Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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198
FXUS63 KIND 252248
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A front sinking south of the area will confine thunderstorm
chances to the southern portion of central Indiana through most of
the next 48 hours. Upper level disturbances moving into the area
later in the week will allow thunderstorm chances to again
overspread most of the area. Temperatures throughout the 7 day
forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler
than in recent days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 644 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Pulled pops further to the southern two rows of counties to better
match current radar and rapid refresh model. A few adjustments on
clouds given recent satellite trends keeping a bit more mid and
high cloud as it streams NE out of decaying convection in the
bootheel region.

Temperatures were adjusted a degree warmer the first few hours
otherwise left overnight trend and mins alone.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Will have to maintain at least a slight chance across the south
Tuesday through Wednesday, although the area will likely remain
dry most of the time. Chances will again overspread the entire
area Wednesday night into Thursday as upper level troughing works
its way into the area. Significant organized convection does not
appear particularly likely at this time.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout with minor
tweaks. Temperatures will be cooler than in recent days but still
near seasonal normals. This will still represent a refreshing
break for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Although there are differences in the operational models regarding
various short waves, the 12z GFS and ECMWF and ensembles all
continue to suggest a mean Mississippi Valley trough. Waves will
move through the trough and downstream over the Ohio Valley and
result in an oscillating frontal zone that will be nearby. This
scenario would favor the threat of thunderstorms through the weekend
and into early next week per model QPF fields and the regional
blend. The best chances looks to be Thursday night into Friday,
especially if the stronger ECMWF frontal system verifies.

The thermal pattern would support normal to slightly below normal
temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid
and upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 251800z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Made adjustments through the next few hours based on current obs.
Will leave VCTS at KBMG although convection has developed south of
that site so far.

18Z discussion follows.

Could see a few MVFR thunderstorms at HUF and BMG through 22 or 23z
as the cold front settles southeast, otherwise, will continue to see
some VFR cu during the afternoon and early evening with bases around
4k feet.

As skies partially clear from northwest to southeast tonight, behind
the front, moderate to good confidence there will be some MVFR or
worse fog, mainly at the smaller airports, through around 13z
Tuesday. Otherwise, high confidence Tuesday will see VFR conditions
as high pressure settles over central Indiana.

Winds be northwest and north in the wake of the front this afternoon
and less than 10 kts. Tonight, winds will become very light to calm.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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