Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040442
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 040238
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1241 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AND CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO JUST A FEW OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WEAK SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS OHIO. DURING THIS PROGRESSION...SOME
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SHEARED INTO EASTERN
INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT JUST SHOW LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO FORCING AVAILABLE.

TEMPS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL
TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH MAY ALSO
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE ALOFT A STRONG RIDGE APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...STEERING ANY SHORT WAVES
WELL NORTH OF INDIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GREATER LAKES AND
ONTARIO. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS LOOK UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATIVE OF THE
HIGH DEW POINTS...AND LITTLE TO NO LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EACH
DAY ALSO SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY WITH DECENT
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG ALSO. THUS DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST A LOW POP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE THE LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
DEW POINTS EACH NIGHT WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
FORMATION. WILL INCLUDE PATCH FOG EACH NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...WILL
TREND TOWARD EXPECTED PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
WEST OR NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN
AN END TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP SUPERBLEND POPS PRETTY MUCH
INTACT...WHICH MEANS CHANCES FOR RAIN IN SOME PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL SEE HOT TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS BY
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PERSISTENCE THE BEST BET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
THUS...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE MVFR AND TEMPO IFR FOG AT BMG AND HUF
OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE AT BMG WAS ALREADY APPROACHING ITS DEW
POINT LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL START THEM OFF WITH FOG FROM
ISSUANCE TIME AND THROUGH 13Z. HUF MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AFTER 06Z. LAF AND IND COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR LIKE LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY VFR CU AROUND TONIGHT.

CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGUEST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AFTER 15Z. WOULD
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT IND OR LAF AFTER
18Z AS AN UPPER WAVE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY TAF.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON 6 TO 10 KNOTS AND VERY LIGHT
TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TDUD/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/CP



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