Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230646
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
245 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Some fog starting to show up on recent observations. Expecting some
patchy fog through the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, not seeing anything in the model data to serve as a
precipitation trigger, so will continue with a dry forecast under
strong ridging aloft.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Model data suggest only a slight progression to the long wave
features expected during this period, with the local area remaining
under the influence of upper ridging. Operational and ensemble data
suggest little threat for precipitation, so will keep the forecast
dry through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods continues to look too cool. Will bump
up the guidance temperatures about 2-5 degrees each period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Good confidence on at least mostly dry and warm weather through
Tuesday under the influence of a persistent ridge. After that, good
confidence a cold front and cyclonic flow will bring much cooler
weather to the area with the potential for a few showers at times.

Blend looks to handle temperatures reasonably, but confidence in
timing and coverage of pops is low. The blend just brings sporadic
low pops to small parts of central Indiana Wednesday and Friday.
With confidence low, will just accept the blend regarding pops.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for KIND 230600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

With the exception of visibility restrictions from fog near
daybreak...VFR conditions are anticipated.

mostly clear overnight with areas of fog towards sunrise at outlying
TAF sites.  Will mention tempo IFR for a few hours.  Then all fog
will out after sunrise. Will mention a few CU Friday afternoon.
Otherwise...high pressure will keep conditions mostly clear through
rest of the period.

Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH



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