Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232246
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early part of
the week. A frontal system is expected to move through the area
around Wednesday afternoon and night. Another frontal system may
affect the area towards the end of the week, and on into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Satellite images show high clouds increasing farther north and west
than expected, and webcam images show some of these clouds are
thick. Thus have upped sky cover where needed. More adjustments may
be needed depending on how far these clouds get.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry conditions expected tonight as surface high pressure holds
locally. High level cloud over the eastern zones should drift off to
the east during the early evening hours as Tennessee Valley upper
low drifts off to the southeast.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight, so
any adjustments will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Appears surface and upper ridging will hold across the area through
Tuesday night, so will continue with a dry forecast in those
periods. By Wednesday, models suggest a short wave trough will lift
northeast out of the Plains towards the western Great Lakes. The
associated surface front and organized lift looks to arrive either
Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. Will go with chance PoPs on
Wednesday, and higher PoPs Wednesday night when the bulk of the lift
is expected to move through.

Model data suggest sufficient lapse rates and deep shear for a
severe threat may be present ahead of mid week cold front, so will
have to keep an eye on this over the next couple of days.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods looks reasonable for the most part, so
little, if any, adjustments will be made.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night Through Sunday/...

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

ECMWF suggests a strong negatively tilted trough moving into the
Ohio valley on Wednesday night into THursday along with an strong
area of Low pressure to the northwest. This system will have ample
dynamics and good moisture available...resulting in showers and
storms...confidence is growing.

Through Saturday...the ECMWF suggests High pressure building
aloft...pushing a strong ridge of high pressure aloft through the
Ohio Valley. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is suggested to sag into
Indiana from the northwest on Saturday into Sunday. While Indiana
will remain within the warm sector during this time...little support
aloft appears available. Because of this...confidence is lower than
models are suggesting for precipitation next weekend.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 240000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

High clouds will move across parts of the area this evening, with
perhaps some mid and high clouds returning Monday afternoon.

Dry air will remain at the low levels, and this plus expected winds
will keep fog away. Gusty winds should diminish by valid time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...50


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