Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250152
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
952 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

For the next several days Indiana will be in a somewhat unusual
weather pattern. Very large low pressure systems should cover the
state most of the time, causing unsettled weather. Expect brief
appearances of high pressure Friday and again the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Surface analysis shows low pressure in place near Southeast Ohio
and cyclonic flow across Indiana. Radar show rain coverage across
the area had diminished somewhat. A warm front/inverted surface
boundery was found stretching north from the low across Western
Ohio...remaining to be the focus for precipitation.

Overnight the surface low is expected to continue to propagate
north...along the frontal boundary. This will keep wrap around
light precipitation across Central Indiana through the night
passing from time to time. Given the more scattered nature of the
precip...pops have been lowered somewhat as a consistent steady
rain is not expected. Also with Indiana being on the cold side of
this system and any ongoing convection waning...have removed
thunder mention.

As for temps...have trended lows closer to expected wetbulbs.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

The forecast problem is POPs. Confidence in them is low.

The models agree on Indiana being in a pattern where small, weak,
features determine rain chances. These are difficult to forecast
and different models handle them different ways. Given the
uncertainty, it`s best to use consensus and have slight chance or
chance of rain most of the time. A precise forecast for the
weekend may have to wait until Friday morning.

Skies should be mostly cloudy thanks to the previously mentioned
small systems.

Confidence in the temperature forecast is moderate. Different models
have similar results. However just a few hours of clear sky versus a
storm would make a big difference. A consensus will be used, with
potential errors 2-4 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Saturday night a low pressure system will be moving through the
area. Models are showing quite a bit of variability on the
placement of the surface low and axis of qpf, but generally looks
like the best forcing will be across the southern half of the area
and confined highest pops there. Sunday looks like the cold front
will move through during the morning and should move most pops
out with its passage. Could see a brief shower in the wake of the
front so didn`t completely eliminate pops for the afternoon but
think much of the western half of the area should be dry for the
afternoon hours, and this should last through Sunday night. Monday
the next wave approaches and brings chances for showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, and this system stalls and keeps pops in
the forecast through Tuesday.

After mid to upper 70s on Sunday, high temperatures will
generally run in the low to mid 70s through the period under the
influence of an upper low slowly traversing southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250000 TAFs/...

Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions at most of the TAF sites are expected to
deteriorate to MVFR or worse overnight.

The surface low over NRN Kentucky is expected to drift
northward along a boundary through Western ohio. This will keep
cyclonic flow across Indiana...with wrap around rain showers and
low CIGS. Time heights and forecast soundings show saturated lower
levels and given the expected low progression of the surface low
through Thursday MVFR to IFR conditions overnight seem reasonable.

Some improvement to VFR appears possible by late afternoon
Thursday as the surface low finally is suggested to drift to
toward Western New York.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP



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