Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
312 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated


Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A low pressure system is expected to move through the area over the
weekend. Another frontal system may affect the area during the early
parts of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Warm advection expected to develop today on the back side of
retreating surface high. Model data suggest lift today will
generally be weak and disorganized, and moisture looks to be limited
to the middle and upper levels of the air mass. As a result,
precipitation potential today looks slim, other than maybe some
sprinkles over the northwest zones later this afternoon. Will go
with a dry forecast today, although there should be quite a bit of
mid level cloud around.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
look good, so any adjustments will be minor.

Plan to continue the Freeze headlines as is.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Some stronger lift looks to brush across the far northern zones
early tonight in association with a strengthening low level jet off
to the northwest. Will keep some small chance PoPs going over the
far north and northeast zones tonight to cover this.

Otherwise, appears the main weather maker during this period will be
an upper low that is currently moving into the southwest parts of
the country. This upper low is expected to drift east into the Ohio
Valley by Saturday night. The best lift associated with this feature
looks to pass over the local area on Saturday and Saturday night.
Will bring in PoPs starting late Friday night and continue them
through Saturday night, with the highest PoPs on Saturday and
Saturday night. Models suggest some surface based and elevated
instability on Saturday and Saturday night, so potential for
thunderstorm activity at those times.

Based off of progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS highs on
Friday, and the lows Friday night look on the cool side. Will raise
the guidance numbers 3-5 degrees in those periods. Other periods
look OK.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Models continue to depict a very active period coming up in the
long term, with multiple organized low pressure systems passing
through the region. This will require many periods with
precipitation chances, save for a brief midweek break as a narrow
upper ridge passes through the area.

Convective indices will necessitate at least isolated thunder in
the grids Sunday and again during the day on Monday. Otherwise,
will carry only showers.

Temperatures will generally be warm, particularly early in the
week, with highs in the 60s.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well with only a
few changes required.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period with low
level wind shear potential increasing after 00Z Friday.

High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will drift off
to the east overnight as a warm front approaches from the west.
Predominant easterly flow will steadily veer to a more S/SE
direction by late day as the front approaches. Model soundings and
RH progs show the boundary layer will remain dry through much of the

Mid and high level clouds will increase slowly overnight into the
morning...then steadily thicken and lower through the latter half of
the day with the arrival of the warm front. May see a few light
showers or sprinkles accompany the warm frontal passage late in the
afternoon and evening...but expected sparse coverage due to the
presence of the dry air supports keeping any mention of rain out of
the terminals at this time. Once the front clears the area by late
evening...expect a decrease in mid level clouds and an increase in
surface flow with winds at 10-15kts and possibility for sporadically
higher gusts. Arrival of a strong low level jet into the lower Great
Lakes will promote the potential for low level wind shear from late
evening into early Friday.


Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ071-072.



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