Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WEAKENS.  LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  DRY COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS HAD CLEARED OR WAS CLEARING OVER MUCH OF
OUR REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO TIPTON LINE.
MEANWHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  SOME AREAS MAY EVEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ON TO THE
EAST.  IN MOST AREAS WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE
THE RULE. ONCE AGAIN A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP TYPE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY.  MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE GFS IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND THE GFS.  MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW COULD SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY.  1000 TO 850
MB AND 1000 TO 700 MB THICKNESS FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF INDY
SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIP FROM INDY NORTHWARD...EXCEPT MOSTLY ALL
SNOW FAR NORTH.  AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY...COLDER AIR WILL
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AS FAR AS SNOW
AMOUNTS WENT CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO
AN INCH IN THE INDY AREA AND ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING FAR SOUTH.  ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z MONDAY AND WITH DRY WEATHER
AGAIN MONDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...A MOS
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE MOST OTHER PERIODS. MEANWHILE
NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD END UP A BIT COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BASICALLY DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING ZONAL FLOW. A
WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AND LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND BETTER MOISTURE
HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR JUST RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COOLER THAN AVERAGE BUT RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW HOLES...LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS
OF THE INVERSION STAYING PUT. KBMG AS PREDICTED SCATTERED OUT
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...ALLOWED
CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. GUIDANCE DEPICTED THIS YESTERDAY AND IT DID NOT PAN OUT.
DEFINITELY VFR BY SAT MORNING AND WINDS SHIFT WEST AND PICK UP
AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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