Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 211818
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
218 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will be the
rule through much of the forecast period. After a small chance for
an isolated shower this morning, the next chance for rain will not
arrive until Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Removed POPs for the morning based on latest satellite and radar
trends. Ridging will remain in place today with much of central
Indiana seeing temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds
will generally be out of the south at 5-10 kts with highest winds
during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 316 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected through
the short term under the influence of a strengthening upper ridge.
High confidence forecast with good model agreement. High
temperatures will run in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in
the 60s.

&&


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper ridge will continue its influence across the area through
the first half of the long term, then an upper trough will build
into the area.

The result will be the continuation of above normal (or even well
above normal) temperatures through Wednesday, then readings will
cool to near or below normal.

A cold front will bring the cold air to the area mid week next week,
but models differ a bit on timing. Thus confidence is lower on PoPs
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Brief restrictions possible in fog near daybreak Friday...
otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
maintain dry conditions through the forecast period with limited
cloud cover. Cu this afternoon is most pronounced southeast of the
terminals nearest to the back side of a low level thermal trough
centered over eastern Kentucky. Cannot entirely rule out a few cu
at all but KLAF through the afternoon but no impact is expected.

Rest of the period will see periodic cirrus drift through the
region. Could again see brief visibility restrictions in localized
fog at the outlying terminals in the predawn hours through
daybreak. Generally expect a light southerly flow through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...White
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...Ryan



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