Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241029
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
629 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A series of upper lows and surface low pressure systems will keep
frequent chances for rain in the forecast into next week.
Temperatures will be near to above average through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Upper ridging will help keep the area dry today, but an increase in
clouds is expected with moisture and some isentropic lift in a warm
advection pattern.

With the cloud cover increasing, didn`t go as warm as the model
blend for high temperatures. However, did go warmer than some of the
MOS numbers. The result is highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

Some of the stronger winds not too far off the surface may mix down
at times today, providing wind gusts around 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Upper ridging will move out of the area tonight as an upper low
begins to move closer to the forecast area. While there will be a
decent flow of moisture into the area, it looks like better forcing
will hold off until Saturday. Will keep the evening dry, then allow
for some increase in PoPs overnight. Far western areas will see
likely PoPs very late tonight, with chance category or lower PoPs
elsewhere.

During the day Saturday as the upper low gets closer upper overall
forcing will increase. Moisture will continue to move in on a good
southerly flow. Will go likely or higher PoPs most areas by late
afternoon.

The upper low will keep providing good forcing across much of the
area Saturday night and Sunday morning, requiring likely category or
higher PoPs. Chances will begin to diminish later Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night as the low moves off to the northeast.

Temperatures will remain mild with upper flow generally remaining
south to southwest. Stayed with the model blend`s temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...

Issued at 158 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

ECMWF suggests lingering rain showers will remain in the area on
Monday as another upper level short wave is poised to push through
the Ohio Valley. A surface low will accompany this system on
Monday...pushing across Indiana. Thus have included pops
continuing on Monday.

Dry weather should return on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ECMWF
suggests High pressure building at the surface with Ridging in
place aloft. An Intrusion of cold air seems unlikely as the
ridging builds within the southwest flow aloft. THus will trend
temps at or above seasonal normals.

By Thursday...return flow of warmer and perhaps more humid air
begins as surface high pressure is east of Indiana. Forecast
Builder blend appears to overplay pops here given the uncertainty
and the apparent lack of dynamics. Thus have trended to a dry
forecast on Thursday where possible.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 241200Z TAFs/...

Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

VFR Conditions across the TAF sites will deteriorate to MVFR at
times during this taf period.

TAF sites will remain in the warm sector today as low pressure
remains over the Central Plains. Time heights show lower level
moisture arriving this afternoon as warm and moist air is expected
to continue to arrive on southerly winds.

As warm frontal layer overtakes the area Friday, surface winds
will become increasingly gusty, especially when lower decks rise
and break for the afternoon hours.

Best forcing begins to arrive after 00Z Sat as the models suggest
the strong system to the west ejects some upper support toward the
Ohio Valley. Confidence in this feature remains rather low.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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