Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261704
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
INDIANA LATER TODAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.  A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MILDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE
RULE OVER THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO STEERING FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SO MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SECOND AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS. THIS TOO SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. THIS MIGHT SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ALREADY EXISTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT...CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD
ACROSS THE AREA. IF TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER...WILL ADJUST
POPS AS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF RANDOLPH COUNTY
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS AND WEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AS A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.  EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
THAT. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES ILLINOIS THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
WESTERN INDIANA BY MID OR LATE MORNING AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS LATER TODAY MOST AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FAR NORTH AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS STALL A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO.   MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON RAIN
CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOCUSING ON DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO OUR REGION...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND THE GEMNH MODEL
BRINGS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EAST INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  THE NEW EURO ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OUR WAY
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IT LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO DRIER AIR.  WILL GO CLOSER TO THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTION AS IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OTHER
MODELS.

WILL GO MOSTLY DRY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND KEEP
CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS.  ALL MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPORARILY BUILDS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE 85 TO 90 MONDAY AND UPPER 80S TO ALMOST MID 90S
TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BECOME A LITTLE WARMER.  LOWS WILL BE
MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME FRAME THAT A BLENDED
SOLUTION WORKS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALREADY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THUS A DRIER SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AND
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.

SOME MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER RAIN CHANCE COMES SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS
THERE.

OTHERWISE A DRY AND SEASONAL FORECAST WITH MOS AND BLEND

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ALL SITES VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. AROUND MIDNIGHT MAINLY
THE OUTLYING SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR IN BR...THAN LIKELY IFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. KIND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO MVFR AS PREDICTED BY
GUIDANCE...BUT DEPENDS ON IF ANY RAIN OCCURS HERE DURING THE DAY
AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WE HAVE LATE. IND COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO THE
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TOO GIVEN CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING.

WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY... AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN
ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT SETTLING DOWN AROUND DUSK. LEFT IN
MOST VCTS STARTING AT 20Z...BUT STARTED IT AT 18Z AT SITES SUCH AS
IND DUE TO RECENT ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE REMAINS VERY MOIST WHETHER FROM A RECENT
RAIN AND/OR THE ENVIRONMENT ITSELF. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. WENT WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR TO EVEN IFR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR KIND FOR NOW...BUT IND NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF
DROPPING BELOW MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...SMF


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