Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS AROUND THE AREA.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. SEEING ECHOES INTO FAR WESTERN
INDIANA BUT APPEARS MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...
OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. VERY UN MAY-LIKE AS OF 14Z
WITH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE 40S WITH A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER WAVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS
UP AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. DELAYED ONSET OF POPS BY AN HOUR
OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

OTHER BIG CHANGE IS WITH TEMPS. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM
CONSIDERING PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL PRECIP. BUMPED ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DOWN 2-3
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS...AND MAY NEED TO BUMP DOWN FURTHER. EXPECT
MAINLY MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S. INTERESTINGLY...INDY HAS FAILED
TO REACH 55 DEGREES FOR A HIGH ON MAY 20 ONLY TWICE IN RECORDED
HISTORY. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE THREATENED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A
BLEND WAS USED.

LIFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. FORCING QUICKLY DEPARTS SO WILL GO DRY MOST
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND SO
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WENT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST FOR
HIGHS SINCE THEY WILL SEE MORE SUN. THIS ENDS UP NOT FAR FROM MAV
MOS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT
NOT HAVE ANY FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH IT. CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OHIO SATURDAY MOVES ON TO THE EAST.  MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS INDIANA SUNDAY AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BECOME STALLED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 00Z EURO LOOKS QUITE WET AND THE GEMNH IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  AIRMASS IS FAIRLY STABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...SO DOWN PLAYED MENTION OF THUNDER THEN.
OTHERWISE...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE LONG TERM AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY RISING TO THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 60S REST OF THE LONG TERM.
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES IN MOST
CASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 101500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY 08Z...BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 8
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/JK

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