Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RECENT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION RUN LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE 4F AND FALLING AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PROVIDING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THUS NO REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE.

AS MIXING RESUMES AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AND
SCT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL APPEAR TOO DRY FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...JP



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