Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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027
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
215 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Another warm-up will commence across Central Indiana today with
highs climbing back into the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday. It will
be a rather wet pattern though with periodic chances for rain
showers and even some thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday.
After that, cooler air will filter in behind a low pressure
system, much like yesteday`s scenario. Temperatures will drop back
into the 30s and 40s for the end of the week with some chances for
light snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Further out,
high pressure will bring dry conditions to the region late in the
extended period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

The main focus of the near term period will be precipitation
chances this evening and tonight ahead of a weak upper wave.

Temperatures will already start to rebound today with breezy
southwest winds up to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. This will help
push high temperatures into the mid to upper 40s. Mostly sunny
skies should prevail early, but clouds will gradually increase
during the afternoon and especially this evening ahead of a weak
wave approaching from Missouri.

As forcing intensifies with the aforementioned wave, moisture will
start spreading into the southern counties by this evening,
eventually encompassing central and northern sections overnight.
Partial thicknesses generally support a rain event, but some snow
and ice pellets cannot be ruled out over the central and northern
counties late in the night as temperatures start dropping into the
mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Rain showers will linger across all but the northwestern portions
of central Indiana on Monday morning, tapering off further across
the western counties as well by Monday afternoon. However, rain
chances will quickly re-develop by Monday evening across the
entire forecast area as a warm front enters the area. Will
continue to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast until
Tuesday afternoon when the low level jet increases across the warm
sector. Further strengthening of the low level jet along the Ohio
River on Tuesday night will support the definite pops that latest
Superblend initialization has produced as well as an increased
threat for severe weather. Currently, SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
has most of Central Indiana under a slight risk for severe
weather.

Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 60s and possibly
lower 70s across southern counties by Tuesday afternoon behind
warm front. For now, will stick close to guidance, but
temperatures may have to be increased further for Tuesday
afternoon with strong southerly flow. Meanwhile, overnight lows
will be in the 40s on Monday night and 50s on Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Cold front passing through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and
Wednesday will be off to the east of the region Wednesday night.
Still enough lingering residual moisture as the colder air spills
in that could see rain mix with or briefly change over to a few
snowflakes before the precipitation ends.

Amplified upper flow pattern setting up for late week with ridging
developing over the western part of the country and a broad trough
downstream over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Weak surface ridging
will provide for a mainly dry and chilly Thursday before a fast
moving Alberta Clipper swings through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday night. Precipitation will break out by late day Thursday
and continue Thursday night. Model soundings showing precipitation
likely to begin as rain before transitioning to light snow
Thursday night and early Friday. At this early stage...does appear
could see a very light accumulation in spots over northern
counties by Friday morning.

High pressure will build across the region for Friday and
Saturday with daytime temperatures warming as surface flow swings
around to the southwest as the center of the high passes. The
approach of a frontal boundary from the north by late next
weekend may bring a few showers into the area.

The roller coaster ride with temperatures will continue through
the period. After two cooler days Thursday and Friday with highs
no warmer than the low to mid 40s for most...the return of
southwest winds for the weekend will enable highs to rise into the
60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 261800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1215 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Winds will gust off and on through the afternoon hours out of the
southwest around 16-24 kts before setting down around sunset. Clouds
will increase through the afternoon and overnight as a low
pressure system moves through south of the sites. MVFR ceilings
could move up from the south as well, arriving at KBMG around 12z
or so and possibly getting up to KHUF and KIND after that. Don`t
think the lower cloud deck will make it as far north as KLAF so
left out of there. Could see some rain showers as well at the
southern sites tomorrow morning, but confidence isn`t great so
just going with VCSH for a couple hours at KHUF and for the
morning at KBMG for now.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP



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