Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290638
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

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