Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 172026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
424 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017


The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Broad high pressure will remain in control across the area through
the week into the early portion of the weekend, bringing dry
pleasant weather with gradually warming temperatures to central
Indiana. The next chances for precipitation will come late
Saturday night into early next week as a frontal system moves into
the area.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 300 EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Clear skies will generally be the rule through the night with only
a passing high cloud here and there. Thus, expect temperatures to
drop below guidance values yet again, but do not expect them to
get cold enough long enough to promote a significant threat of
frost. Some shallow ground fog may form near daybreak but will be
unlikely to have any impact.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature across the
area through the short term, and thus a dry and clear sky forecast
will continue. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm, and
should be back into the 70s across the entire area by Thursday
afternoon. Made minor adjustments to increase diurnal range, as
guidance was both too warm last night and too cool today.


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A transitional period is expected during this period as warm and
dry weather changes to cooler and wetter weather.

The ECMWF shows strong ridging and surface high pressure departing
the area on Friday Night through Sunday. This results in the
persistent dry weather remaining on Friday Night...however by
Saturday Afternoon and Sunday...southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front will allow warmer more moist air to arrive
in the valley which could lead to shower/storm chances.

In the wake of the cold front on Sunday Night the ECMWF shows the
upper flow becoming more northwesterly with a sharp trough
developing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for Monday and
Tuesday. Forecast Builder mysteriously believes this to be a dry confidence in the builder at that point is low. ECMWF
suggests several embedded short wave to pass on Monday through
Tuesday amid the troughy NW flow. Thus below normal temps along
with daily chances for showers with the passing waves appear
prudent at this juncture.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 172100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 424 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Large...expansive high pressure over the Ohio Valley will remain
in place through this taf period...proving VFR Conditions.

Forecast soundings and Time heights continue to show a very dry
column with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus only clear
skies or a passing CI will be expected from time to time.





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