Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 292258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COLD AND COULD SEE SOME FROST.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS FALL
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN FAIRLY LATE THOUGH AND THIS
LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET. WENT WITH A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL GO
CALM LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
QUICKLY SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND THUS HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY
BUT LESS LATER AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SIMILAR TO A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN
THE NORTH BUT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE AREA
BUT MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH MORE POTENT. THUS WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST
TAPERING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+ KTS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. AS
FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED...SHOULD START THE DAY OUT AS RAIN
EVERYWHERE. MODELS ARE FASTER BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT THIS
RUN AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION BY INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX
AFTER 21Z APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF I70. IF TREND CONTINUES THIS TIMING
COULD NEED TO BE MOVED UP. WITH THE SYSTEM SPEED A BIT FASTER THIS
SET OF RUNS HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
A GOOD FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REACHING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. OVERALL...THE COLD
RAIN WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR PRETTY MISERABLE CONDITIONS HALLOWEEN EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT LEAVES COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHILE THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED...THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVERALL A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO CONTINUE. RELATIVELY
SMALL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE WEATHER. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THESE DISTURBANCES.

ALSO...INFORMATION FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER SHOWS
HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN ITS DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES TAF SITES. ENTERED VCSH AT KIND LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AS UPPER WAVE TRIGGERS SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

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