Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 151941
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION BEFORE PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN SHUT OFF BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS
LINE OF THINKING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF POPS AND ENDING THEM BY
06Z. WILL CARRY ONLY SHOWERS FROM 00Z ONWARD AS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE WANING QUICKLY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM MINS SUGGEST UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IS A GOOD BET
TONIGHT AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS NUMBERS WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AND THUS
TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT...HOWEVER MOS APPEARS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE ON MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO NUMBERS UPSTREAM AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES. HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL
MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS AND WARMER MOS ON HIGHS. MOS APPEARS MUCH
BETTER ON LOWS ESPECIALLY GIVEN NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...AND WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HAVE LARGELY
GONE WITH MOS ON MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PER SIMILAR MODEL QPF TIMING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTERNOON 00Z.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A FEW EVENING SHOWERS COULD HANG AROUND
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. HOWEVER...NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG NO WORSE THAN
MVFR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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