Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191716
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1216 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry weather can be expected through the work week as high pressure
dominates the weather for much of the period. A low pressure system
will bring rain chances to parts of the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Today/
Issued at 1015 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Satellite loop shows cloud deck over central Indiana extends back
into central Illinois at 10 am. As a result, continued the trend of
slowing the clearing and scattering of cloud cover into later in the
afternoon. Otherwise going forecast is on track, and these sky cover
changes were the only appreciable adjustment.

Previous discussion follows...

Early this morning, stratocumulus were across central Indiana. The
clouds, albeit with a few large breaks, extended back into
Wisconsin. These clouds will be the forecast issue today. As usual,
many models are clearing out skies quickly, which is typical.

However, the Hi Res Rapid Refresh and the short range ensembles show
the clouds sticking around into at least early afternoon. Will trend
toward these models and go mostly cloudy through the morning for
most areas, then decreasing clouds during the afternoon.

There will still be some wind gusts across the area today with the
still relatively tight pressure gradient, but these should remain
around 20kt.

With the clouds and cold advection, temperatures will remain well
below average and only in the 30s. The model blend reflects this
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday night/
Issued at 231 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The short term will remain quiet. High pressure will remain in
control through Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday,
but moisture is lacking. Thus do not expect any precipitation with
it.

Tuesday will be breezy with wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the area
as the cold front passes.

The model blend looks good for temperatures given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A large ridge of high pressure over the western two-thirds of the
nation will result in dry conditions for most of the extended
period. Temperatures will be below normal, but there will be a
very weak warming trend throughout the period as winds back to the
southwest. It won`t be until late in the long term period when
there are some low chances for rain chances across the northern
counties as a system tracks through the Great Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 191800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1210 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

MVFR cloud deck at the sites will slowly erode and ceilings rise
from southwest to northeast over the next several hours. Should
see VFR conditions reach KHUF within the next hour or two, KBMG an
hour or two after that, and KIND and KLAF thereafter. By 21-23z
all TAF sites should be VFR and remain that way through the rest
of the period. Winds are currently out of the WNW around 8 to 12
kts with sporadic gusts of 16 to 20 kts, and this should continue
through the afternoon before they slacken this evening. Should see
winds of 5 to 10 kts through the overnight, then see them shift to
SWly around 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20 kts Monday afternoon. No
visibility restrictions are anticipated with dry conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP



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