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000
FXUS63 KIND 111642
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH TODAY.  A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF OUR REGION.  SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A
WINTRY MIX.  ALL OF THIS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WAS CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF I-70 WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES FURTHER SOUTH. PATCHY FREEZING FOG PERSISTED ACROSS
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AT 15Z.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. FOG CONTINUES TO
STUBBORNLY PERSIST FROM TERRE HAUTE SOUTH THROUGH VINCENNES...BUT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST HOUR. WILL HOLD ONTO
PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL GRAZE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME NORTH
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST IN
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE FRONT CLEAR OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 20-21Z. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S LOOK GOOD.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS VERY COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOW COVER
OVER MOST AREAS WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS. SOME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE EVEN A LITTLE COLDER WITH A DEEPER
SNOW COVER THERE AND GIVEN HOW COLD IT GOT THERE THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  GIVEN PAST FEW DAYS WILL STILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES.

ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS INDICATE
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST BY LATE FRIDAY...WHILE OTHERS
SUCH AS THE EURO DON`T BEGIN IT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR NOW WILL
ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR
VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE LATE FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
1000-700 MB FROM THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND MOSTLY SNOW ELSEWHERE.  WITH THE EURO BEING A
LITTLE COLDER WILL ONLY MENTION THIS WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH. WILL ALSO ADD A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY FAR SOUTH SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
QUITE COLD.  MODELS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN THE RANGE OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES AND WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE SOUTH MOST PERIODS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 241 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
THIS RUN MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST
FEATURES. HOWEVER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LACKS IN SOME MODELS.
THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR MOST ITEMS.

SATURDAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING SO
CARRIED CHANCE POPS THEN.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THESE WAVES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THESE WAVES IS LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF POPS IN THE
EXTENDED IS LOW.

FOR SUNDAY LATEST RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE AREA SO HAVE REMOVED POPS THEN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WENT WITH ALLBLEND/S SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE DRY.

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH SUNDAY NIGHT PERHAPS BEING THE COLDEST...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 111800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

THERE ARE MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AREA NEAR KLAF
AND SOUTHWEST OF KBMG...VFR ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT IS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. THUS...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT ALSO
DROP AIR TEMPERATURES TO AROUND ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

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