Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291837
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
237 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG IS BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...ONLY TWEAKING HOURLY FORECASTS WHERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN. LAYERED HUMIDITY PANELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO SURFACE OR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WEAK FORCING...AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...DON/T
THINK THE THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET SHOVED OFF TO THE
EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON EXPECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD....SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RECENT WARM DRY STRETCH GIVES WAY TO A MUCH COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER
REGIME.

OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GONE BACK TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE COOLER
WEATHER...NOW HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CONVECTION STILL
SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 40KT 850MB JET
ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FEEL COMFORTABLE IN MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL CARRY ONLY
CHANCE THUNDER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CU FIELD IN THE COLD ADVECTION LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THE WAVE ON SUNDAY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. LEFT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT LARGELY STAY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WITH EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW CU AT KBMG
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL CLOUD MENTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. LIGHT W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A BAND OF VFR
STRATOCU ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MAY SEE
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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