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000
FXUS63 KIND 061938
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY
AND PUSH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

THE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST WARMER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING OUR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER.

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT
WEEKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

POCKETS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY. TEMPS REMAINED CHILLY AS OF 15Z...WITH MOST ALL LOCATIONS
NOW INTO THE 20S.

FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS NEEDED. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP AFTERNOON
HIGHS UP 3-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WARMER TEMPS SUPPORTED BY
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR UNDER
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE GOOD
HEATING COURTESY OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST STATES STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THICKER
CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 153 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN SO
WILL USE A BLEND.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS WILL TREND WITH A CLEAR NIGHT AND A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAVMOS AND METMOS TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. OF NOTE...850MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RISE NEAR 3C AND WITH GOOD SUN THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS AT
OUR ABOVE OUR SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST COLUMN
REMAINS DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS ADVANCING WILL TREND LOWS WARMER
THAN MAVMOS.

ALAS...THE WARM TEMPS WERE NOT MEANT TO LAST AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN GOING...WHAT ELSE WOULD YOU EXPECT? ANYWAYS...Q VECTORS SHOW
GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS AND
NAM SHOW GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
SATURATION. HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LACKING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS
ONLY CREEPING IN TO THE 20S. THUS OVERALL WE HAVE A MARGINAL
SITUATION. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIP WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

YET ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE PLAINS STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AIR AND ALL TOO
FAMILIAR COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THAT THE ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
WEATHER GIVING WAY TO RETURN OF COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50S /WITH
MAYBE SOME 60S SOUTH/. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 30S AND 40S.

ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND COLDER.

NOT SURE YET ABOUT THE COLDER /AND SNOWIER/ SOLUTION OF THE 12Z
ECMWF SINCE THE 00Z WAS WARMER AND WEAKER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST BUMPED
UP ALLBLEND/S POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY /INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY/.

KEPT THE TEMPERATURES ALLBLEND GIVES...WHICH MEANS RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND RAIN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE WAY WEDNESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.

ONLY EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS PLUS FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT MOST SITES. HAVE PUT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KIND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. SOME MODELS HINTING AT IFR CONDITIONS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. PUT FOG IN FROM
ABOUT 10Z-15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

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