Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 142021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to central
Indiana late tonight into Sunday morning. Much colder air will flow
in behind the front on Sunday with falling temperatures. High
pressure will then provide dry conditions into the first half of
next weekend. Temperatures will be below average Monday, then
gradually warm to above average by mid to late week.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The remainder of the afternoon will be dry and warm across the area
with a good flow of warm air from the south. Better moisture
transport from the 850mb jet will remain west and north of the area,
keeping the showers and thunderstorms northwest of central Indiana.

The evening will remain dry as well with the cold front and low
level jet remaining to the west. However, as both move into the area
overnight, chances for rain will increase from west to east. By the
end of the tonight period, the western third of the area will see
likely PoPs, with lower PoPs east.

There will be a threat for some thunderstorms tonight ahead of the
front with some warm and moist air in place across the area, but by
the time the main forcing gets here instability will be pretty low.
There could be some wind gusts over 45 mph if the storms can bring
down some of the strong winds aloft, but at the moment am not too
concerned with severe storms.

The pressure gradient will tighten up as the front approaches, so
winds will become gusty with gusts near 30 mph possible by late

Temperatures will remain warm overnight with southerly flow. Went
near or a little above the model blend.


.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The front will move through the area Sunday morning, bringing
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The low level jet will have
brought up good moisture, and forcing will the front will be good as
well. Thus went likely or higher PoPs all areas during the morning.
Rain will cut off quickly behind the system, so went dry all areas
18Z onward.

With a decent pressure gradient across the area, strong winds aloft,
and cold advection, expect gusty winds during the day. Wind gusts
around 35 mph are possible, especially across the northern forecast

Temperatures may rise a degree or two west in the morning, with
perhaps a few more degrees east ahead of the front. Temperatures
will then fall through the rest of the day with the cold advection,
with readings in the 50s by mid afternoon.

High pressure will then build in and bring dry conditions Sunday
night through Tuesday. Concern then focuses on frost potential late
Sunday night and again Monday night. Latest model blend has come in
warm enough that frost shouldn`t be a problem, except perhaps for
sheltered low lying areas. However, the NAM is cooler than the rest,
and if it were to verify, frost would be more of a problem. Will
have to watch closely.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The coming week will be much more like fall with prolonged dry
weather and mild temperatures as high pressure dominates the area.
Highs should gradually climb from the mid 60s into the low to mid
70s during the week.

Blended initialization handled things well and only minor tweaks
were required.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 14/21Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 420 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR Conditions through 11Z tomorrow.

A cold front will move across central Indiana early tomorrow
morning bringing chances for rain, gusty surface winds, and low
level wind shear. Winds will veer from the south to the northwest
in the aftermath of the front and will gust in excess of 25 kts
through the day tomorrow. Low level wind shear will also be a
concern after 0Z tonight with a strong low level jet anticipated
ahead of the front. Precipitation will begin after 9Z in Lafayette
and will continue through the early morning hours across central
Indiana. Brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings are possible during
heavier showers.





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