. If model trends continue
in this direction, PoPs will likely be extended farther south.

Another, potentially stronger, upper trough may lift northeast out
of the Plains early next week. At this time, it appears main
precipitation threat will be after this period, so will keep the
rest of the extended dry for now.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 260900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Patches of light rain currently across northwest and west central
Indiana may occasionally affect the KIND terminal through about
261200Z. Appears precipitation will be light enough as to not
restrict visibility.

Will also bump up the wind speed forecast to about 8-10 kts for the
rest of the early morning hours based on current conditions.

Previous discussion follows.

Rain over central Illinois as of 1130 pm EDT could impact KHUF and
KLAF starting after 7z and could hang around as long as 11z before
lifting north and east of the sites. At this time models show rain
with this reaching KHUF for a quick bit and staying at KLAF longer
and HRRR and RAP both agree with this. May include a tempo at KLAF
for a couple hours of MVFR visibilities.

VFR through the day Wednesday with deteriorating conditions starting
sometime after 21z Wednesday as a cold front approaches and rain
begins to overspread the area.

Light easterly winds will veer to southeasterly by midmorning and
then southerly during the evening, and increase in speed to around 8-
12 kts with gusts around 20 kts at times during the afternoon and
evening at KIND and KLAF.




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