Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEAST
WINDS.

THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY RETURNS
AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WAS
IN PLACE PROVIDING AND EASTERLY FLOW TO SERN UNITED STATES AND A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD AMID THE FLOW ALOFT. RADAR WAS QUIET AND DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE IN THE MOIST LOWER 60S.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADS TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE...THAT WILL JUST BE GRAVY IN THE CONVECTION/PRECIP CHANCES.

THUS WILL TREND FOR POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE
TO NO ADVECTION APPEARS IN PLACE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY STATE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. GFS AND
NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO EDGE EAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING DYNAMICS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED FACTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION ALSO. THUS
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
THE CATEGORICAL POPS OF THE MAVMOS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN
MAVMOS.

RAINS FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY APPEAR QUIET FAVORABLE ALSO. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
DEEP SATURATION...WITH CAPE AVAILABLE LOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE
FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.70-1.80
INCHES. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
SATURDAY HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AS A NEW AIR MASS IN INTRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SHOW SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY OUT QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
TROUGHING ALOFT APPEARS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE COOLER AND DRIER...CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES
PLACE...PROVIDING FURTHER DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. THUS OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES LINGERING ON
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
COOLER NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL ALSO TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW
MAVMOS/MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL
CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

APPEARS ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO THE
AREA AROUND UPPER LOW TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER HIGH OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP.
MAY START TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 291700Z. HOWEVER...DON/T
REALLY SEE A CLEAR CUT TRIGGER OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A CB
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CB BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY CONTINUE PAST 300000Z WITH A POSSIBLE
UPPER WAVE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 160-190 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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