Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 251933
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

CLEARING LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM
MODELS...MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 260000Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON/T FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION. THE GFS MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

MODEL DATA INDICATE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES AND UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A UPPER SYSTEM THAT
SHEARS OUT FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUFFICIENT
LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS GOING AT
THAT TIME. HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE ABOUT DONE BY SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THIS MAY TOO FAST. WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY SNEAK IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL.

THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. DECIDED TO NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT A CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES
MODERATE WEDNESDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE EUROPEAN...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL
HAVE THE REGIONS WEATHER CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THEY ALSO
FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES. WITH THEM ALL
PREDICTING ABOUT THE SAME THING...PROBABLY THAT WILL HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SO
EXTREME AS TO MAKE A TOTAL DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER INDIANA GETS.
STILL...THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IS GREATER THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z AT HUF AND BMG AND 22Z
AT IND AND LAF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
18 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND STAY ABOVE 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.