Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 141430
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A weak disturbance will slide south of the area today, which may
spark a few morning sprinkles across far southern central Indiana.
Otherwise, expect dry weather today and tonight. A frontal zone
and associated weak disturbances may begin to impinge upon the
area Tuesday onward, with increasing chances for showers and a few
storms as the week wears on. A brief break is expected to end the
work week, before another frontal system moves into the area for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Few showers along the East Fork White river have been shrinking
and should be gone within the hour. The rest of the area and
forecast looks pretty good. A mix of sun and clouds with max
temperatures in the middle 80s most areas.

High resolution models hint at peak heating isolated showers
today. Forecast is dry and not confident showers will occur yet so
will watch visible satellite and radar for evidence this could
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A frontal zone will begin to impinge upon the region as early as
Tuesday, and models continue to trend wetter earlier in the week.
Pops Tuesday and Tuesday night are low confidence as upper level
support is weak and disorganized. Confidence and pops increase
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the frontal system and more
robust upper level support approaches.

Consensus temperatures were generally in the ballpark compared to
low level thermal progs and were acceptable with minor tweaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

ECMWF suggests mainly a zonal flow during this period...with a
departing short wave moving through the eastern Great Lakes on
Thursday. This result in broad and weak cyclonic flow within the
lower levels and we have included some small chances for pops as
this system departs.

On Friday through Sunday...the ECMWF suggests large...broad but
disorganized high pressure over the Mississippi valley building
eastward across the Ohio Valley. the mid level appear dry with
subsidence and aloft the zonal flow remains with no upper
support. Thus dry weather for next weekend looks reasonable at
this time.

Overall with the zonal flow in place temperatures near seasonal
normals appear reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 141500Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Only minor tweak to clouds and winds.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 627 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

VFR Conditions are expected this taf period.

Warm air advection and SW flow in place aloft will allow a stream
of mid and high cloud to pass across the TAF sites
today...resulting in VFR CIGS at times. GOES16 shows this stream
of high clouds stretching from the southern plains to the Ohio
Valley.

Forecast soundings and time heights continue to suggest a dry
column overall and minimal to weak lift. Thus will just expect
some sct afternoon CU clouds again along with passing high cloud
within the quick W-SW flow aloft.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...JP/MK



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