Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1234 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to central Indiana mainly Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Otherwise high pressure will provide dry
conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected much of the week,
with above normal readings moving in for the weekend into next week.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Warm advection aloft will continue through tonight keeping some mid
and high clouds across the area. Thickest clouds look to be across
the northern forecast area.

Enough moisture should work into the far northern forecast area to
work with some isentropic lift to produce a few showers overnight.
Can`t rule out a stray shower farther south, but feel the low levels
will be dry enough to prevent rain reaching the ground.

Stuck with a model blend for temperatures as this reflects the
effect of the expected sky cover.


.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

After the initial push of moisture/lift across the far northwest
early Wednesday morning, there should be a lull in rain chances
until the system gets closer.

Lower atmosphere will take some time to moisten up, but by 00Z Wed
evening far northwest should see enough moisture and forcing for
likely PoPs. The far southeast should remain dry, with chance PoPs
in between.

Kept the initialization`s likely or higher PoPs most areas Wednesday
evening with 40kt 850mb winds bringing in decent moisture, and an
upper trough/surface low pressure system bringing the forcing.
Chances decrease overnight Wednesday night as forcing begins to move
east. There will be enough instability for a chance of thunder.

Extreme eastern areas will see the chance for an isolated shower
Thursday morning, otherwise dry conditions can be expected as high
pressure builds in.


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Recent model runs have shifted any impacts from waves aloft
traversing over top of the expanding upper ridge north into the
Great Lakes through most of the period. Result will be warm...
windy and dry conditions for much of the extended as we leave
October behind and welcome in November.

Have removed all pops Friday night and early Saturday with the
northward shift to the track of the low and subsequent precip area.
A front will pass through the region early Sunday dry with
limited moisture present which will lead to a subtle cooldown
before warmth returns early next week. A stronger area of low
pressure will track into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday with
a cold front sagging into the region with perhaps a few showers
right at the end of the forecast period.

As stated...southerly flow will maintain warmer than
normal temperatures throughout much of the period...with the
passage of the front Sunday morning bringing a brief cooldown to
end the weekend. Highs should rise well into the 70s Saturday...
slip back into the 60s Sunday then warm slowly back into the 70s
early next week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 260600Z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 1234 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Rain over central Illinois as of 1130 pm EDT could impact KHUF and
KLAF starting after 7z and could hang around as long as 11z before
lifting north and east of the sites. At this time models show rain
with this reaching KHUF for a quick bit and staying at KLAF longer
and HRRR and RAP both agree with this. May include a tempo at KLAF
for a couple hours of MVFR visibilities.

VFR through the day Wednesday with deteriorating conditions starting
sometime after 21z Wednesday as a cold front approaches and rain
begins to overspread the area.

Light easterly winds will veer to southeasterly by midmorning and
then southerly during the evening, and increase in speed to around 8-
12 kts with gusts around 20 kts at times during the afternoon and
evening at KIND and KLAF.




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