Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY. THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATER TODAY AND
THEN EAST OF THE STATE BY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH DEPICTING THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO
USED A BLEND FOR POPS WHICH AMOUNTS TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHT GREATER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THESE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH.

UNDERCUT MAVMOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 70S (NORTHERN
COUNTIES) TO NEAR 80 (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND DURING
THIS TIME AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THE DISTURBANCES THAT INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MUCH HIGHER THAN A LOW
CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AT THIS TIME. SO REALLY DID NOT STRAY FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM. VARIOUS SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

EACH DAY WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASH OUT. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES LEADS TO BROAD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS DO VARY ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN WHILE 12Z ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THUNDER STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KIND SO LEFT OUT MENTION.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY TWEAKED AS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
WORSE AT TIMES AS OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. COULD BE A BRIEF MORNING BREAK TOWARD
12Z...AND THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING TOWARD
16Z AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AT
HUF AND BMG OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE...WILL
NOT PUT ANY LIGHTNING MENTION IN THE IND OR LAF TAFS BUT RATHER JUST
SHOWERS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 16Z MONDAY AT LAF AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT
THE OTHER SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
MORE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK/50

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