Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 212033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP

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