Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250220
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1020 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through into early
Wednesday. A frontal system is expected to pass through the area
Wednesday night or Thursday. Another frontal system may affect the
area towards the end of the week, and on into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is in good shape and only made some minor adjustments.
Adjusted sky cover to reflect current batch of clouds across the
south central part of the area. These are already showing some signs
of dissipation. Thus didn`t have to adjust much past the next few
hours.

Tweaked low temperatures where needed, but no significant changes
made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected through tonight as surface high pressure ridge
holds over the area. Some potential exists for low cloud cover
currently over eastern Kentucky to advect into the eastern zones
later tonight as low level flow veers. Will allow for some increased
lower cloud cover late tonight, especially over the eastern zones.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look OK
for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Lingering lower cloud cover over the area Tuesday morning should
gradually burn off during the day. Otherwise, expecting dry
conditions to continue into Wednesday as surface and upper ridging
hold.

Model data continue to suggest a slower frontal passage later this
week as the front encounters upper ridging along the East Coast,
with most of the data indicating frontal passage either Wednesday
night or Thursday. As a result, will back off on the PoPs on
Wednesday more into the afternoon hours, and also delay the highest
PoPs to late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS
temperature guidance in the later periods. Will nudge up the
guidance highs on Wednesday and the lows Wednesday night some given
an anticipated slower frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THursday Night through Monday/...

Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Active weather is expected through much of this period. ECMWF
depicts SW flow in place aloft along with a warm and moist
southerly flow into the Ohio Valley through the weekend. This will
result in warmer and more humid conditions along with daily
chances for showers showers and storms.

At this time...best chances look to be on Saturday night through
early Monday as a frontal boundary sags southward toward Indiana
while Low pressure develops in the central Plains. The ECMWF
suggests the low drags the cold front across Indiana on Sunday
night which should lead to showers and storms given the warm and
humid air mass ahead of the front. Confidence in specific timing
and overall pattern remains low due to a lack of run to run
consistency.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250300Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Made some minor changes to reflect current conditions.

Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions expected, but some hours of MVFR cannot be completely
ruled out at KIND/KBMG.

Moisture continues to flow west into the area, but satellite images
show that lower cloud cover coming in isn`t extensive. Some models
are overdoing coverage of lower clouds at the moment as well.

Meanwhile, short term models are coming in with higher ceilings than
previous. This looks reasonable given what`s upstream. Therefore
have removed MVFR conditions from the TAFs. However, confidence is
moderate at best. Will continue to monitor.

Lower VFR clouds should scatter out during the day Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...50


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