Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010148
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



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