Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201344
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
844 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The Near Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm temperatures will continue through the work week, with colder
weather arriving for the weekend. A front will bring rain chances
Tuesday, with a stronger frontal system bringing more rain Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Today/
Issued at 844 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Observing equipment show very low visibility this morning across
most locations in the forecast area, with a quarter mile or less
being the general rule. Earlier satellite product showed fog was
fairly deep in some spots, and with light winds and some cirrus
overhead improvement is slow to come. Thus extended advisory through
11 am, by which point increased winds and sunshine should allow for
widespread improvement.

After the fog burns off late morning, expect sunshine for this
afternoon. This should allow temperatures to get near the warmer of
the MOS numbers, in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A front will move into the area late tonight. Looks like
forcing/moisture won`t arrive until after midnight, so will keep the
evening dry. The better forcing/moisture really don`t arrive most
areas until Tuesday, so will go chance or lower PoPs for most of the
area.

An upper trough and the surface front will move across the area on
Tuesday. Forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs most
areas during the morning. As the system exits, PoPs will lower
during the afternoon, with a lingering chance into Tuesday evening
east.

Wednesday should be warm and dry with the area in between systems. A
surface low moving through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front
in on Wednesday night, but moisture and forcing are too limited for
any rain.

Went above MOS for highs in the west on Tuesday with that area
seeing more sun. Raised everywhere on Wednesday as guidance has been
too cool.

&&


.LONG TERM.../Thursday Through Sunday/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Rain chances will return Thursday as a front returns north across
the area as a warm front. Better chances will arrive on Friday as a
strong cold front moves through and ends the Spring like
temperatures. With strong winds aloft and decent low level moisture
moving in, some strong to severe storms could accompany the front.

Northern areas could see some light wrap-around precipitation on
Saturday, otherwise dry conditions look to be the rule for the
weekend. Temperatures will be closer to average for the weekend.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 201200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

VLIFR conditions expected early in the period, with VFR returning by
16-18Z. MVFR conditions possible again late tonight.

Dense fog continues across most sites early this morning. KLAF has
come up, but expect dense fog to move back in by valid time.

The fog will gradually improve through the morning with VFR
conditions returning by 16-18Z.

Mid and high clouds will increase this evening as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers will move in after 06Z, and ceilings
will continue to lower. MVFR ceilings are possible once again after
09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST for all of central Indiana.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50



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