Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 292027
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

A front will move through the area tonight and Wednesday, bringing
another chance for some rain to parts of central Indiana. Dry
conditions will then rule through the first half of the weekend with
high pressure gradually building in. A couple of systems could bring
more precipitation at times Sunday into Tuesday. After Wednesday,
temperatures will return to seasonable levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

Clouds will increase once again through the afternoon and into the
evening as a front approaches from the west. Isentropic lift
increases, and some additional lift will be provided by upper and
low level jets (bulk of low level jet will be east).

However, best forcing looks to be southeast of the forecast area.
Thus will keep PoPs in the chance category or lower, and confine
highest PoPs to the southeast portions of the forecast area (kept
the far northwest dry).

Based on latest hi-res model data, started rain chances at 02Z.
Highest chances will come overnight when the better forcing arrives.

Stuck with a model blend for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Front will move through early in the day Wednesday and upper jet
also moves east as well. Thus feel best chances for any rain
Wednesday will be over the east early in the day. Even there PoPs
will be low as better forcing is well east.

Cooler air will lag behind the front so expect another mild day
Wednesday.

Area remains in cyclonic flow Wednesday night into Thursday so
expect clouds to linger at least across the northern half of the
area. Dry conditions will continue with no forcing across the area.

High pressure will build in on Friday continuing the dry weather.

Stayed with the model blend for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Friday Night Through Tuesday/
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

Models are coming into better agreement with the 12Z ECMWF much
closer to the GFS and its ensembles.  Thus, in collaboration with
surrounding offices, made some changes to the SuperBlend
initialization for parts of the long term.

Dry conditions will continue through Saturday night, but then an
upper trough and surface system will bring precipitation chances
Sunday into Sunday evening. At the moment, believe the vast majority
would be rain, but cannot rule out some snowflakes mixing in early
Sunday.

Monday now looks to be in between systems and dry, but another
system will bring precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. Looks
like temperatures will be warm enough for all rain.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 292100 TAF Update/...

Issued at 327 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

No changes needed to KIND TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

Mainly VFR conditions at all TAF sites through approximately
30/0600Z...with patches of high cloud remaining across the area.
Kept a SCT to BKN mid-level deck this afternoon and
evening...owing to clouds upstream of the TAF sites early this
afternoon.

Tonight into tomorrow morning...expect a lowering of ceilings as
a frontal boundary approaches and moves eastward across the TAF
sites. Currently expect ceilings to drop to around 800 feet
during the early morning hours. Also...if winds subside in the
early morning hours more than currently expected...would not be
surprised to see a drop in visibilities as well. Not confident at
this time that this will occur. Conditions look to improve back to
VFR by around 14-1600Z.

Surface winds during the TAF period look to veer from south
currently...to west by late tomorrow morning. Speeds look to be
around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MRD/50



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