Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280807
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BY MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATELLITE INDICATES MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTHEAST RATHER
RAPIDLY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY CLOUDY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
TOWARDS EVENING...ALONG WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER. AS A RESULT...WILL ADD SOME CHANCE POPS
TO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER 282200Z TODAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A
LITTLE COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOESN/T LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A SUSTAINED 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ALL
AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL WARMER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WARMER AIR MAY GET FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY
START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL
ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT...LOOKS LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE SITUATION. THE LACK
OF A GOOD SURFACE FEATURE LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA AT THIS TIME. PLANNING ON A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL QPF AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM SUGGEST 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE MIXED WITH TIME.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH...BEFORE LIFT/PRECIPITATION THREAT MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL ALLOW
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS STILL ARE BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY...SO MIXED PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE COLD TUESDAY MORNING SO KEPT
THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION THEN. AS WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE FINALLY
ARRIVES RAIN WILL FALL LATER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. COULD BE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN
THE FROZEN GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

MODELS DIFFER IN SPEED OF COLD AIR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
FEEL IT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS WARRANTED AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
MOST AREAS. AS A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTHWEST AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT. MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE ALREADY INDICATED -SHSN AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS AROUND THIS TIME. THEN DEPICT CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT (OR 06Z SUN) THAT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FURTHER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR AS MORE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
...THOUGH THE LATTER WAS NOT PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TODAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10KT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SMF

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