Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 262301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
701 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A cold front and weak low pressure system will move through the
area overnight, bringing showers and a few rumbles of thunder to
the area. High pressure will build in tomorrow, bringing a return
to dry weather through the early part of the weekend. A weak
disturbance aloft may bring showers to the area late this weekend,
but the majority of the next week will be dry.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Raised pops to likely over areas near and northwest of Sullivan
per radar trends.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Broken band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
through the area mainly late this afternoon into the early
overnight. A few showers may linger late tonight but thunder
threat will likely end.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with only minor tweaks.
Temperatures should be steady particularly early ahead of the


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Expansive post frontal cloud cover can be expected through at
least midday Thursday as ample low level moisture persists under a
substantial post frontal inversion.

Dry weather will persist through the remainder of the short term
under the influence of broad surface high pressure.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable, with minor downward
tweaks to max temps to account for increased cloud cover on


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The models agree on the fundamentals. Westerly flow in the upper
atmosphere will result in mostly dry mild weather for Indiana. There
are discrepancies in details with weak waves aloft and weak surface

There is strong confidence the regional intialization, which will be
used for this package, will catch the main trends. Within that,
today`s forecast may by off by 2-4 degrees with temperatures and
5-15 percent with POPs.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 270000Z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 657 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Showers will overspread the sites within the next hour or two and
are already falling at KHUF and KLAF. At this point all thunder is
well south of the area so will leave out any thunder mention. most
of the showers are maintaining VFR conditions so will only
introduce briefly reduced visibilities if it looks like a heavier
shower is going to pass over a TAF site. Later tonight though
after the cold frontal passage ceilings are expected to drop to
IFR and hang around there through the rest of the night and into
Thursday morning. Ceilings could pick back up to VFR Thursday
afternoon. Winds will shift around to the southwest and then
northwest after frontal passage but speeds behind the front are
still only around 10 kts or so.




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