Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 302230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT. MODEL DATA INDICATE MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
LIFT/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA.

MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
OF 35-40 KTS WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THE JET...DON/T SEE REALLY SEE ANYTHING
ELSE TO TRIGGER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH GOOD LIFT MOVE INTO
THE AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS BY THAT TIME. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON
TUESDAY LOOK OK...BUT THEY MAY BE A LITTLE WARM IN THE SOUTH. WILL
NUDGE THE NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE THERE. THE MOS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THE MOS LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS LOOK TOO WARM AS WELL...SO WILL CUT THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS IN THOSE PERIODS SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SURFACE WAVES
TRACKING ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD REMAIN FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH. A SECONDARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. WILL MAINTAIN HEALTHY POPS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE AND FRONT
SHIFT EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED
MODELS ADVERTISING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 302100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE PERIOD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. MID AND HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THEN TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY VALID TIME AND THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE GUSTS MAY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR 50KT
NEAR 1500-2000FT. WILL ADD IN LLWS AFTER 06Z. IF SURFACE GUSTS
PERSIST THEN WILL REMOVE LLWS LATER. GUSTS WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

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