Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 222232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
630 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry conditions will continue across central Indiana into early next
week, then a low pressure system will bring rain chances to the area
mid week. After a warm day Sunday, seasonable temperatures can be


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cumulus field will continue to shift east of the area this afternoon
as cold air aloft gets pushed east. Most of the mid clouds
associated with the warm advection aloft look to remain north of the

Maybe some patches of mid or high cloud move across tonight as warm
advection continues, but overall a mostly clear night is in store.

Winds will stay up tonight as warm advection commences at the
surface. Thus expect warmer lows tonight, similar to guidance.


.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Strong warm advection on Sunday (with 850mb winds near 50kt) will
bring in above normal temperatures. Atmosphere will be quite dry
though, so do not much sky cover. Mixing will allow surface winds to
gusts to around 25 mph.

A cold front will move through Sunday night, but the lack of
moisture will prohibit any rain. High pressure then returns for the
remainder of the short term, keeping things dry.

Although the coolest air will remain northeast of the area, enough
cool air will move in for Monday and Tuesday to keep temperatures
near or slightly below average.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...

Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

ECMWF suggests a departing ridging exiting the area on Tuesday
night and Wednesday. A warm front associated with low pressure
over the plains states is then expected to push toward Central
Indiana On Wednesday before passing across the state on Wednesday
night. As this feature passes...pops will need to be included as a
strong trough passes Mississippi Valley.

The upper trough is expected to pass through Indiana On Thursday
along with a low pressure system passing to the north of Indiana.
This will allow a cold front to push across the state on thursday
and Thursday...and again...PoPs will need to be included.

Dry weather is then expected to return by Friday and Saturday as
ridging and high pressure over the Central Plains builds eastward
across the Ohio valley.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230000z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period with strong
support from the SREF and GFS LAMP. Should only see passing cirrus,
and dry near surface will discourage fog.

Southwest winds 5 knots or less tonight will increase to near 15
knots with gusts to around 20 knots after 17z Sunday at IND and
LAF. Winds Sunday afternoon will be slightly less at BMG and HUF.




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