Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250625
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
225 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Above normal to well above normal temperatures will continue into
mid-week, then much cooler conditions will arrive for late week into
the weekend. The cold front bringing the cold air will also bring a
low chance for rain on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Confidence is high that quiet weather will continue with high
pressure in control at the surface and an upper ridge aloft. Some
high clouds might sneak in from the south later tonight. Thus mostly
clear should cover it.

The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will continue to keep the weather quiet through much
of the short term. There will be a weak return flow of moisture into
the area Monday, so there should be more cumulus than today.
However, mostly sunny should still cover it for most locations.

There will be a little more clouds on Tuesday as the cold front
begins its approach to the area.

The front will move through early Wednesday, but the colder air will
lag behind the front. The arrival of the colder air could spark an
isolated shower Wednesday afternoon, but even that chance is
uncertain thanks to a lack of deep moisture and weak convergence
and forcing.

Went above the blend for Monday`s highs given what`s happened the
past few days. The blend looks reasonable for highs Tuesday with
more clouds around and for Wednesday with the colder air moving in
later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Cooler and more active weather expected during this period. ECMWf
suggests a pattern change aloft as compared to the past week. By
Thursday...Cooler air is expected to arrive across Central Indiana
as High pressure over the western Great Lakes sags southward.
Aloft...a quick more zonal flow pushes Wednesday
s cold front farther east along with the rest of the hot air that
have been over Indiana for much of the  past week. Thus dry and
cooler will work for Thursday.

The ECMWF Suggests a quick moving cold front and weak low pressure
system moving through the great lakes on Friday. However the gulf
fails to open ahead of this system and Pacific moisture is
limited. Thus the forecast builder blend has gone dry...which
seems reasonable as confidence for precip remains low.

Stronger and cool high pressure over the upper midwest is then
expected to build across Indiana on Saturday and
Sunday...providing more dry and cool weather to start October. The
next best chance for rain looks like Monday as the ECMWF shows a
negatively tilted upper trough pushing toward Indiana from the
plains states...but again...moisture may be limited.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 250600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1139 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

May see an hour or two of MVFR visibilities near daybreak at the
outlying sites, but otherwise VFR expected. Winds should be light
and variable overnight. May see some cu during the afternoon hours
but they shouldn`t impact the flight category.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...CP


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