Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231100
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front is forecast to cross Indiana today, causing widespread
showers and thunderstorms.  High pressure will move in from the
northwest overnight. The high should control Hoosier weather into
Sunday, when another cold front is going to pass.

A new high pressure system is predicted to arrive from the west
Monday, and be moving off the east of our state by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today and tonight)...

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The main issue is the threat of heavy rain.

The models have been consistent about rain spreading over the entire
CWA, but decreasing rapidly toward evening and ending by midnight.
By morning we should be clear.

The models have also been consistent with their QPF, with storm
totals of over 2 inches in the south, but much lower to the
northwest.

The earlier forecast, including the Flash Flood Watch, doesn`t need
major changes.  The biggest element of uncertainty is whether it
will be possible cancel parts of the watch as the day goes on. Any
cancellations will be in the northern and western parts of the
current watch area.

Guidance temperatures are close and look reasonable considering
current observations and that there won`t much sun today.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Saturday through Sunday night)...

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The forecast problem is POPs Saturday night and Sunday.

There is good agreement Saturday should be dry. Some models
introduce a slight chance of rain Saturday night, but the
consensus does not. There isn`t an obvious mechanism to fire
storms then that won`t also be acting earlier when heating would
favor convection. The dry consensus will be used.

A low chance is in order for the north late Sunday when a
secondary front will be present.

With the ground wet from today`s rain, but drier air arriving,
we`ll see partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights from cumulus.

With the models similar about temperatures, the consensus
forecast should be accurate to within about 2 degrees. Late in
the weekend, it will feel more like mid May than late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A strong upper trough over the great lakes will dominate our weather
early next week as high pressure over the middle Mississippi valley
builds east across Kentucky and Tennessee.  The GFS and Euro models
indicate a few showers are possible part of our area Monday
afternoon and evening as a weak upper disturbance moves our way.
Will mention a slight chance of showers north and central sections
Monday afternoon and a slight chance of evening showers west half
Monday evening.   Otherwise...high pressure will bring dry and quiet
weather through Wednesday as it moves on to the east.

High pressure will move on to the east coast and an increasing
southerly flow will allow Gulf moisture to spread north into our
region by Thursday.  Models indicate an unstable air mass by then
and will mention a chance of thunderstorms after the middle of next
week.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal early next week warming to
near normal by days 6 and 7 as the upper trough moves on to.
the east.  Overall Superblend temperatures seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 231200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

MVFR ceilings and occasionally IFR ceilings with showers and
thunderstorms today improving to VFR tonight.

A cold front over northwest Indiana will move south across the
region today as the remains of tropical storm Cinty move northeast
across Tennessee and Kentucky.  Will see an increase in showers and
thunderstorms today as these systems merge.  Could be heavy rainfall
at times with IFR visibilities.

Drier air will spread in from the northwest with clouds scattering
out.  Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will become northwest 5 to 10
knots late today and tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for INZ052>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



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