Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251859
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A series of low pressure systems will provide frequent chances for
rain across central Indiana for the next week. Temperatures will
remain above average through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Early this morning a surface front was stalled just northwest of
central Indiana, and the front stretched back to an area of low
pressure in Missouri. An upper low was back in Oklahoma. The bulk of
rainfall was back near the Mississippi River and moving north
northeast.

The surface front shouldn`t make any more progress southeast as the
surface low continues to move northeast. Meanwhile, expect the bulk
of the rain across Illinois to continue to move more north than east
given the expected forcing and upper flow. Thus will start the day
off with chance PoPs west to slight chance or dry east.

Forcing will only slowly work its way east today as the system moves
slowly toward the area. Thus will only gradually increase PoPs from
west to east today. By 18Z will have likely PoPs extreme west with
PoPs lowering to the east.

By the end of the Today period will have likely PoPs west half and
chance east half as better forcing finally arrives.

Instability will increase today allowing for thunderstorms to spread
east during the day. Storm Prediction Center has the far southwest
counties in a Marginal Risk for the potential of an isolated severe
storm with damaging winds this afternoon.

Again today some of the stronger winds aloft could mix down and
bring surface gusts around 30 MPH.

For temperatures, generally went above the model blend for highs
given the blend`s performance on Friday. Once again if cloud cover
is less than expected temperatures will exceed the forecast and
could get closer to the warm MET MOS numbers in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Tonight the upper and surface lows will move to near the Mississippi
River. Thus expect continued forcing across central Indiana as the
system moves closer to the area. Will continue likely category or
higher PoPs through the night.

As the upper low moves into Indiana Sunday high PoPs will continue,
especially during the first half of the day. During Sunday evening,
only the east half of the area will see some low PoPs as the system
exits.

The brief dry period overnight Sunday night will give way to more
chances for rain Monday and Monday night as another system moves in.
The upper system doesn`t look as strong as the first one, but
forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday Night/...

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in dry
conditions from Tuesday through Wednesday. The pattern will
change, however, on Wednesday night as a low pressure system
tracks from the Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Latest
model runs have the track taking more of a southerly route with
highest rain chances now south of the forecast area. Nonetheless,
latest Superblend initialization still has likely pops across the
southern portions of Central Indiana at times from Thursday
through Friday. Rain chances will not decrease until Friday night.
Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be above normal
as Central Indiana falls into the warm sector of the
aforementioned system.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 251800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop, so will
keep thunderstorms out of the TAFs until after 20z. Instability
progs suggest there will be a thunder chance through 02-03z. Flying
conditions will start as VFR but could deteriorate to MVFR or worse
in storms and especially after 02z. Did not put thunder in the TAFS
on Sunday, but thunder can not be ruled out after 15z.

Winds will be south up to 15 knots with gusts up to 26 knots through
21-22z. Then winds will be south and southeast less than 10 knots.
less tonight


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK


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