Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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511
FXUS63 KIND 272034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF INDIANA ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LESSER CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN LINGERING NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRY WEATHER THEN. MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NRN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY. RADAR SHOWS A
BAND OF PRECIP OVER SW CENTRAL INDIANA LIFTING NORTHWARD. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...PIVOTING NORTHEAST AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
NEBRASKA. COOL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MANY FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TONIGHT FOR RAIN. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING GOOD FORCING.
WATER VAPOR SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. 300K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
7 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THESE FEATURES PASS. AFTER
06Z...BEST FORCING APPEARS LOST TO THE EAST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS TO BE GONE. TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING DRYING IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS...WITH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z...BUT MEASURABLEPRECIP
SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORIAL POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...DECREASING TOWARD LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL FORCING
APPEARS AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS MODELS DEPICT A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS  TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE STATE...AGAIN PUSHING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. WITH MARGINAL FORCING IN PLACE THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO NEED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...ALBEIT LOW CHC POPS. FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THURSDAY/S HIGHS/ GIVEN THIS WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND
EXPECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW MAY ALLOW TO GUIDANCE TO BE EXCEEDED.
WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BLEND ON LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORCING APPEARS LOST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SINKS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD KENTUCKY AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDES COOL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. MEANWHILE
ALOFT...RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE RIDING
SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY A DRY COLUMN...WILL TREND TOWARD
A DRY FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS...LINGERING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. A BLEND
OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL WORK OK.

MODELS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...PUSHING EAST AND ONCE AGAIN
PULLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH TOWARD INDIANA FOR THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN BEGIN TRENDING TOWARD A
SATURATED COLUMN AS THESE SIMILAR FEATURES ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO
THE AREA. BEST TIMING AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THUS WILL TRY AND TREND POPS HIGHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MODELS ARE SIMILAR...BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT. THAT LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO JUST ACCEPTED
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE SPED THINGS UP...BUT ENSEMBLE QPF PLOTS
SHOW MANY MEMBERS HOLDING ONTO RAIN LONGER THAN THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS. THUS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...AND TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING...LEFT
POPS IN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

APPEARS THE STRONGEST LIFT IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE KIND TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THUNDER AT THE KIND TERMINAL MORE
TOWARDS 280000Z AS THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BEGIN ARRIVING AT THAT
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOULD SEE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT PER GFS LAMP. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LINGERING
INTO THE LATE MORNING. SO...MAY HAVE INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL TAKE A LAST MINUTE LOOK WITH REGARD
TO THAT. AFTER THAT...GFS LAMP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE TO IFR AT LEAST AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
PRECISE TIMING BUT GOOD ON TRENDS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDER TO BE A THREAT. LIGHTNING TRENDS
BACK THIS UP.

EXPECT A FRONT...JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EAST AND NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST AND WEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK/JAS



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