Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282322
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW TO OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY.  AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY BEGINNING AS
FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

RADAR AND WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REACH WESTERN INDIANA BY 6 PM AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
REGION THIS EVENING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH
BEST FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW TONIGHT...BUT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FAR
SOUTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  GIVEN THE COLDER TREND OF THE MODELS IT NOW
APPEARS GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
ALSO WENT WITH MODEL TRENDS OF UPPING TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THIS
AREA TO 6 INCHES.

I DOUBT THAT WE WILL GET 6 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY AND OUR 24 HOUR
CRITERIA FOR HEAVY SNOW IS 8 INCHES...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

MODELS STILL INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS FAR SOUTH TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES.  THERE STILL MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING.  FOR THE INDY AND TERRE HAUTE AREA
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW AS WELL AS OUR NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING AND RISE SOME LATE
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA.  WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION CUT HIGHS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY FROM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.  MODELS STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WILL WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN.  HOWEVER A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING.

GIVEN THE STRONG UVV AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING BECAUSE OF SNOW
COVER. OTHERWISE...A WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AND THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL STILL BE A GOOD BEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP THE COLD FRONT...SO POPS WILL
BE LOWER MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...WENT MAINLY SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO FASTER
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE THE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 614 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE IL/IN BORDER.
THEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
THUS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. AS SNOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALL AREAS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO PUSH BACK
THE START OF SNOW TIMING BY AND HOUR OR TWO BASED ON RECENT OBS
AND TRENDS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY SO KEPT IFR GOING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG BUT STILL FEEL ODDS ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SMF

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