Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 171109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
610 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Mid/Upper level trough over the ARKLATEX region on recent
satellite imagery is moving slowly northeast this morning toward
the lower OH Valley region. Surface analysis shows a
quasistationary frontal boundary lying E-W across northern IN.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Mid/upper level shortwave trough will gradually dampen out as it
becomes part of the strong northern branch of the mid level jet
stream that extends over the Ohio Valley region. Infrared
satellite imagery shows large baroclinic leaf signature
associated with the ARKLATEX signature and will result in rain
spreading over the area mainly during this afternoon into the
evening. Clouds and associated rain will keep temperatures in the
40s for today.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday/...

Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

As weakening low pressure moves across southern IN then off to the
east, low clouds and some light rain/drizzle should remain
from cooler air circulating around the backside of the low. Given
the rain producing wet ground and low clouds with light winds,
have collaborated with keeping low clouds, drizzle and fog across
the region for tonight into early Monday morning. Would expect the
possibility of some dense fog especially across urban areas where
the wet comparatively warmer ground is covered by the cooler air
on the backside of the surface system/trough in low levels. This
may impact morning commute on Monday morning before skies
gradually clear by afternoon.

Area will be between systems going into Tuesday as a strong
frontal boundary will be across the Great Lakes westward over
southern WI/northern IL, and a shortwave trough moving in the
southern branch over south central TX. Southwest surface flow
over the southern Plains is forecast over are area providing some
clouds but temperatures in the low-mid 50s for Tuesday providing
the best day in the week before the cooler air to the north drops
into the area.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Extended models indicate a somewhat zonal upper flow Wednesday and
Thursday will become more amplified towards the weekend as a strong
upper trough digs first into the upper midwest and then the great
lakes. Quiet and mild weather will occur Wednesday and Thursday as
an area of low pressure track`s east across the deep south. It now
appears that any precipitation from this will will remain to our

Models indicate an area of low pressure over the central plains
Thursday will track across the upper midwest Friday and into the
great lakes and a trailing cold front will move east across Indiana
Friday night.  Models indicate rain will be possible by Friday
changing to light snow Friday night and then ending.  This seems
reasonable given the above pattern.

Superblend temperatures are least 5 degrees too cool Thursday night
and will raise them to better match MOS and HPC values.  This change
will keep precipitation all liquid Friday morning.  Otherwise...only
minor tweaks made to superblend temperatures in other periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/12Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 610 Am EST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR through 22Z-24Z...then MVFR or IFR after that.

Area of low pressure over the central Mississippi valley will move
east across Indiana later today and light rain will spread our way.
Expect ceilings to gradually lower today...but remaining VFR until
late afternoon.  The light rain will end tonight...but ceilings will
lower as a low level inversion develops.  Expect areas of stratus and
fog later tonight into Monday with some improvement by midday Monday.
Winds will be 8 knots or less through the period.




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