Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 302336
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN...AN AMPLIFYING ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH
WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN...MODELS ALSO BRING SOME QPF
TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INTENSIFYING ONTARIO TROUGH AND AREA OF 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS. WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE HOURLY POPS.

MOS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...ENOUGH SO TO USE A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LOOMING HALLOWEEN STORM
THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S FROM 22Z-00Z AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO
30 WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE TRICK OR TREAT HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERN ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...1000-850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 20Z OR SO. MODEL 1000-850
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS BRING THE 1300 METER LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME AS WELL. THAT AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...
WITH NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ONLY DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY. WITH
WARM GROUNDS...DO NOT THINK THE SNOW WILL STICK.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRING IN DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. BLEND LOOKS GOOD ON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST
OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY.
THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT SITES FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 14 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. A FEW FLURRIES
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS BY TOMORROW EVENING...KEEPING
CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD

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