Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GIVE OUR
STATE DRY WEATHER STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH INDIANA FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER WITH IT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING. THE MAV POPS LOOK
REASONABLE BASED ON HOW THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING NOW.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE...THERE ARE APT TO BE SOME
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BECAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
TODAYS RAIN SHOULD FAVOR STRATUS TONIGHT AND CUMULUS THURSDAY.

THE DAMP BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REDUCE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE.
GIVEN THAT AND THE PROJECTED THERMAL FIELDS..THE MET TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.





&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM IS WHEN RAIN WILL START.

THE MODELS AGREE THURSDAY NIGHT IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. FRIDAY
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE STARTING RAIN THAN THE GFS. LATELY
THE NAM HAS TENDED TO START RAIN TOO FAST...BUT THIS TIME THE
EUROPEAN MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THE NAM OVER THE GFS.

GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM...AND EACH HAVING
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES...A CONSENSUS POP FROM THEIR STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FRIDAY. THIS IS OFTEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO
CANCEL OUT ERRORS.

ALL MODELS BUILD A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE CAPE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...NOT ONE MODEL RAISES POPS ABOVE THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN
THEY ALL AGREE CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES THE MAIN PROBLEM IS ON FRIDAY WITH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEING CLOSE AT OTHER TIMES. ON FRIDAY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE SEEM TO REFLECT HOW THE PARENT
MODELS ARE HANDLING PRECIPITATION. GIVEN A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED
FOR POPS..A CONSENSUS WILL BE USED FOR TEMPERATURES ALSO.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM SO USED
A BLEND. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HAD SOME PROBLEMS SO DEVIATED FROM
IT WHEN NECESSARY.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND AND FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

DURING THE WEEKEND A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING COLD FRONTS WITH THEM. UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING THAT FAR OUT PRECLUDE GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS FOR ANY ONE PERIOD.

ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. AFTER THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK
IN RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE SNEAKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FO THE 23/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART AS COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MAINLY ON A
KMIE-KIND-KHUF LINE. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SCATTERED -SHRA OVER WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH WILL EFFECT ALL BUT KLAF THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST GOING INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WHICH WILL CLEAR SKIES GOING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. QUESTION IS
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL BE AROUND DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE BETTER SITES FOR FOG WILL BE KHUF
AND KBMG WHICH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...DWM

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