Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231739
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
WAVE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME WARMING FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST ADVISORY. ALSO WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW SPOTS AROUND
CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE.

ONCE THE SUN COMES UP FOG AND FROST SHOULD BOTH RAPIDLY BURN OFF.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THESE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSENSUS BASED ON
GOOD SUNSHINE EARLY AND NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION AT 850.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ELSEWHERE JUST BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE. FRIDAY THE MET KEEPS
SOME LOW POPS GOING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT DON/T
SEE THIS FEATURE IN THE OTHER MODELS SO WILL GO DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BUT THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NO UPPER SUPPORT. THOUGHT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER. FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

THE MODELS STAY CLOSE IN HOW THEY HANDLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT ABOUT DRY
WEATHER EVEN IF FOR DIFFERENT REASONS.

MODEL SIMILARITY GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THEIR COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BECOME
LESS CERTAIN AS THE MODELS MOVE APART.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231800Z IND TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH EAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE...ALTHOUGH ANY CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONCUR...SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONVECT TEMPS MAY BE
REACHABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MIXING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF CU...STILL VFR WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP

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