Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
AND BRING LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT ARE
LINGERING AROUND THE INDY AND MUNCIE AREAS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS
NECESSARY. CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ACROSS INDY/MUNCIE EVENTUALLY AS WELL.

NOT SURE ABOUT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEAR AREAS LAST NIGHT NOT
SEEING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME
MODELS STILL SUGGESTING IT...CANNOT JUSTIFY REMOVAL OF THE FOG
EITHER.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AND CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN OVER THE AREA AND BRING SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WILL LEAVE CENTRAL INDIANA WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT
THE SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF ONLY 1-3 DEGREES SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG FORMATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE THOUGH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS/STRATOCU THAT HUNG AROUND LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...SO
AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF SKIES DO CLEAR MAY NEED TO
INCREASE INTENSITY/AREAL EXTENT OF FOG IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
EAST COAST AND AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS THOUGHT THE
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH
LOOKED GOOD. THIS WAS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE
INITIALIZATION TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY BUT SHOULD SEE
WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL
AROUND THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM THURSDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

GFS DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DEVELOPING IN TO A BROAD...POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH WARMER
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPS.

BY THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...AS IT IS CUT-OFF FROM THE JET FLOW ALOFT STREAMING
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THUS WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL REMNANTS BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHCS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. SATELLITE TRENDS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST SOME VFR CU
WILL HANG AROUND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT IND AND LAF.
OTHERWISE...MORE DIURNAL CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. WITH NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND ANOTHER DRY
TODAY TODAY...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



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