Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290625
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
225 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL U.S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.  FINALLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE COLDER WITH LOWS NEAR 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE MOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DRY.

MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.  BUT ON SUNDAY
WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ON TUESDAY TRENDED A LITTLE
WARMER AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MILD AND ACTIVE EXTENDED WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS THE THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTH FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FAST AND QUASI-ZONAL. THAT
IN IT ITSELF LENDS ITSELF TO TIMING DIFFICULTIES FOR THE MODELS WITH
THE VARIOUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. THE BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES
RELATE TO A LATE WEEKEND SURFACE WAVE AND ITS STRENGTH. AS FAR AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS GO...THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS WAS THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH. THE
00Z CANADIAN WAS MORE OF A COMPROMISE. MEANWHILE...THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS LEANED TOWARDS THEIR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW
ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS THE ECMWF. FINALLY...THE EWMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. SO...PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSER TO
THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES STILL YET TO BE
RESOLVED...WILL NOT MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE REGIONAL BLEND.

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER SURFACE PROGS FROM LATE LAST EVENING
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT STALL SOMEWHERE NEARBY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE
WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS
NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. IT WILL
ALSO SERVE AS AN INGREDIENT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO A GOOD BET PER ECMWF INSTABILITY
PROGS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE OVER FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST PART...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 050 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CEILINGS
AROUND 050 MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA TOWARDS 291800Z.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME 140-160 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER A BIT TOWARDS 170-190 DEGREES
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS PROBABLE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

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