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000
FXUS63 KIND 051122
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...BRINGING
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES.
FURTHER OUT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS SNOW CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. OTHER THAN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...THERE IS NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GENERATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS...SO EXPECT A
DUSTING AT MOST.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND UPPER
30S OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO HANDLE THE
PATTERN BEST. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A RAPID DECREASE IN MOISTURE AT
ALL LEVELS STARTING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW...BUT STARTED INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY END OF
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WEAK WARMING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO BUCKLE AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING RETURNING TO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO KEY IN ON TWO MAIN PRECIPITATION THREATS
DURING THE EXTENDED...ONE AROUND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
APPEARS IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS POINT...WHILE THE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RAIN THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 616 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBMG THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD. AN UPPER WAVE WILL RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME
FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD

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