Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 210826
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...Near Term...Short Term and Aviation sections have been
updated below.ection has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Low pressure developing over the central plains will move to the
great lakes by Monday night and up the St. Lawrence valley Tuesday
and Wednesday.  A trailing cold front will push east across our area
late Monday.

Temperatures will continue to warm today into early Tuesday and then
become cooler by Tuesday.

An area of high pressure will move east across the Ohio valley by
Thursday.  Another area of low pressure will bring rain showers and
mild temperatures our way by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Surface charts indicated a deepening area of low pressure over
southwest Kansas and Southeast Colorado.  This area of low pressure
was pulling very mild and moist air north into Indiana.  This has
resulted in areas of fog developing over northern and central
sections.

For today...areas of fog and drizzle will be the rule.  Low
visibilities will be a concern especially this morning.  However so
far dense fog has not been widespread and do not plan to issue a
dense fog advisory until dense fog increases.  There may be some
improvement over central and southern sections by this afternoon as
some mixing occurs.   Otherwise...areas of drizzle will be the rule
as warm advection occurs along with a moist air mass. Went close to
a MOS blend on highs today.

Models indicate the southerly flow will increase tonight which may
help with the fog. Will keep patchy fog over north and central
sections until late tonight.   Models indicate better UVV tonight
with increased warm advection resulting in better rain chances
especially northwest half.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s and went slightly above MOS
temperatures with clouds and strong warm advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Strong low pressure will move across the upper midwest into the
Great lakes Monday.   A trailing cold front will push east across
Indiana Monday.  Models indicate number showers will occur and there
may be just enough instability to mention isolated thunder over
western sections Monday morning.

The low pressure system will move east across the great lakes
Monday night and a cold front extending south across Indiana will
move east.  An upper low over northern Illinois will produce numerous
light showers over northern sections and scattered showers in the
south.   Model soundings and BUFKIT indicate a change over to snow
showers by daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday...will be much cooler with scattered light snow showers.
The ground should be fairly warm which should limit accumulations.
However far northern sections could see up to a half inch Tuesday.

Cut daytime temperatures slightly Tuesday with strong cold advection.

Only other change was to increase wind speeds Monday into Tuesday
as models indicate a fairly strong pressure gradient. In most cases
used CONSALL winds instead of Superblend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 251 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

As has been the case the past few days, the main storm track has
shifted to more of a west-to-east across the CONUS. This has
moderated temperatures and it looks like, for the most part, this
will be the case through this period.

Wednesday will start off with a mid/upper level trough effecting
the earlier periods moving off to the east and high pressure
centered over the mid/southern Plains moving eastward into the
Tennessee Valley to the south. This will result in a dry period
through Thursday with temperatures around normal for Wednesday,
then warming to the mid-upper 40s during the day as the high moves
off to the east.

A minor wave at mid levels is forecast by the models to move
northeast through the area going into Friday, but no precipitation
is expected at this time. As this feature minors out Friday
afternoon, the next mid/upper level trough will move in for the
later periods with warm air advection ahead of the accompanying
frontal boundary late Friday/early Saturday. As with the frontal
boundary earlier in the week, this next cold front will result in
widspread rain and possibly isolated thunderstorm with it as it
enters the state Saturday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday
and Saturday will be well above normal with 50s in the southern
half of our area and low temperatures in the low-mid 30s Friday
and in the 40s going into Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 210900z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

High confidence in poor flying conditions through the overnight
and much of the day on Sunday. Visibilities will be running around
and under 1SM at all sites but KBMG through the night with drizzle
and fog. Ceilings will likely be around 300 ft, again with the
exception of KBMG. Conditions at KLAF will worsen through the
night, and KBMG will likely worsen near daybreak. Visibilities
will improve during the day on Sunday, but ceilings will remain
LIFR.

A low level jet will bring LLWS to all sites but KLAF through the
night and much of Sunday. Chances for widespread rain will
increase Sunday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...CP/JH


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