Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 140236
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Dry weather will stay in place over central Indiana until early
Wednesday morning when a low pressure system approaches from the
west, bringing rain to the area through the day on Wednesday.
After a dry Thursday, a stronger system will arrive on Friday
bringing rain and chances for thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong, to the area through Friday night, with rain moving out
slowly on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Update...
Clouds will linger into the night across the eastern half of the
forecast area, but the western counties will experience clearing.
Overnight lows are still progged to bottom out in the low 30s, so
no changes needed. Updated grids have been sent.

Previous Discussion...
High confidence in dry conditions overnight. Forecast focus then
is on whether or not cloud cover will scatter and clear out or
hang around through the night. Low confidence forecast due to
uncertainty with models not in good agreement, and also their
tendency to move stratus out too quickly. High pressure is
building in from the west, but low level moisture is still in
place and is evident in time heights through the night. Think
western counties could see clearing that may not fill back in
since they`ve seen more sun through the day and are closer to the
high center, but elsewhere think anything that scatters over the
next couple of hours will fill back in later. Thus will go with
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies over much of the area through the
night, except perhaps the far western counties. Lows should run
around 32 to 34 given the cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 313 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

High pressure crossing the area Tuesday should finally allow
clouds to scatter and skies to clear. Even so temperatures will
only warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday night warm
advection will start to ramp up and bring in chances for rain into
the western counties late. A cold front will move through the area
during the day on Wednesday and rain will be in place ahead of the
front, as well as some scattered showers in the wake of the
frontal passage. Considered addition of thunder for Wednesday, but
only NAM shows any instability (even elevated) over the area, and
highs barely make it into the 50s, so decided to leave out any
thunder mention at this time.

By Wednesday night, dry conditions will be filling in behind the
front, and temperatures should drop into the low 30s. Thursday
should see some sunshine but with cold advection highs will remain
in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night Through Monday/...

Issued at 224 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

ECMWF suggests a strong strong system moving through the Ohio
valley and Great lakes on Thursday night through Saturday morning.

A strong warm front will arrive ahead of a strong low pressure
pressure system. This will result in rain chances arriving late on
thursday night into Friday. Much of Friday will be spent within
the warm sector and the ECMWF and GFS suggest favorable
shear...but little in the way of instability and upper support.
However models do suggest ample moisture in the area. Thus we will
continue to go with a wet Friday...and watch for the potential for
severe weather also.

The associated strong cold front will pass on Saturday and this
will again require chances for precip. However as colder and drier
Canadian air arrives on Saturday night and Sunday. Dry and cold
weather should return for the end of the weekend and the start of
the next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 14/03Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Update...
VFR conditions are prevailing at KIND.

Previous Discussion...
A few MVFR ceilings are lingering, but all TAF sites should be at
VFR levels by late evening. After that, VFR will prevail for the
duration of the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will start out light
and variable then become southeasterly.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/TDUD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...TDUD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.