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000
FXUS63 KIND 081113
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
613 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES OF A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH MILD SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH
MUCH OF CENTRAL SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. BUT THEN... A
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS IT WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHERN STATES RIDGING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT AND ALL HAVE LIGHT QPF CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH A FIRST WAVE AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SECOND ONE. THEY ALL SUGGEST THE FIRST
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 295K LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DART OFF THE NORTHEAST AND SECOND AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE THERE.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY SEE ANY LIGHT
RAIN MIX WITH SNOW. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SIMILAR BUT JUST
START A FEW HOURS LATER WITH THE SECOND WAVE AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MODELS THEN BRING IN HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING NICE DRYING COLUMN. MOS AGREES SUGGESTING CLEARING
SKIES...BUT SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
1000 FOOT INVERSION.

WITH THE CLOUDS ALREADY BLANKETING CENTRAL INDIANA...TEMPERATURES
HAVE STALLED WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE 00Z MOS. MOS
CLOSE AND APPEARS REASONABLE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
OVERNIGHT CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT
WILL LIE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST ONLY HIGH AND PERHAPS MID CLOUDS LATE IN
THE SHORT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE DRY WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH BUFKIT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS BY MID
MORNING.

PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY WITH THE WINDY
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 60S BY MONDAY. EVEN
SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE BAD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL SHOWING VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A LOW TRACK SOUTH OF THAT IN THE ECMWF. AT THIS POINT
THINK BLENDING THE TWO OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH
THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BRING THIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF
THE ECMWF TRACK VERIFIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN FOR A LONGER
PERIOD...IF THE GFS DOES EXPECT A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND IT/S
PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES SO THAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE FORECAST IS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY ON
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KLAF WILL SLOWLY SINK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL. TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD HOLD ON UNTIL AFTER 0Z AT
ALL THE SITES....WITH CLEARING MOVING INTO KLAF BY AROUND 2Z AND
THE OTHER SITES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF THE
SITES...BUT RADAR MOSAIC CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE PRECIP SHIELD COULD
CLIP KLAF SO MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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