Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 200952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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