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000
FXUS63 KIND 092346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY INTO MIDWEEK
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO RULE IN BETWEEN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 645 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

UPDATED TIMING BY PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...NOW MORE AROUND 5-6Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP AND 18Z NAM
OUTPUT. PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND SO DO
OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS SNOW/NO SNOW BOUNDARY AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL OCCUR. WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT MAKE MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS TAIL END OF FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITS GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON THE SECOND ONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE REGION BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE AND AIM ON THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
RAPID SPREAD OF NARROW SNOW BAND ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF I-70 LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...QUICKLY EXITING
BEFORE SUNRISE. THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BRIEF
PERIOD OF DENDRITIC GROWTH MAXES OUT OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
WITH RATIOS NEAR 15 TO ONE...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH BY
DAWN FROM VINCENNES TO BEDFORD-BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS AND SEYMOUR.
LOCAL TWO INCH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THE CUT-OFF FOR NO SNOW
WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL AND JUST A BIT NORTH OF I-70 SO SOUTH SIDE
OF INDY METRO COULD SEE HALF INCH WHILE NORTH SIDE GETS JUST A
DUSTING.

CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS NOT BAD BUT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BUT STILL 10-18F RANGE NW TO
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 148 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

TONIGHT/S SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY EXITING TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.
CURRENT MAX TEMPS IN LINE WITH LATEST DATA AND DESPITE SUNSHINE
EXPECT NO BETTER THAN MID TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SKIES BEGIN TO CLOUD OVER ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTING
SIMILAR LOWS WITH READINGS IN 10 TO 15F RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM/S
MEASURABLE SNOWS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE LINE
AND EVEN THERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING TO HALF
INCH. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY CLEARS SKIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SETS STAGE FOR CLEAR SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AFTER SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY BRINGS
RETURN FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BUT LITTLE MODERATION OF TEMPS UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S STILL
APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE ARRIVAL AND IMPACT OF ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION FROM THE DEEP TROUGH TO
MORE OF A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. OP GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD THE UPPER
WAVE FURTHER WEST AND BRINGS A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE WAVE TRACKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE WAVE WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN BE ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL MIXING OF PRECIP TO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
CRITICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE TO AROUND 1305M FOR ABOUT 6-12
HOURS. SHOULD THIS COME TO PASS...SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT TYPE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY
STAGE...WILL CARRY A RA/SN MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH WITH SNOW OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM THAT
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IF PRECIP
REMAINS LARGELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE DAYS TO COME.

BEHIND THE SATURDAY STORM...COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN AS THE
POLAR VORTEX PINWHEELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS IN
THE 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S BY
MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 540 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...BRINGING A NARROW SWATH OF
IFR...POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 100600Z. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST KBMG WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE CONDITIONS...WITH A LESSER THREAT AT
KHUF/KIND. A SHIFT NORTH IN THE TRACK WILL RESULT IN IFR
VISIBILITIES AT KHUF/KIND AS WELL...BUT THIS SEEMS A LESS LIKELY
OUTCOME AT THIS POINT. THE THREAT FOR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT THE
TAF SITES BY 101200Z.

CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 050 TONIGHT EXCEPT IN
HEAVIER SNOW AREAS.

NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 101200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/CP
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

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