Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230800
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as high
pressure moves farther east and Gulf moisture is drawn up ahead of
the next cold front. Convective activity will increase on
Wednesday night and Thursday as that cold front traverses Central
Indiana. After that, high pressure will re-establish itself over
the Upper Midwest, resulting in mostly dry conditions for Friday
and Saturday. Further out, an upper trough will push into the
Upper Midwest, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms
to Central Indiana late in the weekend/early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Current IR Sat is depicting clear skies across the majority of
Central Indiana with a large area of high pressure centered over
Pennsylvania. This high pressure will dominate the weather still
through today, resulting in dry conditions and mostly sunny skies.
Some patchy fog could still form early this morning across the fog
prone sites, but that is low to medium confidence.

Temps today will top off in the low to mid 80s, stuck close to a
model blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The main focus of the short term period is shower and thunderstorm
activity with an approaching cold front.

Dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday night, but time cross
sections indicate a saturated air column and strengthening
isentropic lift after Wed 09Z ahead of approaching cold front.
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be from Wednesday
night through Thursday with forcing from the front. Pops will
decrease significantly though by Thursday night behind
aformentioned front.

A weak warming trend will prevail through the period with highs in
the low 80s early on, increasing to mid to upper 80s by Wednesday
and Thursday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be in the 60s and low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A weak frontal system near the Ohio river may produce a lingering
thunderstorm far south early Friday. Otherwise...mostly dry will be
the rule Friday through the first half of the weekend as high
pressure moves east across the great lakes. Models also indicate a
strong upper ridge across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early on
and then move it east to the middle atlantic coast late Sunday
before weakening it some by day 7.

Confidence is fairly high for mostly dry weather through Saturday.
Then there is lots of disagreement between models on how quick
thunderstorm chances return after that.   The GFS seems overly wet
Saturday night through day 7...while the GEMNH model is on the dry
side through Sunday.    The Euro also hints of a thunderstorm
complex moving our way Sunday.  This seems a bit high given the
strong upper ridge.   Will mention low chances of thunderstorms by
Sunday with better chance of storms Monday.

Model 850 MB temperatures are +16 to +18 celsius early on...warming
to +19 to +20 celsius late Saturday on.  Went slightly above super
blend temperatures most periods given this pattern.  May see some
90s southern areas by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230600z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

With clear skies, calm winds and small dew point depressions, look
for more fog at the smaller sirports tonight 06z-12z. Otherwise,
confidence is high in VFR conditions with cu development progs and
BUFKIT suggesting more scattered VFR bases after 16z. Shouls also
see some high, and maybe mid clouds at IND, ahead of an upper wave
after 00z Wednesday.

Winds will become south on the back end of surface high pressure, 6
to 8 knots after 16z.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK/JH


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