Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 131012
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
612 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE 40S. NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WEAKENED. SO...SENT UPDATE WITH NO POPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES. CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST SOME DIURNAL CU IS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE DAY AND SUGGESTS A BLEND OF THE
WARMER 00Z GFS MOS AND COOLER 00Z NAM MOS LOOKS GOOD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

WILL NEED TO ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF SHOWERS...AS RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THEY WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH 6
OR 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH EARLY WEEK SHOWER CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DRY AND CONTINUED COOL WEATHER WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
THEN...MODELS BRING A SHARP UPPER WAVE IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS.
WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AND
ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES WITH A MOS BLEND OF MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH LOOKING
GOOD. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE 70S EXCEPT PERHAPS UPPER 60S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT UPPER 60S NORTHEAST PER
REGIONAL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 130900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA TO
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND ARE LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
12Z.

CEILINGS VARIED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VISIBILITIES WERE
UNRESTRICTED. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO START RISING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNUP. BY LATE MORNING DRY AIR INFILTRATION SHOULD PRODUCE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.