Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROUGHT IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

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