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000
FXUS63 KIND 040225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
925 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
KEEPING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA AND
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
THEN FALL BACK A BIT AS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO AT THE ONSET BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK OK AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING EVEN FURTHER. ALSO...ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THE COLD AND FOR ANY UNTREATED ROADS
WITH SLICK OR SNOW COVERED SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN. GUIDANCE WOUND UP BEING TOO
WARM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT...SO TRENDED COLDER CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE SHORT TERM. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER SO
GENERALLY DISREGARDED IT. THUS STUCK CLOSE TO A MAV AND ECM MOS
AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOP IT IN COMPARISON TO OTHER
MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA IN ADDITION TO SOME RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOTH ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THUS THOUGHT THE ADDITION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
DURING THESE PERIODS WAS A GOOD IDEA. AT THIS POINT ONLY LOOKS LIKE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION AND ONLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS RIDGING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY ENDING AS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLDER AIRMASS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN IMMEDIATE RETURN TO RIDGING ALOFT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL ENABLE A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
FROM A WEAK WAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT THIS WOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THE
INFLUENCE AND NO IMPACT TO OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY BELOW 10KT BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KT TOMORROW.

NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/MK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD

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