Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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