Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232033
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
334 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Light rain showers and drizzle will move out of the area later
tonight as low pressure moves further away from the area. Small
chances for rain will return Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
then change over to a mix and then snow Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The more seasonable air will settle in through
at least Monday with small waves moving through the flow bringing
small chances for snow to the area off and on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Cloudy skies will continue through the night on the back side of
low pressure. Chances for light rain showers and patchy drizzle
will continue until at least midnight, with the highest chances
across the northeastern and eastern counties, tapering to dry pops
and weather in the western counties. Most guidance is showing
little in the way of fog tonight so have not included that at this
point. For low temperatures used a consensus average in the mid to
upper 30s with neutral advection and cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Expect clouds will continue to hang around through the day on
Tuesday with an inversion in place. Thus stuck near cooler end of
the guidance envelope for highs in the mid 40s to around 50.
Tuesday night a system approaches from the plains and expect to
see small chances for rain arrive late. Wednesday a cold front
will move through during the day providing some surface forcing,
but upper forcing is lacking over the area. Thus will expect an
increase in cloud cover and some very low chance to slight chance
pops but nothing more. Wednesday night though the upper forcing
increases and a secondary cold front will move through. This
combination of forcing prompted high chance pops across the area
after midnight Wednesday night, and should see precip change from
rain to a mix of rain and snow over to snow during the night.
While only a trace amount to a couple tenths of an inch are
expected, this could still impact the Thursday morning commute.
Ground and pavement temperatures should remain above freezing so
bridges and overpasses would be the main concern.

Thursday high temperatures should reach the middle 30s to around
40, so could see a mix of rain and snow as well with any precip
that remains during the day. However expect lower pops on Thursday
with the best forcing already east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The extended period will see a full transition commence to a more
typical late January weather pattern for the Ohio Valley and Great
lakes region.

Amplified upper level flow pattern will continue over the
contiguous U S for late week and the weekend but with a shift from
the recent pattern...as the broad ridge refocuses over the western
part of the country and the trough sets up downstream across the
region. Several waves will rotate around the parent upper low as
it slowly tracks through the Great Lakes east into New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. This will keep central Indiana within a
broad cyclonic flow with cold air being drawn into the region
throughout the weekend. Expect periodic threats for light snow
showers...flurries and clouds as these waves traverse around the
base of the trough and through the area. Temperatures will be much
more typical of mid winter...with highs generally in the upper 20s
to mid 30s and lows primarily in the 20s.

Potential for a brief relaxing of the colder pattern on Monday as
extended guidance in agreement on ridging aloft transitioning
through ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front diving
out of the Canadian prairies. The front is progged to pass through
the region just beyond the 7 day period with a resumption of the
colder and more unsettled pattern as northwest flow aloft sets up
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 232100z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 334 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Updated current conditions. Previous discussion follows...

IFR conditions will remain the rule this afternoon for the sites,
with the possible exception of KHUF. Wraparound from the low
pressure system currently centered over western North Carolina is
keeping low ceilings in place. As this slowly moves off to the
east, similarly slow improvement will be seen moving in from the
west, with ceilings climbing to MVFR at KHUF as early as 21z or
so, with around 0z or later at KLAF. Guidance for KIND and KBMG
indicates they will stay IFR through the overnight. MVFR
visibilities may improve this afternoon/evening but then return
later tonight. VFR could move into the western sites before 18z
tomorrow and before 0z at KIND and KBMG, but confidence of this is
still fairly low.

Wind gusts out of the northwest around 15-25 kts should drop off
later this afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP


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