Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221720
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
120 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

High pressure is expected for the next few days. A frontal system is
expected to move through the area over the weekend. Another low
pressure system may affect the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 927 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

No changes planned. Forecast on track. Cool high in control with
NE wind. Thin cirrus to slide in this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Model data suggest upper heights will rise over the area during the
next couple of days as mid level ridging moves east from the Plains.

Models still show some weak signals for a precipitation threat on
Thursday and Thursday night within a warm advection zone, but given
the presence of the upper ridge, don`t think the threat is all that
high at this time. Will continue with chance PoPs for showers on
Thursday and Thursday night.

An upper low is progged to move into the southern Plains by Friday
night. Will keep some chance PoPs in the forecast for late Friday
night in association with this upper low, but it appears the better
precipitation threat will be after this forecast period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs on Thursday
are probably too warm, and the guidance highs on Friday look too
cool. Will make adjustments on the order of about 3-5 degrees in
both cases. Guidance lows look OK for now.

Less confident on widespread freezing conditions in the far south
tonight given increasing cloud cover. After collaborating with
surrounding offices, will hold off on another Freeze Warning at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

At least two low pressure systems in quick succession appear set
to impact the area during the long term portion of the forecast
period.

These will require fairly high pops, especially over the weekend
and again early in the next work week. Thunder will be a threat at
least with the first one and perhaps with the second, although
this is more iffy. A widespread severe threat does not look
particularly likely for the moment.

Temperatures will be fairly warm throughout, with highs in the 60s
most days.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well with few
major changes required.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 211800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 112 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR Conditions are expected through the TAF period for all
terminals. Winds of generally less than 10 knots will slowly veer
from the northeast to the southeast tonight as a high pressure
moves east across Michigan. Some mid-level clouds will move in
shortly before sunrise with a slight chance for showers later in
the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...White


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