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000
FXUS63 KIND 131639
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WIDE
SWINGS IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST
WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY BUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST PATTERN
SETS UP...BRINGING SPORADIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES SWINGING FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL NEARLY DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE AN
AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WAS EXPANDING VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD. AT THE PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
REACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY 18Z...SO WILL BACK OFF ON SKY COVER A
LITTLE KEEPING MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL STILL INDICATE THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT LESS CLOUDS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN MARCH
SUN AND THAT RAP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER WILL RAISE
HIGHS MOST AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO LATER TODAY.  THERE WILL BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION GETS
GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A BIT EARLY BUT THEN STEADY OUT
AND EVEN START TO CLIMB BY MORNING. FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND WENT
WITH THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOOKING DRIER THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS...WITH NAM
AND GFS NO LONGER CARRYING ANY QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WITH THE WASHED OUT
FRONT AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT IMPLYING SOME SINKING MOTION.
MOS NUMBERS ARE NOW DRY FOR MAV AND MET AS WELL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS ARE
SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM DRY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. WITH THAT KIND OF
VARIABILITY PREFER NOT TO GO TOTALLY DRY AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN SHOULD IT OCCUR.

SATURDAY FAIRLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DON/T CLIMB MUCH ABOVE ZERO. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WENT WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER
50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WARM FRONT FORMING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
LATE AND WENT WITH POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO FAVOR THE WETTER EURO
THOUGH BY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PASSES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER
DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A TAD MORE ACTIVE
AROUND MID-WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.
MEANWHILE...THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 131800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
ILLINOIS/INDIANA STATE LINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROLONGED MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OF CEILINGS ABOVE 050.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 180-200 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

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