Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 191635

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A frontal boundary will stall over the Ohio Valley today, before
an approaching upper level trough develops low pressure along the
boundary late today into tonight, which will then move along the
front bringing showers and storms to the area. The upper trough
will push the boundary east of the area, bringing a return to dry
and cool conditions Friday. Dry and seasonable conditions can be
expected late in the weekend into next week as highs climb back
into the 60s.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Expect the front to settle near the river later this morning, and
move little through midday. This will confine precip chances to
the far south during the first half of the day. As low pressure
develops along the boundary and moves northeast along it, may see
some northward shift of the front this afternoon, and will ramp up
pops accordingly across the area, with a sharp north south
gradient across the area. Day 1 marginal risk across the south is
not unreasonable but consider any strong storm threat highly

Consensus temperatures appear reasonable given upstream numbers.
70s will be widespread across the area today.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Expect widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms much of the
area tonight into early Thursday as the surface wave moves through
the area along the boundary. Precipitation will end from west to
east late Thursday into Thursday night as the upper trough swings
through and forces the surface low and boundary eastward.

Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches appear likely across
the area, with somewhat lesser totals northwest. This could bring
some main stem rivers near or into minor flood, particularly along
the lower reaches of the Wabash, White, and East Fork White in
central Indiana.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout. Expect a
cooling trend throughout the short term, with the upper 30s back
in play for low temps by Saturday morning.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Progressive...yet amplified flow pattern aloft persists through
the extended across much of the continental U S with generally
quiet weather expected for central Indiana through the middle of
next week. A cool start to the weekend as the Ohio Valley remains
within a cyclonic flow regime on the back side of the deepening
upper low over New England but heights aloft will modify into
early next week as broad ridging focused over the western part of
the country transitions east and centers over the Ohio Valley by
the end of the period.

Large area of high pressure will serve as the primary influence
throughout the period as it drifts into the southeast States. A
fast moving low pressure will track through the Great Lakes with a
trailing frontal boundary late Sunday but no rain is expected to
accompany the front with little moisture available. The main
impact the passage of the front will have will be to slow the
warmup for a day or two early next week before southerly low level
flow can resume over the Ohio Valley by midweek.

Saturday will be the coolest day of the extended with highs
primarily in the 50s. Temps should warm into the 60s thereafter
with further warming into the 70s possible by next Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system set to impact the region late in
the week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 19/1800Z Issuance/...

Issued at 1211 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Latest regional radar and satellite imagery shows overcast
conditions with scattered thunderstorms now occurring over the
southern half of IL. Latest analysis shows stationary frontal
boundary from east central MO through southern IN between KBMG
and KIND. VFR conditions currently should become MVFR in the next
several hours at all TAF sites, with precipitation and occasional
IFR/LIFR after 22Z.

Expect presipitation to be around through much of Thursday ending
just before/around 21/00Z Thursday evening. Winds could be gusty
near thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight.




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