Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 272236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PRODUCE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD TOWARDS INDIANA BY SATURDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR REGION.  BUT WITH
SUNSET CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  WILL SLOW
DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT BY LATE TONIGHT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR.  LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  GIVEN THE LATE
MARCH SUNSHINE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO
THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL A MOS BLEND IN THE LOWER 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY END ANY CHANCES OF RAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS THEN MOVE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODELS HINT AT PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THUS...REMOVED POP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY. 00Z EURO DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...DROPPING THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 12Z GFS HOWEVER
SPREADS THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...ALLOWING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH
INCLUDES INCREASED POP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OWING TO WAA
SHOWERS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY. THE 00Z
EURO IS APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND IMPACTS.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CURRENTLY EXPECT THUNDER AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR FRIDAY...00Z EURO
BRINGS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OCCURRING AND THE 12Z GFS
DIFFERS...FILTERING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FROM CHANCE INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN EURO SOLUTION NOT HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S CHARACTERIZE THE
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET. ANY IMPACT ON CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF OR NEGLIGIBLE.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY 350-020 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JAS

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