Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SNOW
EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
WARMING...AND SOME OF THE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAKENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE SAW ENOUGH SNOW TO LOWER THE
VISIBILITY BELOW 2SM WITH VERY WEAK ECHOES EARLIER.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WILL ADD MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
ABOUT 14Z. WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY LATER.

OTHERWISE TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT
WARM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER EXISTS. TRIMMED IT
BACK A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN TO
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MAV MOS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AFTER REACHING LOWS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
ONLY WENT POPS AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE STILL IS NOT GREAT SO ONLY WENT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO JUST GO RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT
MOISTURE STILL NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO KEPT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LATE AFTERNOON.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THURSDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE
A COLD START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MAINTAINING DRY CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH DAYS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS RANGING FROM A SUPPRESSED SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TO A MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGING A GREATER
IMPACT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS
TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND A BROAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW
AS IT STANDS NOW WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CHANGES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP IN
MIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARM
INTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENS
HERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONE
IN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD THINGS COME
TOGETHER FOR A PREDOMINANT SNOW EVENT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES AND DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY...A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEAK UPPER WAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KIND. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 12-13Z AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEPART WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE
PREVALENT THIS MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DECK UP TO
1500-2000FT BY MIDDAY.

STRATOCU DECK WILL SCATTER BY LATE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE. N/NE WINDS AT
5-10KTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

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