Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 041632
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER MICHIGAN AND BROAD...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK AND LIGHT SW FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE AS DEW POINTS REMAINED VERY MOIST IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIR MASS AND OVERALL PATTERN...WILL
CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GOOD MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG. THUS AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE OVER THE REGION.
DIURNALLY CHARGED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MOST
AFTERNOONS...AND HAVE HELD ONTO THESE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME. ALSO PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM EARLY EACH MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND THE DEW POINTS HIGH. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...TRENDED TOWARD EXPECTED
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS (UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90) AND LOWS (UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FLATTENS OUT AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE HOWEVER THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A COOLER
ONE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
HIGHS SHOULD STALL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR.

SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR KLAF...BUT
ODDS OF THEM HITTING A TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

SHALLOW GROUND FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND.
PUT MVFR FOG WITH MENTION OF DENSE SHALLOW FOG. THIS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY...BY 13Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.