Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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898
FXUS63 KIND 250756
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
356 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A strong upper trough over the great lakes and high pressure over the
northern plains will keep it cool and mostly dry through mid week.
However an upper disturbance moving across the middle Mississippi
and Ohio valley will produce a chance of showers and a few storms
late Monday.

The high pressure system and upper trough will move on to the east
and warmer and more humid weather will return for the second half of
this week.  A frontal system will move towards Indiana towards next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Satellite indicated a band of mid clouds across the southern great
lakes...northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois...while mostly
clear skies were occurring elsewhere.

The area of clouds to our northwest was associated with a dry
secondary cold front which will move southeast across our region
today.   Will go with partly cloudy skies over northern sections and
mostly sunny south with highs from the lower 80s north to around 80
southwest.   Could see wind gusts up to 25 mph north later today...
but overall it will be pleasant and mild today.

Tonight will be clear with lows in the lower to middle 60s as high
pressure over the plains builds into the middle Mississippi and Ohio
valley late tonight.   In most cases stayed close to a MOS blend
on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Main focus will be on temperatures through the period and rain
chances Monday afternoon and night.

A strong upper trough will remain over the great great lakes next few
days and then move on to the east by mid week.  Models indicate an
upper disturbance will move into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio
valley late Monday.   They have trended a little wetter last few
runs and will go with chance POPS most areas late Monday afternoon
and evening.   Otherwise...high pressure will bring dry weather over
rest of the period as it moves east across our region.

A cool air mass will remain across the region with 850 MB
temperatures as cool as +6.   This will translate to highs of 70 to
75 Monday and in the 70s again Tuesday.   Lows will range from 50 to
55 Monday night and lower to middle 50s Tuesday.

Skies will be partly cloudy Monday afternoon and evening and mostly
clear most other periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The extended period will start out with a large area of surface
high pressure encompassing the eastern third of the U.S. and weak
ridging aloft over the Ohio Valley. However, the pattern will
quickly become more active by Wednesday night as a low pressure
system moves into the Great Lakes Region. The highest
precipitation chances will initially be over the northern half of
central Indiana, but shower and thunderstorm chances will spread
across the entire forecast area by Thursday morning. At that
point, perturbations both at the surface and aloft will keep
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the remainder of
the forecast period, ending across the northern half though by
Saturday. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be at or
just slightly below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600z TAFs/...

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR Conditions are expected to continue this TAF period. GOES16
shows clear skies across the area. With dew points in the lower
50s...fog is not expected overnight. Forecast soundings and Time
heights continue to suggest a dry column.

Forecast soundings on Sunday afternoon suggest some afternoon CU
will be possible as convectiove temperatures will be reached.
Howevera mid level inversion should prevent any deep convection.
Thus VFR with the occasional passing CI and/or afternoon SCT CU.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP



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