Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221700
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS A WARM
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY...WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NRN INDIANA STRETCHING BACK CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND ONLY A WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH IT/S PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CU WILL
BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND PLENTY OF
SUN...ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S APPEAR RIGHT ON THE
MARK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM FRONT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SUNDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED LIFTING
MECHANISMS IN PLACE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
SLIGHTLY. DO NOT THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL EVEN RECEIVE ANY
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BECOME MUGGIER WITH 40S AND 50S TONIGHT...AND UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
ALL PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE WSW ACROSS
THE AREA...WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON...CIRRUS
TONIGHT...AND FEW TO SCATTERED CU AGAIN TOMORROW WITH MORE HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP

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