National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 140825
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST
GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER
WAVE OF ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z
AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS
AT 12Z EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A
COUPLE DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES AS PAIR
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA
NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COLD START TO
THE WEEK. THEN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. CONSENSUS AND
REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD...MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A
WEAK PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

REGIONAL BLEND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK OK CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WEATHER. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST ORGANIZED LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALONG A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF
60 KTS SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER
10Z. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE EXPECTED ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS ANY IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES.

MOST OF THE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS
ON MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.

EXPECTING CEILINGS INITIALLY AROUND 050...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL
OVERNIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AS LIFT DIMINISHES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...SURFACE GUSTS 22-28 KTS FROM
180-200 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT
140800Z AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS