Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221105
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
605 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Strong low pressure centered near Kansas City will move east
to eastern Iowa late today and across the great lakes late tonight
and Tuesday.  A frontal system extending south southeast will sweep
east across our region later today.

Colder air will spread in behind this front tonight and Tuesday
and producing mixed rain and snow showers some areas Tuesday.
The rest of the work week will be dry as high pressure pushes across
the region. The next chance for precipitation will come next week as
a frontal system moves out of the north central Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Strong low pressure was centered near Kansas City and was producing
a moderate southerly flow across our area.  Most of the fog and low
clouds has moved north our of our rejoin.

Widely scattered very light showers were across Indiana.  While
Radar indicated a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms was
occurring near the Mississippi river.  The showers and isolated
thunderstorms were ahead of a cold front which extended south across
the lower Mississippi valley.  The rapid refresh and other models
move this line of showers and isolated thunderstorms into western
Indiana by 12Z and to eastern sections of our region by midday today.
Models indicate a dry slot behind the showers will push east into
our area during the afternoon.

Will mention isolated thunder over the western two third our our
area this morning as the line of showers move through.  Models
indicate capes of 100-200 J/KG far west late today...but rapid
refresh shows very little convection across our area...so will omit
mention of thunder this afternoon.

High temperatures today will be in the middle to upper 50s which
is near a MOS blend.   Raised wind speeds a little this afternoon
with a moderately strong pressure gradient across our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 340 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Main focus will be rain chances and precipitation type tonight and
Tuesday as colder air pushes into our area.  Models indicate a
secondary cold front will move our way by late evening.   Showers
will also increase overnight as wrap around precipitation spreads
into our region.   Precipitation may become mixed with snow showers
over western sections towards daybreak Tuesday and over north and
central sections on Tuesday.

Leaned closer to the MET temperatures which had us dropping into the
middle 30s by daybreak and temperatures remaining near steady on
Tuesday.  Models indicate a fairly tight pressure gradient Tuesday
and we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph then.

The rest of the short term will be quiet and cooler with high
pressure building into the central plains Tuesday night and then
east to Tennessee by Wednesday night.  Lows will be in the middle
20s Tuesday night and Wednesday night and highs will be in the
middle to upper 30s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Both the ECMWF and GFS models have northwest flow over the area
as mid/upper level trough is moving off the east coast, and the
next mid/upper level trough is over the Intermountain region.
Between them is a fairly high amplitude ridge that will have high
pressure underneath it that will extend from the Upper Ohio Valley
southward through the central Gulf Coast states. This will result
in fairly nice weather for the area Thursday and Friday with
temperatures above normal with 40s on Thursday and 50s on Friday
for highs and lows in the low 30s Friday morning and lower 40s
Saturday morning.

Models slightly differ with speed of somewhat broad mid/upper
trough coming into the Plains Friday into the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys Saturday. Superblend brings light-moderate rain showers
into the area for Friday night/Saturday ahead of the associated
cold front. Then as the cold front moves off to the east, and
colder air moves in, a mixture of snow/rain showers changing into
strictly brief snow showers impact the region from northwest to
southeast overnight Saturday into Sunday. Given that the ECMWF is
slower than the GFS, timing of this changeover is in question for
Sunday. Temperatures start off above normal in the 50s Saturday
then fall into more normal range in the low/mid 30s from Saturday
night into Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/12Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 605 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

IFR at times mid morning through early afternoon and then again
later tonight.   MVFR or VFR at other times.

Strong low pressure centered near Kansas City will move to
southeast Iowa by this evening and across the great lakes late
tonight and Tuesday.  A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move east across Indiana mid morning to early afternoon.  This
will be followed by a dry slot with showers from wrap around
moisture spreading in from the northwest overnight.

South winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots by midday and becoming
southwest 10 to 12 knots tonight.   Low level wind shear possible
through mid morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...JH


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