Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 020715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THEY WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 8-14 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ALREADY DOWN TO 2 AT KBMG AND WINDS DROPPING TO CALM
THERE AND AT KHUF THINK A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES IS WORTH MENTIONING IN A TEMPO GROUP. TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5
KFT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO KLAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...CP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.