Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 022247
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE PER RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL SPRING AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
THICK VEIL OF LOW STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S
FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR TODAY... ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S.

COOL CLOUDY PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAILING THE FRONT FROM
SUNDAY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN A LOW POP MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE FORCING IS
VIRTUALLY NIL...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARRANTS A 20 POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS WARM END OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT AND PESKY UPPER TROUGH.

REMNANT WAVE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS SUBTLE UNDERNEATH THE
WAVE ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO RAPIDLY MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS IN NICE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT LIKELY TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLERS WITHIN THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT
LIKELY TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT REMAIN SHALLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WET BULB ZERO VALUES BELOW 5KFT WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO OHIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
DEEPER FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. HELD
ONTO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU
FORMATION UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL WITH A COOL N/NW FLOW.

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AS MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE REGION IS
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LOW. VERY LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. A MODEL
BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT 10-15MPH...EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO FROST ACCRUAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 022100Z IND TAF/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE ONGOING TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/PUMA



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