Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MID WEEK. MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL THEN
SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL USE PRE-
FIRST PERIOD WORDING TO COVER THE LINE AT ISSUANCE TIME AND POPS
THEN WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF THE LINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BY
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY BUILDS THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. 850MB WINDS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE
TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES JUST OUT OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MEANDER
NORTH JUST FAR ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL SETUP
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM/CANADIAN FARTHER NORTH AND GFS/ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WENT LIKELY POPS SOUTH HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH. WILL LIKELY ADJUST THESE
POPS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

CUT MOS TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
AROUND. OTHERWISE STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS INFLUENCING THE RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE EURO HOLDS STEADY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN A
WETTER SOLUTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH...THEN DRYING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION FAVORS THIS TREND.

WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR TO START AT THE SITES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA COULD SINK SOUTH INTO KLAF AND POSSIBLY KIND
AROUND/AFTER 7Z AT KLAF AND 9Z AT KIND. HARD TO TELL IF THESE STORMS
WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANY OF THE SITES WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MORE CIN AS YOU HEAD SOUTHEAST AND SO STILL WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT KHUF OR KBMG. AT KIND WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS. AT KLAF COULD STILL KEEP A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP IN AS IT HAS
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THUNDER BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS
THAN IN PREVIOUS ISSUANCES.

FOR MONDAY SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT MENTION AT
ANY OF THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AT LEAST AT KLAF AND
KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...CP


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