Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 171447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALLOWED THE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 EDT AM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS
OF FOG...BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO CONTINUE CARRYING
AN ADVISORY ANY FURTHER.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TODAY/S HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT HELD OFF ON LOWERING THEM
AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THE NAM AND GEMNH MODELS BRING PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAD WARMER TODAY.  WENT
CLOSE TO A MET MAV BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL THIN
OUT TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
COOLER MET TEMPERATURES THEN.   IT WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.    WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 THURSDAY
AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.   LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT RISING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THERE. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT MUCAPES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. WITH THIS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES STILL THINK
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IS THE WAY TO GO. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT WILL DROP EACH DAY WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS LIFTED AT THE TERMINALS AS OF 1430Z. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CEILINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR CU LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH THE MID DECK AS
WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT THE
SITES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 14Z. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG SOMETIME AFTER
6Z TONIGHT AT THE SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

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