Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1031 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Aviation section updated


Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area through early next week.
A frontal system may affect the area around the middle parts of
next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Let the Frost Advisory expire as temperatures continue to warm.
Upped sky cover some across the far north and northeast today based
on latest satellite images and model data. Otherwise made minor
adjustments to hourly forecasts as bulk of forecast remains in good

Previous discussion follows...

Dry conditions expected today as a surface ridge moves through the
area. Moisture flowing off of Lake Michigan may result in some cloud
cover over the eastern zones through early afternoon, as well as
some mid level cloud at times later today. Partly to mostly sunny
sky conditions should work for today.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look OK.

Persistent patches of cloud cover, especially over the eastern
zones, have been holding up temperatures so far. Plan is to hold onto
the Frost Advisory for now, and watch temperature and cloud cover
trends over the next few hours. Advisory may be cancelled early in
some areas if cloud cover persists too much longer.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period under dry northwest upper
flow and surface high pressure. Model data suggest a weak cold front
may drop through the area around Sunday night, but a generally dry
air mass suggests this front will be inactive.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday
may be a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance highs
a couple of degrees in that period. Rest of the temperature guidance
looks reasonable.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A progressive and some what zonal upper flow will occur during
the long term period.   High pressure over the southern great
lakes Tuesday will dominate our weather as it moves to the east.
This will be followed by a low pressure system which will track
across northern Indiana Wednesday night followed by a weak area
of high pressure which will move into the Ohio valley by Friday.

Models have trended a little slower and wetter with the late
Wednesday system.  Also added mention of isolated thunder
Wednesday afternoon and night with good upper dynamics.

Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and a little above normal
Wednesday through Friday.   Lowered tempertures a little some areas
Tuesday night...Otherwise stayed close to Super Blend initialization.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221500z TAFs/...

VFR Conditions will continue.

NW flow will persist into the afternoon as the surface Ridge over
Illinois slowly progresses eastward. Forecast soundings show
convective temps that are unreachable. Thus only some high clouds
passing from time to time will be expected.

Previous Discussion below

(Discussion for the 221200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR through the period as high pressure ridge across the middle
Mississippi valley and southern Illinois builds east across the
Ohio valley.  Scattered CU possible over northeast sections today.
Otherwise...only a few high clouds...but with scattered mid
clouds possible northern sections late today and tonight.

Northwest winds 5 to 8 knots will become southwest late today.




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