Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261721
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
121 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the Holiday weekend
and the middle of next week. Also...occasional weak upper
disturbances will also combine with the soupy atmosphere to touch
off a few thunderstorms from time to time.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with afternoon highs
in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s on tap.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

.UPDATE...An area of thunderstorms across eastern and southern Indiana will spread
into western Indiana in the next few hours and across the rest of our
area early this afternoon.  The rapid resfresh indicates this area over
time...especially across the north by this afternoon.  Will raise POPS
to likely category for a few hours to accompany this area of thunderstorms.

After this area moves through...high resolution short term models indicate
a LULL which may extend into this evening.  Lowered temperatures slightly
but still in the lower to middle 80s.


Portion of previous near term dicsussion follows...
Should see a lot of clouds today...but should see enough breaks in
the sunshine to see temperatures at least as warm as 00z MOS if not
warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s looking good.
Meanwhile...with a light southerly wind and lower to mid 60 dew
points...overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s look like a good bet
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday night/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

The same issues will carry over to the short term...as the
Southwestern upper low opens up and gets shunted north by a strong
Eastern ridge but another large scale trough takes over across
California. The result will be the same with a series of weak
upperwaves slingshotted northeast from the base of the trough to the
OhioValley and Great Lakes. At the same time...the Bermuda High
keepsthe low level flow southerly ahead of a stalled Plains front.
This will keep the threat of storms around through the short term
and beyond. The devil will be in the details with the timing of each
impulse. With no significant wave to key in on...will continue with
chance pops through Saturday night with the best chances in the PM.

With air mass unchanged...persistence a good bet with highs in the
lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through next Wednesday/...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Ensembles in fairly good agreement during this period. An upper
trough is expected to eject into the western Great Lakes during
the day Sunday. Will keep chance PoPs going on Sunday to cover
this feature.

Looking like there may be a relative lull in the convective threat
from about Sunday night into Tuesday as heights build a bit in
the wake of the weekend trough. Ensembles are trending drier
during this period, but there are still quite a few members that
suggests widely scattered diurnal type convection is possible.
Will keep some small chance PoPs mainly during the daytime periods
on Monday and Tuesday for now, but could be taken out at a later
time if trends continue.

Ensembles suggest another upper disturbance may lift northeast
towards the western Great Lakes towards the middle of next week.
Will go with chance PoPs for next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR likely through the period.

Line of storms is pulling away from the terminals at this time,
although light rain with an occasional rumble of thunder is expected
for the next hour or so at IND/BMG. High resolution models suggest
this will be the only significant convective activity through at
least the evening hours across the area.

Winds will generally be 10-12KT or less this afternoon, becoming
more southerly with time. Winds will drop to below 10KT overnight.

Cannot rule out light fog late tonight but will leave this to later
packages at this time as this will depend on the amount of mid and
high cloud streaming into the area late tonight ahead of the next
disturbance.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...NIELD



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