Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
628 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

An upper level trough will swing through the region today,
ejecting a stalled frontal system off to the east, but not before
providing widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
across the area today, with some potential for showers lingering
tonight. Dry weather will return Friday into early next week as
broad surface high pressure dominates the area.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Widespread showers will be the rule across the area today. With
some elevated instability in place, thunder will remain a threat
but be more limited than overnight, generally across the
southeastern half or so early in the day, with thunder tapering
off during the afternoon as the surface system pushes eastward.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable in the southeast
nearest the boundary, but look to be overestimating potential for
warming in the northwest today, which should remain socked in
under cloud cover and showers. Expect only minimal recovery in
temperatures there today, and made adjustments accordingly.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Will hold onto some lingering pops mainly early in the night
tonight, with the remainder of the short term likely to be dry
under the influence of high pressure. Cannot entirely rule out
some lake effect sprinkles or showers Friday but will limit this
potential for now.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout.
Temperatures will bottom out Saturday morning in the upper 30s.
Cannot completely rule out frost potential in sheltered locations,
but wind should stay up enough to preclude a widespread frost, and
thus will not mention in grids at this time. Temperatures will
begin to recover as the weekend wears on and should be back to
near normals by the end of the weekend.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Progressive upper level flow aloft continues into the middle of
next week across much of the continental U S. With large high
pressure drifting to the east coast by the end of the
period...expect quiet and pleasant autumn weather for the region
into Wednesday.

After a mild day Sunday with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70
for most of the area...weak low pressure and an associated
frontal boundary will zip through the Great Lakes Sunday night.
With model soundings and RH progs showing deep subsidence and dry
air lingering over the Ohio Valley...the main impact from the
frontal passage will be to usher slightly cooler air back into the
forecast area to start the week. Highs in the 60s Monday and
Tuesday will warm back into the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Wednesday as low level flow veers to southerly on the back side of
the surface ridge.

An upper wave with an associated surface low will track into the
lower Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing the next
chance for rain showers. With extended models not yet in a
consensus on timing the arrival of the system...took a blended
approach with low chance pops late Wednesday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 201200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Poor flying conditions through this evening with rain and IFR
ceilings...improvements overnight into Friday morning expected.

Frontal boundary remains parked near the Ohio River early this
morning with a wave of low pressure tracking along it. The low
will track into Ohio today with the front pivoting east away from
the region by late day. Widespread rain will continue to track
northeast along the boundary and across central Indiana for much
of the day before diminishing this evening. With the exception of
KLAF where ceilings should remain higher...expect cloud heights
hovering generally between 700 and 1500ft through the morning
then gradually improving to MVFR and possibly even briefly to VFR
by late afternoon. Northerly winds are expected all day...perhaps
becoming gusty this afternoon.

Additional wraparound moisture will move into the area tonight
with model soundings suggesting establishment of an inversion.
Result should be ceilings falling back to MVFR before drier air
advecting into the forecast area during the predawn to near
daybreak period allows for some clearing. Any rain should end by
late evening. Winds will back further to northwest overnight and
remain near 10kts.





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