Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HZ/SMOKE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUN
UP UNTIL AFTER MIXING RESUMES. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 13Z-14Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

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