Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291927
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MCV OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP IT
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
SHEAR...COULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST WEST OF A CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS LINE AT 12Z.

SO...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTHEAST.

12Z MOS TEMPERATURE VERY CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD WITH CURRENT DEW
POINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THUS FAR NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
REPORTED WITH THESE...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP. WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST AT THIS POINT
AND NO IMPETUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE WITH
VCTS FOR THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDER IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR
SITE...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THINK DROPPING ANY THUNDER MENTION IS PREMATURE. COULD
INTRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SHIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING AND
THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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