Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 102337
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
635 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Dry conditions will prevail tonight, but another quick upper low
will bring snow showers to portions of central Indiana tomorrow
evening and night.  Further out, additional upper waves will
continue to rotate through the area in the wake of the main upper
trough. So, additional chances for snow showers (N) and rain/snow
showers (S) will be possible Thursday, and then rain showers on
Saturday.  Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will
generally be below normal for the short term period, then near
normal in the extended period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

With little cloud cover expected tonight and winds becoming light to
calm, lowered overnight lows a coouple of degrees. This also matched
better adjacent offices. One caveat would be if the low clouds
overning northern Indiana make it into our northern counties. If so,
temperatures will have a hard time reaching forecasted lows.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Ridging will strengthen at the surface tonight in the wake of
today`s surface trough. As a result, it will be a mostly clear
and cold night with temperatures plummeting into the low to mid
20s. Nonetheless, clouds will start to increase a bit over the
northern half of the forecast area though by daybreak as the next
upper level low approaches the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Wednesday/...

Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be snow showers with
a quick upper low on Monday evening and night.

Time cross sections indicate best upward vertical velocity during
the Tue 03-09Z time frame over the northern half of central
Indiana with aforementioned upper low. The environment is now
conducive to an all snow event, but limited moisture will result
in little to no snow accumulation.

Light snow showers will linger across the northeastern counties
into Tuesday as an additional upper wave clips northwest Indiana.
However, dry conditions will then prevail from that point on with
weak ridging aloft. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period
will generally be below normal, especially on Tuesday when a surge
of colder air keeps high temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night Through Sunday/...
Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Models are close enough with the big picture that the model blend
initialization was accepted for most items.

The large upper trough that has been hanging around the area lately
will finally decide to move on toward the end of the long term, to
be replaced by another, broader upper trough.

Various impulses will move through these troughs, bringing the
potential for some precipitation at times. Of course the models
still have different ideas on when these will move through and how
much if any precipitation falls. Thus confidence remains low in
precipitation chances, so will accept the intialization with no
changes.

With the first upper trough exiting the area, milder air will be
able to return to the area by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/00Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 547 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Would rule out MVFR ceilings at KIND and KLAF 02z-09z per Satellite
and ob trends as well as the SREF and GFS LAMP. However, odds are
still better that the terminals will just see mid and high clouds
through the TAF period.

Winds will be less than 10 knots generally from the west tonight and
south and southwest after 15z Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK



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