Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230316
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1016 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Persistent frontal zone that has been in the region for the past
several days will continue to influence the area, lifting back
northward again as another wave of low pressure moves along it
late tonight into Friday, producing another round of rainfall. A
brief break will follow with only chances for rain south Friday
afternoon and evening, followed by another more substantial low
pressure system late Friday night into Saturday night, bringing
another round of potentially significant rainfall. This rain will
likely exacerbate ongoing flooding on area waterways and may
produce flood problems in other areas as well. Will carry a flood
watch beginning this evening through Saturday night from Indy
metro southward as a result.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Expect another round of rainfall mainly late tonight as another
impulse pushes northeast along the quasistationary front that has
been in the region for the last several days. Convective indices
suggest thunder is at least an outside threat late tonight across
the southern half of the area, and will carry a slight chance
there.

This round of rainfall may amount to as much as an inch to an inch
and a half in spots.

Consensus temperatures seemed reasonable with minor tweaks. Warm
advection ongoing through the night will prevent temperatures from
dropping much from afternoon highs, and surface wetbulb progs with
widespread rainfall expected also agree relatively well with
consensus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Focus then shifts particularly to late Friday night into Saturday
night. Will have to carry at least some chances Friday afternoon
and evening across the south, but the next substantial round of
rainfall will come during that aforementioned time frame. A more
substantial low pressure system will begin to wrap up over the
Plains as the western upper level trough finally begins to push
eastward. This round of significant rainfall will again be focused
mainly across the central and southern portions of the area, with
the southern half of the area again seeing the highest totals. See
the hydrology section below for more.

Thunder will be a threat again, mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening, and day 3 convective outlook brings a marginal severe
risk into our south which is reasonable given the low level
dynamic environment, although as is often the case this time of
year, degree of destabilization will be the limiting factor.

Precipitation will come to a close late Saturday night and Sunday
looks to be a dry day in the wake of the cold front.

Consensus temperatures were generally in the ballpark with minor
tweaks, although I suspect Sunday max temps will need to come down
as model consensus forms around frontal passage time - may see
only minor warming during the day with cold advection ongoing.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Dry weather is expected Sunday night through Tuesday. Late Tuesday
night moisture begins to arrive as the high pressure moves out of
our area. Models have pops returning as a warm front moves in from
the SW. The ECMWF shows several short waves arriving Tuesday night
through Wednesday night providing forcing for rain along with the
warm front which is reflected in the pops in the middle of next
week.

Thursday, a cold front will move into central Indiana bringing
more chances for rain... mainly early in the day.

Given the warm air advection, above normal temperatures are
expected much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/03Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1009 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Update...
Conditions are currently at IFR category at KIND.

Previous Discussion...
Conditions will deteriorate further to IFR/LIFR levels for most of
the TAF period as the environment remains saturated and
disturbances pass through it. Meanwhile, winds will start out
southeasterly and gradually veer to the west. Sustained speeds
will range between 5 to 10 kts. But, low level wind shear could be
a factor around daybreak tomorrow as a low level jet drifts over
the TAF sites.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ045>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...KH/JP
AVIATION...TDUD



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